Friday 31st May

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Friday 31st May

Postby Devasteve » Fri May 31, 2019 11:43 am

Monday saw a winner at last, but at such short odds that I would have left the race alone. There’s been nothing of interest since until, which fortunately coincides with a week’s holiday, though less fortunately offers nothing of strong interest in the way of selections. Let’s hope things turn out better tomorrow, though I doubt they will with it being Saturday.

Epsom 14.35 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (91.6) 8.5f gd – 15 Run (14 at best)

Last year – 311 (90.0) sf – 9 ran
Medburn Dream 5/1 5-8-13 (89) Dr 7 my 1.25l from Mythical Madness 11/2 7-9-2 (92) Dr 2
Masham Star 9/2 4-8-10 (86) Dr 6 was 5.75l 4th

Gossiping 7-8-7 (87) Dr 9
9/1* Cons 12* AB 93 Lto 80 SF 87 Rat 113*
Won last two starts, but two years since previous win, in this class off 88; not a contender raised 4lbs by handicapper and up two classes.

History Writer 4-8-11 (91) Dr 8
7/1* Cons 14# AB 93 Lto 90 SF 93 Rat 114*
23 May Cl 3 Hcap (90/88.6) 8f gd/fm Sand 9/4 F 9-4 0.5l 3/8 off 91 – 97*
slowly into stride, held up last pair, headway on outside chasing leaders 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong, not pace of winner
13 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (310/95.8) 8f gd/sf Newb 14/1 8-10 8.75l 7/26 off 91 – 82
raced keenly, held up towards rear, headway far side of group over1f out, kept on same pace inside in 7th final furlong
Won a 90/87.0 hcap over 8f on gd at Sandown on 1st August, his only success in 11 starts to date; respectable return in the Newbury Spring Cup and built on that to record a career best when dropped in class at Sandown last week, finishing 3/8 to Lush Life (0); favourite for that, but up in class today off the same mark and hard to see him adding to his tally.

Greenside 8-9-0 (94) Dr 13
5/1* Cons 9* AB 85 Lto 70 SF 93 Rat 113*
06 May Cl 3 Hcap (70/87.0) 8f gd Wind 11/8 F 9-4 1.75l 1/8 off 90 – 99
held up in 6th, pushed along over 3f out, headway on outside chasing leaders over 2f out, ridden and stayed on to lead final 150yards, soon clear
13 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (310/95.8) 8f gd/sf Newb 8/1 8-9 4.25l 4/26 off 90 – 91
held up in mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 2f out, not clear run approaching final furlong, stayed on inside final furlong to take 4th near finish
Won a 187/91.2 off this mark as a 3yo at Sandown in June 2017 carrying 9-11, but didn’t appear until September last year and only had the three starts; third favourite for the Spring Cup at Newbury on his return and may have been a little unfortunate to only finish 4th, being denied a clear run until the final furlong and then running on; dropped in class at Windsor at the start of the month, had little trouble in accounting for Masham Star (+3) to win going away; raised 4lbs for that and back up in class, but neither mark nor physical weight appear beyond his capabilities; consistent in the forecast, although only slight support from other markers; nevertheless, looks a strong contender.

Niklaus 4-8-13 (93) Dr 3
8/1* Cons 14# AB 58 Lto 80 SF 84 Rat 111
10 Sep Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (80/84.9) 8f gd/fm Yarm 5/1 9-6 0.5l 1/7 off 89 – 96*
in touch, ridden and headway entering final furlong, quickened to lead inside final furlong, pushed out
Won three times last season, including on his final start at Yarmouth in September when he recorded a career best; starts this season off a 4lbs higher mark, but back up in class today for his season return and perhaps will need the race; not a strong contender.

Masham Star 5-8-13 (93) Dr 14
9/1* Cons 15# AB 183* Lto 280* SF 108* Rat 114*
25 May Cl 2 Hcap (280/94.2) 7.5f gd Chest 12/1 8-10 0.5l 2/10 off 93 – 99
chased leader, led well over 1f out, soon ridden, headed well inside final furlong, ran on
18 May Cl 2 Hcap (250/95.4) 8f gd Newb 20/1 8-9 0.75l 3/14 off 93 – 98
tracked leaders, driven to challenge inside final 2f, ridden over 1f out, stayed on and every chance final furlong, held near finish
Not the most prolific of winners but after a slow start to the season appeared to be approaching his best when runner-up to Greenside in early May; well backed at Chelmsford three days later and finished L/6 – had won on the course in the past; bounced back as a 20/1 shot when a close 3rd to Breden (+5) at Newbury nine days later; another promising effort last weekend at Chester when not quite holding on from Kaeso (-3); getting back to his last hcap winning mark of 92 at Redcar last August, although that was a Cl 3; consistent in the forecast if one ignores the Chelmsford debacle, among the top five on ability, plus has rating support; would be no surprise to see him go close again.

Of others, Seniority won the Golden Mile at Goodwood off 98, plus won his first two starts on return last season; not seen since being a rather disappointing favourite at Meydan at the end of January, however, and off 101 may need his return.
Hors De Combat, meanwhile, made a creditable return behind Breden at Newbury mid-month, but is not the most prolific of winners and hasn’t won a UK hcap since his 3yo days, so I think we can pass.
Firmament put in a decent effort when a 20/1 shot at York in mid-month, but as he hasn’t won since 2016 he’s another I’m prepared to pass on

Probably a race to pass on as well, as nothing really stands out above the rest. Of the three most probable to me, I have to take Greenside as the most likely from Masham Star and History Writer.

Epsom 15.45 Cl 2 Hcap 374 (92.8) 10f gd – 11 Run

Last year – 374 (92.3) sf – 11 Run
Ajman King 5/4 F 4-9-6 (98) Dr 9 by 2.75l from Brorocco 10/1 5-9-1 (93) Dr 8

Elector 4-8-12 (95) Dr 3
10/3* Cons 7* AB 188* Lto 310* SF 98* Rat 117*
04 May Cl 2 Hcap (310/97.0) 9f gd/fm Nwmk 9/1 8-7 0.25l 1/10 off 93 – 101
tracked leader, every chance over 1f out, led inside final furlong, pushed out
Ascot winner on only start at 2yo, but 3yo season rather disrupted by wind operation last July; came out of that, however, to run 3rd on final two starts at Kempton, including behind the forthcoming Lincoln winner Auxerre in October; returned in good form to take the former Suffolk Stks at Newmarket at the start of the month, just getting the better of Jazeel (-3), though not fully extended perhaps; raised just 2lbs for that and likely a lot more to come; while this is a more valuable race, it perhaps lacks the level of competition of the Newmarket contest; consistent in forecast, fourth on ability and solid rating support; a contender.

Jazeel 4-8-8 (91) Dr 8
5/1* Cons 7* AB 134 Lto 310* SF 103* Rat 117*
04 May Cl 2 Hcap (310/97.0) 9f gd/fm Nwmk 12/1 8-4 0.25l 2/10 off 90 – 97*
held up in rear, pushed along and headway over 1f out, ran on final furlong, not reach winner
28 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (310/87.2) 9f gd/fm Nwmk 14/1 8-10 0.25l 1/19 off 84 – 95
held up towards rear far side, pushed along and headway over 1f out, ridden and ran on to lead towards finish
Saved the best for last when with Mick Channon, winning the Silver Cambridgeshire last September off 84; gelded last November and moved to the O’Keefe yard in April; made a fine return at the start of the month with another career best when not quite getting to Elector (+3) in the former Sussex Stks at Newmarket; gets an extra lb to aid in the task today; consistent in forecast and enjoys solid rating support; a contender.

Mountain Angel 5-9-4 (101) Dr 6
9/2* Cons 11# AB 139* Lto 310* SF 97* Rat 116*
24 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (310/97.5) 10f gd Epsom 7/2 8-12 1.5l 1/11 off 96 – 106*
close up, pushed along and headway 2f out, led inside final furlong, ridden out
Consistent enough last season although only winning on his return at Ascot last May; won on his return this season too, being successful over C&D here in April; has been raised 5lbs for that, which sends his mark into the triple digits, plus he’ll carry 6lbs more actual weight; consistent in the forecast and among the five highest on ability, he enjoys solid ratings support; one does believe that off this mark though he’s not the strongest contender.

Setting Sail 4-8-12 (95) Dr 4
7/2* Cons 6* AB 72 Lto 160 SF 65 Rat 116*
11 May Cl 3 Hcap (160/90.7) 12f gd/sf Ascot 6/4 F 9-11 4.75l 4/7 off 96 – 98
raced keenly tracking leader, led halfway, ridden and headed over1f out, lost 2nd final 125 yards, weakened soon after
22 Apr Cl 5 Nov (40) 12f AW Wolv 10/11 9-9 6l 1/10 – 100*
always going well, led on bit just over 2f out, pushed clear over 1f out, easily
Showed promise as 2yo, winning over 10f at Goodwood on second start; then off for 19 months before making an impressive return to win over 12f at Wolverhampton in April – 2nd and 3rd have both won since; awarded a tough mark for his handicap debut at Ascot, but ran well enough till weakening in the final furlong; up in class today, but has been dropped 1lb and will consider 8-12 a featherweight compared to what he’s been carrying; consistent in the forecast, but that’s all and he’s still something of a talking horse on only his fifth start.

Of others, Comin’ Through still has to acclimatize to UK racing, while I’m never quite sure what to make of the aptly named What About Carlo; Borodin, meanwhile, is stepping up to a new trip, so has things to prove, but you can never ignore Fahey horses.

Going through my shortlist, I do feel that Setting Sail has questions to answer, while Mountain Angel may find it tough of its new mark. Jazeel can be expected to improve, but so too can Elector. So I’d be inclined to support Elector to confirm Newmarket running with Jazeel, with perhaps Mountain Angel getting in the act. Again though, a race best left out as nothing really sticks out.

Epsom 17.50 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (90.7) 7f gd – 12 Run

Last year – 311 (88.9) sf – 14 ran
Shared Equity 9/1 7-9-7 (93) Dr 8 by 0.25l from Swift Approval 25/1 6-9-2 (88) Dr 9
Ripp Orf 9/2 Jt F 4-9-3 (89) Dr 5 was 6.37l 9th

War Glory 6-9-10 (93) Dr 8
5/1* Cons 9* AB 152* Lto 90 SF 85 Rat 103*
23 May Cl 3 Hcap (90/88.6) 8f gd/fm Sand 11/2 9-6 0.25l 2/9 off 93 – 99
tracked leaders in 5th, not clear run inside final 2f until switched leftover 1f out, led inside final furlong, stayed on well until headed and outpaced towards finish
11 May Cl 3 Hcap (70/82.0) 7.5f sf Ling 7/2 9-7 0.5l 1/7 off 90 – 99
in touch, not clear run from 2f out, switched left looking for a gap, effort between horses approaching final furlong, led inside final furlong, ran on
Far better record on the AW, but finally got off the mark on turf at Lingfield earlier in the month, and followed up with a solid effort to finish runner-up to Lush Life (-2) off 3lbs higher; runs off the same mark today, although carries 4lbs actual weight; consistent in forecast, second in ability (AW!), but only partial support elsewhere; up in class, but has won with this weight on the AW; a contender perhaps.

Love Dreams 5-9-12 (95) Dr 10
4/1* Cons 10* AB 109* Lto 160* SF 93* Rat 103*
23 May Cl 2 Hcap (160/93.3) 7f gd Good 7/4 F 8-11 3.75l 4/9 off 95 – 93
led, hung right under pressure over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, no extra
16 May Cl 2 Hcap (310/94.1) 7f gd/fm York 8/1 9-4 2.25l 4/14 off 95 – 100
led, driven over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra close home
04 May Cl 2 Hcap (310/89.9) 7f gd Good 4/1 9-4 1l 2/11 off 93 – 101
led, clear over 1f out, ridden headed and not pace of winner final 125 yards
Hasn’t won since May last year, but that was off 100 and he’s now 5lbs lower; has been a model of consistency of late, but each time he just fails to get home, so maybe the handicapper has to relent a little more; consistent in the forecast, among the top five on ability, and has solid ratings support, and yet I’m starting to doubt him getting home off this mark; so not the strongest contender.

Ripp Orf 5-9-11 (94) Dr 6
9/2* Cons 20 AB 330* Lto 650* SF 93* Rat 104*
11 May Cl 2 Hcap (650/97.3) 7f gd/sf Ascot 10/1 8-9 2.75l 5/26 off 95 – 97
held up towards rear, headway when not clear run and switched right 2f out, ran on inside final furlong, not reach leaders
Had a career in 2018, although not in this race where he was hampered and stumbled over 4f out and never got into the race; runs off a 5lbs higher mark this time round and carries 8lbs more actual weight, which his performances warrant; however, he appears to be better over a straight 7f/8f and one wonders how much last year’s stumble was actually due to the course; has performed well this time round in the Lincoln (straight 8f) and the Victoria Cup (straight 7f) in which he was trying to repeat off a 12lbs higher mark; not consistent at present, but highest on ability and dropping from highest class race lto, plus has ratings support; just the worry about the course and thus not my strongest contender.

Nobleman’s Nest 4-9-11 (94) Dr 7
5/1* Cons 11* AB 78 Lto 80 SF 78 Rat 100
20 Sep Cl 3 Hcap (80/86.6) 7f gd/fm Yarm 5/2 F 9-4 1l 1/5 off 90 – 97
close up in rear, switched left over 2f out, headway to lead and edged left over 1f out, ridden out
Twice a winner as a juvenile, but 3yo career was going nowhere until he had wind surgery and was gelded in June; returned to win a a hcap at Yarmouth with promise of things to come; returns to the fray today off a 4lbs higher mark and carrying the hefty burden of 9-11, but not necessarily written off, despite only having consistency in the forecast in support.

Of others, I don’t see Hateya having the class to perform at this level, while I suspect that Blackheath is being upped in class and distance in preparation for being dropped back down in class over 6f to collect next time. Money too for Corazen Espinado, but while the course suits he’s have to raise his game to win at this level

Again a race where there are a load of questions to answer, not least can Ripp Orf handle the Epsom track, can Love Dreams manage to stay out in front for the whole trip without weakening, and will Nobleman’s Nest be fit to make his return? A race to definitely leave alone methinks, although War Glory and perhaps Nobleman’s Nest would be my best two choices for support.

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