Monday 27th May

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Monday 27th May

Postby Devasteve » Mon May 27, 2019 12:53 pm

The only good thing about Saturday was being restricted to just the two races, which minimised the losses. A little upset in the sprint that I had the winner on my list but past due to draw, and age. The Zetland at Redcar today, a race that’s always attracted me down the years, though not always with major success I might add. Initially it looked fairly simple, but as usual, the more I studied the less sure I got. So let’s hope I get it right this year. A winner certainly wouldn’t go amiss, as it’s been a while! Sorry for the lateness, but traffic was horrendous!

Redcar 16.10 Cl 2 Hcap 290 (90.2) 10f gd/fm – 14 Run
3yo = 14lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 311 (95.8) gd/fm – 11 ran
Big Country 9/2 5-10-0 (102) Dr 9 by 0.5l from Nicholas T 25/1 6-8-11 (86) Dr 5

Society Red 5-8-13 (92) Dr 8
17/2* Cons 9* AB 124* Lto 190* SF 87 Rat 112*
17 May Cl 2 Hcap (190/93.2) 10.5 gd/fm York 12/1 8-11 0.25l 2/11 off 90 – 97*
mid-division, headway and hung left over 2f out, stayed on to dispute 2nd inside final furlong, closing on winner close home
18 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (90/90.1) 10f gd Rip 13/2 9-3 6.5l 5/10 off 90 – 87
in touch, pushed along and headway over 2f out, short of room approaching final furlong, faded inside final furlong
09 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (160/91.6) 10f gd/fm Pont 5/1 8-11 0.5l 2/8 off 90 – 97*
led, ridden and headed narrowly approaching final furlong, still every chance until close home
Won a 120/91.7 hcap over 10.5f on fast ground at York last June, recording a career best carrying 8-12 off 86, although didn’t match that form in four subsequent starts; finished midfield in Irish Lincoln on return, but put in a much better performance when dropped in class and back up to this trip at Pontefract in early April, matching his CB in only just going down to Aasheq (+4); dropped in class at Ripon nine days later carrying 9-3, but could only finish 5/10 to Epaulement (+4); given four weeks break and again matched career best when sent back up in class over the extended 10f at York and while closing at the finish couldn’t quite peg back the winner who was giving him 9lbs; has been raised 2lbs for that, but is in form and distance and going suit; consistent in the forecast and second highest on ability, drops in class from lto in regard to opposition if not race value, and has some rating support; physical weight no problem, but maybe a question off this mark.

Lunar Jet 5-9-2 (95) Dr 11
15/2* Cons 7* AB 78 Lto 90 SF 98* Rat 111
7 May Cl 3 Hcap (90/86.3) 10f gd/fm Nwmk 9/2 Co F 9-9 2l 1/9 off 91 – 99*
in touch, headway over 2f out, ridden to lead approaching final furlong, pushed out
27 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (80/88.9) 10f gd Donc 5/1 9-4 8.75l 5/14 off 91 – 86
towards rear, headway over 2f out, ridden and one pace final furlong
13 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (80/83.2) 10f gd/sf Newb 4/1 9-0 5l 1/18 off 83 – 98
held up in mid-division, smooth headway tracking leaders over 2f out, led approaching final furlong, soon clear, easily
Winter break over the hurdles seems to have done him good, for he’s won two of his three starts since returning in mid-April when he had Sands Chorus (+10) 6.25l back in 3rd; faced tougher opposition a fortnight later at Doncaster off an 8lbs higher mark and not surprisingly found the task beyond him, being one paced in the final furlong; ten days later, however, facing slightly lesser opposition in a more valuable race at Newmarket, he again proved too good for the opposition in a career best; runs off a 4lbs higher mark today, but carries 7lbs less actual weight as he rises in class; consistent in the forecast, but while he has some rating support he is not supported in other areas; thus looks to be up against it today needing improvement off a higher mark and at a level at which he has no form.

Epaulement 4-9-5 (98) Dr 14
4/1* cons 5* AB 72 Lto 210 SF 90 Rat 113*
10 May Cl 2 Hcap (210/96.4) 10.5f sf Chest 11/2 9-3 0.5l 2/10 off 97 – 104*
led, ridden and strongly pressed throughout final furlong, battled on gamely until headed and no extra close home
18 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (90/90.1) 10f gd Rip 15/8 F 9-7 0/5l 1/10 off 94 – 104*
made all, ridden over 1f out, ran on
Showed improvement as a 3yo winning at Haydock and over C&D here in September; showed improvement again to record a career best in winning on his return at Ripon in April with Society Red (-3) 6.5l back in midfield; raised 3lbs for that, he matched his Ripon level in just failing to hold Aquarium (+4) on gd/sf at Chester when upped in class lto; has been raised a further 1lb today, but should have no problem with the physical weight, plus the class of opposition doesn’t look as strong as at Chester; consistent in the forecast, but only minimal support in other areas; nevertheless, improving sort for whom the required improvement doesn’t look beyond his capabilities and a definite contender.

Al Muffrih 4-8-12 (91) Dr 4
15/8* cons 10# AB 67 Lto 310* SF 90 Rat 111
04 May Cl 2 Hcap (310/97.0) 9f gd/fm Nwmk 9/4 F 8-5 1.75l 6/10 off 91 – 95*
keen, led, ridden and headed over 2f out, still every chance over 1f out, faded inside final furlong
Finished 3/7 on debut in an 8f novice at Newmarket as a 2yo in the October; won a 10f novice at Newbury on his 3yo return last May; faded to finish 4/14 in a similar event the following month and that was it for the season; gelded in between seasons and made favourite for his return (and hcap debut) in the former Sussex Stks at Newmarket at the start of the month; however, was too anxious to strut his stuff and faded in the final furlong to finish a close 5th with others in today’s field further back; hood fitted for the first time today in the hopes of settling him on what will be only his fifth start; only fourth on consistency, but forecast favourite, and drops in class from lto, although has no rating support; nevertheless, proven over distance on fast ground and if the hood does its job, has to enter the equation.

Of others, highest on ability, First Sitting, won a listed race at Goodwood last May, but hasn’t run in a hcap since finishing down the field in the 2016 Cambridgeshire off 106; started off that mark when 9/10 behind Al Muffrih at Newmarket, and while he runs off 3lbs less today, it’s hard to see him reversing the form.
Nicholas T was a surprise runner-up in last year’s renewal carrying 8-11 off 86, but his last win dates back to June 2017 at Ayr; carries 8-5 off 84 this year, but while one can ignore his effort in the Victoria Cup, for which he never had a chance, previously he had finished 1.5l 3/16 in the 250/89.7 Thirsk Hunt Cup, just 0.75l behind Commander Han (+7) in 2nd; the latter also failed to boost the form at York lto. While I can’t fancy either today, stranger things have happened.

Looking at my shortlist, I think we can strike out Lunar Jet as having too much improvement to find moving up in class. In Epaulment and Al Muffrih, however, we have a fair of improvers who like to try and dominate their fields. Of the pair, I think Al Muffrih has the greater potential. A pair of dedicated front-runners like that, however, can sometimes wear each other out and set it up for a closing runner, and Society Red showed last time at York that he can run like that. So while I think that Al Muffrih is maybe more likely to win than Epaulment, it would come as no surprise if Society Red managed to come with a late run to head the pacemakers and snatch the spoils. So Al Muffrih the most likely winner, from Society Red and Epaulment.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Monday 27th May

Postby martinkil » Mon May 27, 2019 8:36 pm

A winner is a winner a and even the shorties add up over time.

The Zetland God Cup is an old race from the 1980's, but one from Redcar that didn't survive was the Daily Mirror sponsored "Andy Capp Handicap" which was won back in the day by the likes of Gunner B (en route to taking the Eclipes a couple of years later). I could never back the winner of it, but it was worth 10K back in the mid 1970's so always attracted the top class middle distance (1m2f) Northern handicappers and well as the southern raiders.

Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Re: Monday 27th May

Postby Devasteve » Fri May 31, 2019 11:32 am

Thanks Martin,,

My mind was getting muddled, one of the symptoms of old age!!


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