Saturday 11th May

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 11th May

Postby Devasteve » Sat May 11, 2019 10:03 am

At that stage Martin, things definitely were - but as usual things have gone pear-shaped as the week progressed; you're fortunate that I ddin't have time to post the annual Chester debacle! Just the one race today, and as often with this approach, no definitive selection!

Ascot 16.00 Cl 2 Hcap 654 (110) 7f sf – 27 Run (26 at best)

Last year – 654 (106) gd/fm – 27 ran
Ripp Orf 20/1 4-8-1 (83) Dr 13 by 0.25l from Zhui Feng 28/1 5-9-10 (106) Dr 11
Via Serendipity25/1 4-8-8 (90) Dr 8 was 1.1l 5th
Raising Sand 116/1 6-9-4 (100) Dr 16 was 5.39l 16th
Nicholas T 50/1 6-8-4 (89) Dr 29 was 6.66l 22nd

Consistent from forecast
Presidential 5-8-5 (90) Dr 25
10/1* Cons 7* AB 52 Lto 160 SF 129* Rat 96
Lto: 18 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (160 u) 7f gd/fm Nwmk 16/1 2.75l 3/10 off 91 – 92
slowly into stride, held up in rear, headway over 1f out, 3rd and one pace inside final furlong
2nd Last: 10 Nov Cl 3 Hcap (70 u) 7f sf Donc 9/2 F 2.5l 3/17 off 90 – 93
raced far side, held up and behind, ridden and headway 2f out, stayed on under pressure to chase winner well inside final furlong, lost 2nd post
CB/ 3rd Last: 03 Nov Cl 4 Hcap (60 d) 7f sf Nwmk 15/2 2.25l 1/15 2.25l off 84 – 96*
in touch stands side, led over 1f out, kept on strongly
Joined from the Prendergast yard last year and won 5 of his 17 starts as he made his way up in class in generally consistent fashion; began this season in the same consistent style as he ran well on the fast ground at Newmarket last month before lack of fitness told in the final furlong; should strip fitter today, plus has been dropped 1lb;
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (23 days; down 1lb in OR;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (36) most consistent in the forecast and overall, but not yet among those with highest ability, nor coming from the highest value races lto; nevertheless, has some rating support and considered a contender under favourable conditions (straight 7f on sf).
Blue Mist 4-8-11 (97) Dr 23
11/1* Cons 9* AB 61 Lto 160 SF 127* Rat 103
Lto: 16 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (160 u) 8f AW Kemp 11/4 Jt F 2.5l 4/10 off 97 – 101
raced keenly, held up mid-division on outer, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, soon chased winner, never on terms, lost 2places well inside final furlong
2nd Last/ CB: 05 Oct Cl 3 Stks (100 d) 8f gd Ascot 9/4 F 3.5l 1/11 off 90 – 103*
held up, headway halfway, led over 1f out, ridden and forged clear towards finish
3rd Last: 08 Sept Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (140 d) 8f sf Thir 10/11 F0.75l 2/6 off 88 – 92
tracked leader, effort when edged left and ridden over 1f out, stayed on to challenge and every chance inside final furlong, held towards finish
Showed promise as 2yo and built on that last year winning one of his four starts, over 8f here in October; seems equally at home on AW and turf and does handle sf ground; only worry is he’s never raced over shorter than 8f, and this might get chopped for speed.
Plus: class (F); going (F); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: distance (?); 207 days break; (trainer (14d 1/20);
Verdict: (33) consistent in the forecast, but not among the highest on ability or coming from a the highest value races lto, but does have some rating ability; obviously has more to give, but may just need the race and a question about whether this trip isn’t a little sharp, so not the strongest contender.
Cape Byron 5-9-3 (103) Dr 10
10/1* Cons 11* AB 71 Lto 1120* SF 126* Rat 110*
Lto: 06 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (1120 u) 7f sf Ascot 7/2 F 4.5l 7/15 off 103 – 103
in touch, ridden and headway over 1f out, faded inside final furlong
2nd Last / CB: 08 Sept (500 d) 7f gd/fm Ascot 9/2 F 0.5l 2/20 off 101 – 110*
raced centre, held up, good headway chasing leaders over 1f out, led group inside final furlong, ran on but not quite pace of winner
As often the case, mid-season gelding got his mind back on the job and ran with distinction over C&D here last September when just going down to Ripp Orf (-11) on fast ground; meets him on 3lbs better terms today, although the latter has had the benefit of a couple of runs; CB was not as effective here the following month, however, when fading in the final furlong behind Raising Sand (-9) on sf; the pair meet on level weight today on their seasonal returns; just a question whether it was the ground that proved too much for CB, although he had won a small-field hcap on sf over 8f here on his return the previous year; also interesting that he has yet to win a hcap!
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: 217 days break;
Verdict: (40) consistent in forecast and while not in the highest ability group does come from one of the higher value races lto, plus enjoys ratings support; won on seasonal return in 2017, but hasn’t won since, although that’s only eight races; might be drawn on the ‘wrong’ quadrant out of stall 10 as recent winners have been drawn higher; not without chances of breaking his hcap duck though and a contender perhaps.

There are no other consistent horses from anywhere in the forecast that are in either the five highest on ability or coming from the five most valuable races lto. Thus from a VDW viewpoint it’s time to stop and say there’s nothing for us here, as there are question marks against the chances of both Presidential and Cape Byron.

Looking at others who appear worth consideration outside VDW restrictions, both Kynren and Ripp Orf should be considered – forget Ripp Orf’s dismal effort at Newbury lto, as that was over 8f round a bend and he has shown he needs a straight track.. While he’s running off a 12lbs higher mark than last year, he’s now only off 2lbs higher than when beating Cape Byron here in September. Kynren, meanwhile, hasn’t run since chasing home Auxerre in the Lincoln and has won on sf in the past However, he hasn’t run over less than 8f since his debut as a 3yo in 2017, and one wonders if the Hunt Cup won’t be more in his sights.

So, throwing out a shortlist of Ripp Orf, Kynren, Cape Byron and Presidential, my personal choice would perhaps be Presidential.

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