Saturday 25th May

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 25th May

Postby Devasteve » Sat May 25, 2019 11:20 am

Sod’s Law struck again with one of Johnston’s actually lasting home for once and another of my picks running like a three-legged camel. Full of intention though I went to bed last night with four races initially laid out for analysis. When I got up this morning (early), however, my internet was off and it was 10 hours before it came back – it’s had two or three more brief outs since. So sorry, but only two races looked at – and not in full detail either – while I’ve had to pass on the Chester and Goodwood races. In all honesty, though, there were no obvious selections in either of those races!

York 14.00 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (100.5) 7f gd/fm – 8 Run

Last year – 156 (99.8) gd – 11 ran
Gilgamesh 5/1 F 4-9-2 (96) Dr 6 by 0.05 from So Beloved 12/1 8-10-0 (108) Dr 9
Salateen 13/2 6-9-10 (104) Dr 2 was 5.3l 6th
Normandy Barriere 20/1 6-8-13 (96) Dr 3 was 6.05l 7th

Dancing Star 6-9-11 (105) Dr 5
9/2* Cons 16/8*? AB 447* Lto 340* SF 87 Rat 110
11 May Gr 3 Stks (340) 7f sf Ling 10/1 9-7 18l L/8 off 105 – 59
anticipated start and hit front of gates not open properly, very slowly away, recovered to rear halfway, pushed along over 2f out, soon weakened and eased
12 Oct Gr 2 Stks (680) 7f gd/fm Nwmk 7/1 9-0 3.5l 5/8 off 105 – 102
led, ridden and headed over 1f out, faded inside final furlong
14 Sep Gr 3 Stks (340) 7f gd Donc 7/2 9-3 0.75l 1/9 off 103 – 107
held up mid-division, ridden and headway over 1f out, soon led, pressed inside final furlong, held on close home
First hcap start since winning the 2016 Stewards Cup carrying 8-12 off 102, but won a Gr 3 stks over 7f at Doncaster last September; couldn’t quite see out the Gr 2 stks at Newmarket on her final start the following month, while one can ignore her Lingfield return earlier in the month as any chance was gone at the start; enjoys a 5lbs swing in the weights for the 2.5l she was behind Cardsharp in a 6f listed stks at Salisbury last June and could well reverse that running over the extra furlong; consistent in the forecast if one ignores Lingfield mishap, top on ability, plus has been running in better class; interestingly though, no ratings support; nevertheless, a contender returned to handicap company.

Cardsharp 4-9-13 (107) Dr 6
9/2* Cons 23 AB 221* Lto 650* SF 98* Rat 114*
11 May Cl 2 Hcap (650/97.3) 7f gd/sf Ascot 33/1 9-8 12l 21/26 off 108 – 85
anticipated start and slowly away, never able to make significant progress
27 Apr List Stks (340) 7f gd/fm Leic 7/1 9-2 2.5l 3/6 off 109 – 108
with winner until over 4f out, remained handy, ridden over 2f out, edged left over 1f out, stayed on same pace final furlong
5th Last; 13 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (120/94.6) 7f AW Ling 5/2F 9-9 0.75l 1/7 off 107 – 115
mounted in chute, chased leader until led 5f out, headed 3f out, shaken up entering final 2f, switched right and closed final furlong, led and reminders 100yds out, stayed on well.
Group winner over 6f as a 2yo, but showed he wasn’t top class when down the field in the 2000 Guineas; won a listed race over 6f at Salisbury in June, but best effort came when 4/18 to Burnt Sugar (-4) in the Bunbury off 111; gelded between seasons and looked as if his career was starting to rebound when carrying 9-9 to victory over 7f at Lingfield in March off 107, but signs of temperament at the start and trouble in running have subsequently dashed those hopes; inconsistent at present, although third highest on ability and dropping in class, plus has ratings support; back to last winning mark, although against higher class and no recent signs of form suggest he’s not a strong contender today.

Salateen 7-9-8 (102) Dr 7
5/1* Cons 19# AB 203* Lto 930* SF 93 Rat 114*
Won a 120/91.2 hcap over 7f at Doncaster in early May last year carrying 10-0, but most of his subsequent efforts have been in stks races with only mixed success; of recent form, was never involved when 6l 5/7 to Cardsharp (+4) at Lingfield in March; subsequently finished 4/11 in an inflated Cl 2 Stks over 8f at Lingfield on Good Friday, leading at this distance but fading in the final furlong; hardly consistent, but among the highest on ability, although value of latest race may well be inflated; mixed support from the ratings, could be fancied on last year’s Doncaster form but that was 20 starts ago and only marginally better off than last year when finishing in midfield; thus hardly a strong contender.

So Beloved 9-9-11 (105) Dr 3
4/1* Cons 11* AB 160 Lto 280* SF 97* Rat 111
27 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (280/97.1) 7f sf Hayd 16/1 9-10 3.25l 4/14 off 105 – 108
held up, driven to chase leaders over 1f out, ridden final furlong, no extra
13 Apr Cl 3 Stks (90) 7f gd/fm Thir 15/8 9-2 5l 2/3 off 107 – 96
close up, pushed along 2f out, ridden and unable to quicken over 1fout, kept on same pace
Not won since taking a listed stks at Haydock on his return back in 2016, but showed promise at Haydock last month back in hcap company; consistent in the forecast, but doesn’t appear to have a lot more going for him as a 9yo despite being better off than last year when runner-up carrying 10-0 off 108; did win the 2015 renewal off 96 carrying 9-; not the most likely winner though.

A race to leave alone I believe, as nothing stands out. My best suggestion would be Dancing Star back in hcap company.

York 15.45 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (93.5) 5f gd/fm – 19 Run
3yo = 8lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 311 (93.5) gd – 19 ran
Mr Lupton 11/1 5-9-10 (103) Dr 16 by 0.1l from El Astronaute 10/1 5-9-8 (101) Dr 17
Duke Of Firenze 7/1 9-10-0 (107) Dr 6 was 5.7l 11th

Copper Knight 5-9-10 (105) Dr 15
8/1* Cons 7* AB 201* Lto 190 SF 102 Rat 113
16 May Cl 2 Hcap (190/91.8) 5f gd/fm York 8/1 9-3 1l 1/21 off 100 – 109*
always prominent, led 2f out, ridden over 1f out, edged left and clear inside final furlong, ran on
09 May Cl 2 Hcap (210/93.3) 5f gd/sf Chest 11/8 F 1l 2/9 off 100 – 105
led, pushed along over 1f out, ridden and headed towards finish
Consistent sprinter who won this as a 3yo in 2017; still goes well here as shown lto when dropped slightly in class and scoring over C&D; back up in class today off a 5lbs higher mark and carrying 7lbs more physical weight; consistent in the forecast and among the second highest on ability; however, lacks support in other departments and perhaps the weight rise in a higher class race may go against him; thus not the strongest contender.

El Astronaute 6-9-10 (105) Dr 8
6/1* Cons 14 AB 168* Lto 710* SF 107* Rat 115*
15 May Gr 2 Stks (710) 6f gd/gm York 20/1 4.25l 6/10 off 106 – 105
led, headed inside final furlong, no extra towards finish
04 May Gr 3 Stks (340) 5f gd/fm Nwmk 12/1 3.25l 6/11 off 106 – 102
keen led, ridden and headed entering final 2f, faded inside final furlong
02 Apr Cl 2 Stks (120) 5f gd/fm Muss 7/4 F 0.1l 2/8 off 106 – 105
went right start, raced on rail chasing leader, led inside final 2f,strongly pressed and hung right final 100 yards, headed post
Runner-up in last year’s renewal carrying 2lbs lower off a 4lbs lower mark; however, won a 440/96.2 hcap over the extended 5f here in August carrying 9-3 off 101 and went on to win a listed race at Maisons-Lafitte on his final race of the season in mid-October; only just denied in a stks at Musselburgh on his return, and has run with credit in group races the last twice – the latest in the Duke of York here suggesting that 5f suits better than 6f; handicapper has dropped him 1lb for his return to hcaps; not among the most consistent, but third highest on ability and drops from the classiest race lto, plus has solid rating support; a contender.

Duke Of Firenze 10-8-4 (85) Dr 19
12/1* Cons 8* AB 165* Lto 60 SF 108* Rat 115*
Veteran sprinter of some ability, but hadn’t won since scoring over C&D here in May 2017 carrying 9-7 off 103; however, proved there’s life in the old dog yet when getting up late on to take a modest Cl 4 at Thirsk last Saturday; runs off a 3lbs higher mark today. but still off a 12lbs lower mark than when midfield in last year’s renewal; has not been gifted the best of the draw in the outside stall 19, even though those in double digits dominated last year’s renewal; consistent in the forecast and fourth on ability, plus has ratings support; however, one suspects that refers to earlier years and I can’t really see the 10yo at the front of the queue.

Leodis Dream 3-8-11 (100) Dr 10
13/2* Cons 3* AB 104 Lto 210* SF 94 Rat 110
08 May Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (210/87.4) 5f gd/sf Chest 9/2 9-3 0.5l 1/10 off 94 - 101
raced wide, edged right throughout and not handle track, close up, headway to lead approaching final furlong, pushed out
Runner-up on his debut at Catterick last October, he has won his next five, including a hat-trick of 3yo-hcaps this season each rising in class; the latest was particularly creditable, as he didn’t appear to appreciate Chester’s tight track; consistent in the forecast , but has a 6lbs rise in the weights to overcome today when he faces older horses for the first time; I’m always wary whether these young horses have the ability, and am thus loath to ignore his chances completely.

Eeh Bah Gum 4-8-7 (88) Dr 13
17/2* Cons 21 AB 124 Lto 190 SF 88 Rat 93
16 May Cl 2 Hcap (190/91.8) 5f gd/fm York 14/1 8-5 1.75l 4/21 off 88 - 90
chased leaders, driven over 1f out, effort over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong
Won 4 hcaps in a row of rising class early last season and held his form to win a valuable apprentice hcap over C&D here in August; looked to need the race on his return at Musselburgh in April. weakening from a furlong out, but much better effort when a close 4th to stable companion Copper Knight (+12) over C&D here 9 days ago; meets him on 5lbs better terms today, but rises in class yet again; could well improve again, but not a contender.

Another race it’s probably best to swerve, especially with the 3yo Leodis Dream looking to add to his string of wins. He may well be able to, but at present there’s no means of knowing. Moving down from the top though, I think this will prove too tough a task for Copper Knight to win the race again and am tempted to suggest that El Astronnaute might prove best. So my guesses would be El Astronnaute from Leodis Dream and Copper Knight

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