Saturday 18th May

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 18th May

Postby Devasteve » Sat May 18, 2019 11:26 am

Again close but no cigar. However, it is a long time since I’ve made individual picks at York and had them make the frame on successive days at such good prices, 8/1, 14/1 and 6/1. Watch it all go pear-shaped today. I had intended to look at the London Gold Cup at Newbury even though it is a 3yo race, but in the end I ran out of time and settled for races that are more like my meat and drink. Let’s hope we don’t go hungry!

Thirsk 16.30 Cl 2 Hcap 129 (103) 7f gd/fm – 10 Run

Lake Volta 4-9-2 (98) Dr 9
7/2* Cons 15* AB 120* Lto 650* SF 103* Rat 115*
11 May Cl 2 Hcap (650) 7f gd/sf Ascot 16/1 8-12 4.25l 10/26 off 98 – 95
made most, headed entering final furlong, chased leaders weakened well inside final furlong
30 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (70) 7f gd Yarm 4/6 F 9-7 1.75l 1/4 off 95 – 103
led, ridden and pressed over 1f out, held on well towards finish
20 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (120) 7f gd Muss 13/2 9-11 7.75l 4/10 off 97 – 89
rear of mid-division, ridden over 2f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 4th close home, never on terms
Twice a winner as a 2yo, won in listed company at Epsom last June, although the Jersey and Criterion stks subsequently proved to be above his level; returned to form later in the season with placed efforts at Goodwood and Chester among other credible efforts; looked a mite short of fitness on his return at Musselburgh when 4th to Three Saints Bay (-6) , but made no mistake when dropped in class at Yarmouth making all in a small field to land the odds; unlikely he was going to lead all the way in last week’s Victoria Cup, and so it proved, but ran with credit weakening only in the final furlong in recording his best speed figures of the season; drops in class again today, but only carrying 4lbs more physical weight and while is OR is 3lbs above that for his Yarmouth success; consistent in the forecast and among the highest on ability, he comes from the highest value race lto and enjoys solid rating support, all in all making him a solid contender.

Byrons Choice 4-8-11 (93) Dr 1
5/1* Cons 3* AB 73 Lto 100 SF 87 Rat 111
13 Jul Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (100) 7f gd/fm York 100/30 F 9-9 1.5l 1/9 off 86 – 94*
always prominent, led over 1f out, driven out
Winner of a 6f novice as a 2yo, his early career seemed suited to softer ground; however, was gelded between seasons and after an early sighter in May went on to record a hat-trick in improving class between June and mid-July on gd and gd/fm; not seen thereafter, however, which suggests that something went amiss, so a little wary on his return going up in class yet again off a 7lbs higher mark, though substantially less physical weight than when last seen at York; consistent in the forecast, but the figures provide no more support and perhaps one to watch today.

Admirality 5-8-8 (90) Dr 10
15/2* Cons 9* AB 40 Lto 140* SF 83 Rat 112*
02 Nov Hcap (140) 6f AW Dund 13/8 F 9-0 0.1l 2/11 off 86 – 92*
raced in 4th early, soon 2nd, travelling smoothly and on terms over2f out, soon gained narrow lead, strongly pressed from over 1f out, kept on well inside final furlong, headed near finish
19 Oct Hcap (140) 7f AW Dund 16/1 9-1 0.25l 2/11 off 82 – 90
chased leaders, pushed along in 3rd 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, strongly pressed inside final furlong, headed and no extra close home
Won a pair of Cl 5 hcaps over 6f on fast ground last summer and after a disaster on hv ground at Listowel, maintained his form to season’s end; steps up in class as well as back up in trip for season debut for new yard, so not totally ignored; consistent in the forecast and comes from a reasonable race lto, plus has some ratings support, but impossible to know stable intentions as yet and market may give a better clue.

Of others:
Three Saints Bay had the advantage of a previous run when getting the better of Lake Volta (+4) at Musselburgh; however, he swiftly folded when favourite for a more valuable race at Goodwood at the start of the month and may well be hard pressed to confirm form with LV on 7lbs worse terms today.
Danielsflyer was another to disappoint lto when 12/13 in a Doncaster hcap having only gone down by a shd over the same 6f on his debut for his new yard on opening day; hard to make a case.
Al Erayg put in a decent effort on his return over the extended 7f at Chester, but that was on sf and with most of his form on gd or softer, he may have to wait a while longer before opening his account for the Easterby stable.
Breanski is well supported in the market and runs off only a 1lb higher mark than when completing his hat-trick in a Cl 120 hcap at Doncaster last August; was a little less consistent thereafter, particularly on his final start at Doncaster when he was always towards the rear; could be fancied on mid-season form and the stable is in form, but there’s not much support from my angles.
Above The Rest was a 50/1 shot when finishing 24/26 in last week’s Victoria Cup, and while I know he’s down in class, his win in listed company at Wolverhampton at teh start of March doesn’t look strong enough to give him a chance here.

What initially looked a reasonable race to analyse, is complicated by the fact that Breanski, Byrons Choice and Admirality are all making their season return, and thus could possibility spring a surprise. Of those who have had an outing or so, however, Lake Volta looks the most likely and should reverse Musselburgh running with Three Saints Bay.

Newbury 17.25 Cl 2 Hcap 249 (105) 8f gd – 14 Run

Last year – 249 (102) gd – 7 ran
Pouvoir Magique 3/1 4-8-4 (88) Dr 3 by 1.4l from Ripp Orf 5/2 F 4-8-2 (86) Dr 4
Wahash 7/1 4-8-13 (97) was 6.5l 5th

Petrus 4-9-2 (100) Dr 14
11/2* Cons 11* AB 212* Lto 310* SF 106* Rat 118*
19 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (310) 8f gd/fm Bath 5/1 9-7 0.05l 1/12 off 97 – 106*
in touch in mid-division, headway on outside over 2f out, ran on inside final furlong, led last stride
30 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (280) 8f gd Donc 7/1 9-5 0.5l 1/16 off 91 – 102
held up in touch, pushed along 2f out, led just over 1f out, ridden and edged right inside final furlong, driven out
Won a mdn at Sandown as a 2yo, but failed to add to his tally as a 3yo, best efforts coming over 8f at Ascot in July off 93 and over 10f at Doncaster in September off 94; gelded between seasons and returned to take the Spring Mile on gd at Doncaster sporting first-time cheekpieces and carrying 9-5 off 91; raised 6lbs for that, took a marginally more valuable 310 hcap over 8f on gd/fm at Bath, carrying 9-7 off 97 and just getting up to beat the favourite Salute The Soldier (-2) and Wahash (-1) in a career best; has been raised a further 3lbs in OR but actually carries 5lbs less dropped in race value to 249, giving STS and W 3lbs and 4lbs, respectively. Consistent within the forecast, among the top on ability and coming from on the most valuable races lto, he also has ratings support and while it’s difficult to win three Cl 2 hcaps in a row, the cheekpieces continue to be fitted and he must be considered a contender.

Salute The Soldier 4 -8-13 (97) Dr 4
19 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (310) 8f gd/fm Bath 7/2 F 9-5 0.05l 2/12 off 95 – 104*
chased leaders, ridden and went 2nd over 1f out, driven to lead well inside final furlong, headed final stride
16 Mar Cl 3 Hcap (70) 8.5f AW Wolv Ev F 9-7 0.02l 2/10 off 94 – 100
raced keenly, tracked leaders, close 3rd after 2f, 2nd 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden and hung both ways inside final furlong, all out (subsequently demoted to 2nd)
Last win: 05 Nov Cl 4 3yo-Hcap (60) 8f AW Kemp 4/5 F 9-8 2.75l 1/6 off 85 – 97
took keen hold early, soon steadied into 4th, headway on outside over 2f out, led and edged right entering final furlong, ran on well
Placed in two runs as a 2yo, but after initial 3yo race was gelded; returned in the autumn to win first two starts at Chelmsford and Kempton; runner-up in a 120 Cl 2 hcap at Wolverhampton in December on final 3yo start and given a break; dropped in class for return at Wolverhampton in March, but while first past the post, was demoted and placed 2nd; was then upped to highest class to date on his return to turf at Bath last month and yet again started as favourite, but couldn’t quite hold off previous winner Petrus (+2) going down in the final strides in a career best; nevertheless, finished 1l clear of Wahash (-1), who has subsequently failed on sf ground at Haydock; runs off a 2lbs higher mark today, although carrying 6lbs less actual weight in a less valuable hcap and enjoys an extra lb from Petrus, more to the fore though may be the fitting of first-time cheekpieces, which if they can eke out some improvement may see him turn the tables on Petrus, and dropping in class after recording a career best, a contender.

Robin Of Navan 6-9-7 (105) Dr 9
10/1* Cons 18 AB 469* Lto 210* SF 103 Rat 117*
01 May List Stks (210) 8f gd/fm Ascot 25/1 9-0 3.25l 3/8 off 105 – 109
tracked leaders, not clear run 2f out, switched left towards stands side rail and headway over 1f out, chased front pair when switched right inside final furlong, soon ridden, kept on, no impression
Making a very belated hcap debut following one of his better efforts for some time in a listed stks at Ascot at the start of the month; both his wins came in France, the last a Gr 3 over 10f in 2017 carrying 9-1; hard to see him featuring here despite being the highest on ability, coming from one of the more valuable races lto and being in the forecast.

Thrave 4-8-7 (91) Dr 2
4/1* Cons 13# AB 52 Lto 160 SF 77 Rat 116*
18 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (160) 8f gd/fm Nwmk 11/2 9-0 1.5l 4/8 off 91 – 95*
tracked leaders on far rail, switched left over 2f out, went 2nd inside final 2f, every chance inside final furlong, no extra in 4th towards finish
Pair of good efforts as a 2yo, winning his second start at Newmarket in a 7f mdn on gd/sf; however, failed in the Lingfield Derby Stks and in another listed stks at Newmarket at season’s end; gelded over the winter and showed promise on his return and hcap debut when 4/8 to Beringer at Newmarket in a career best; up in class today, but has a corresponding drop in weight to be carried; towards the front of the forecast, although has little support from other sectors, and can be considered a potential contender.

Of others:
Breden put in a fine performance to finish 3rd in the Lincoln after being runner-up in the Wolverhampton trial, but has since disappointed in being one-paced from a furlong out when 5/8 to Beringer at Newmarket when a 9/1 shot dropped in class; hard to see him featuring today going back up in class.
Wahash, meanwhile, ran well behind to finish only 1l behind Petrus at Bath, but has since disappointed over 7f on sf at Haydock, fading from 2f out when jt. Fav in a 280 Class hcap over 7f on sf; it’s also worth noting that both his wins have come on the AW and he’s 0/19 on turf.

Looking at my shortlist, I’ll be surprised if Robin of Navan proves to be a potent force from the head of the handicap, but can make a case for the other three. Thrave certainly has potential for improvement now that he’s entered the handicapping ranks, but this looks a stiffer test than at Newmarket in terms of opposition. Petrus, meanwhile, has already won his first two starts this term and he’s up another 3lbs in OR today; that might just prove the key as Salute The Soldier has been knocking on the door for a while and having set a career best in higher class lto, he may well turn the tables on Petrus in cashing in today. So Salute The Soldier from Petrus and Thrave is how I see it.

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