Wednesday 5th June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Wednesday 5th June

Postby Devasteve » Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:20 am

My jousts with night racing having fared that well either, so I thought things might improve with a Cl 2 during the afternoon. My hopes were dashed though, as I can find absolutely nothing that looks remotely lime a selection, and it’s so bad this time round that I’m not even going to hazard a guess what might win. For smarter brains than mine, I’ve included my comments on the four I see as being most likely – though they could well all end up down the field!

Nottingham 13.30 Cl2 Hcap 162 (96.4) 8.5f gd – 8 Run

Last year – 142 (99.8) – 6 ran
Repercussion 7/4F 6-9-3 (97) Dr 1 by 2l from Zwayyan 5/2 6-9-1 (95) Dr 7
Circus Couture 20/1 7-9-12 (106) Dr 3 was 17.5l 5th
Bless Him 8/1 5-9-6 (100) Dr 4 was 18l last of 6

Bless Him 5-9-2 (96) Dr 8
10/3* Cons 17# AB 400* Lto 311* SF 96* Rat 111*
16 May Cl 2 Hcap (311/94.9) 8f gd/fm York 12/1 9-4 4.25l 7/14 off 95 – 95
slowly away, behind, not clear run over 2f out, soon switched right, edged left and kept on inside final furlong, never on terms
Unraced at 2yo, but won two of his six starts at 3yo including the 747/94.5 Britannia at Royal Ascot carrying 8-9 off 90; raised to a mark of 100 he struggled in his four starts last year, his best effort coming in a 153/93.6 at York where he was 6l 3/8 carrying 9-12 off 98 on his penultimate start; gelded in the off-season but not really fancied in the betting on his return at York last month, and so it proved with him finishing midfield off 95 carrying 9-4; this a less valuable race today, though somewhat tougher in class of opposition, but while he carries 2lbs less physical weight he runs off a 1lb higher mark; runs off 4lbs lower than when finishing a well beaten last of six in last year’s renewal; a lot of improvement required if he’s to be a major contender today.

Masham Star 5-9-2 (96) Dr 5
7/2* Cons 9* AB 160* Lto 311* SF 99* Rat 111*
31 May Cl 2 Hcap (311/91.6) 8.5f gd Epsom 6/1 8-13 7.25l 4/14 off 93 – 90
chased leaders, ridden disputing 2nd over 1f out, no chance with easy winner, weakened final 125 yards
25 May Cl 2 Hcap (280/94.2) 7.5f gd Chest 12/1 8-10 0.5l 2/10 off 93 – 99
chased leader, led well over 1f out, soon ridden, headed well inside final furlong, ran on
18 May Cl 2 Hcap (249/95.4) 8f gd Newb 20/1 8-9 0.75l 3/14 off 93 – 98
tracked leaders, driven to challenge inside final 2f, ridden over 1f out, stayed on and every chance final furlong, held near finish
Multiple winner who stands his racing well and as usual has been consistent in higher class of late; however, it’s worth noting that discounting his Capistrano win in November, all of his turf successes have come in lower class and while he did win off 100 on the AW back in 2017, his highest turf success was off 92 in a Cl 3 at Redcar last summer; today he pays for recent consistency with a 3lbs raise in his mark, which with perhaps a lesser effort at Epsom last week, suggests he’s not the strongest contender for the win.

Bubble And Squeak 4-9-2 (96) Dr 7
9/2* Cons 14# AB 157* Lto 280* SF 81* Rat 108*
11 May Cl 2 Hcap (280/91.6) 8f gd/sf Ascot 14/1 8-10 0.05l 1/9 off 87 – 96*
held up in touch, headway tracking leaders halfway, went between horses inside final furlong, stayed on to lead post
30 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (124/77.8) 10f gd/fm Bri 7/1 9-7 0.5l 3/6 off 87 – 92
held up in touch in 5th, headway on outside 3f out, ridden and stayed on inside final furlong, almost snatched 2nd
Useful though not top class handicapper, ran better than expected to finish in the Newbury Spring Cup on her return; dropped in class but upped in trip and weight when showing improved form at Brighton at the end of April; returned to winning form despite the rise in class when returned to 8f at Ascot, staying on strongly to get up on the post; while this is a less valuable race, the class of opposition is higher than she’s previously faced, plus now has to run off a 9lbs higher mark than at Ascot; definitely in form, but would look to have too big a task in this field to be the prime contender.

Mutafani 4-9-2 (96) Dr 4
7/2* Cons 12* AB 65 Lto 311* SF 79 Rat 105*
16 May Cl 2 Hcap (311/94.9) 8f gd/fm York 5/1 9-0 10.5l 11/14 off 91 – 77
prominent, raced keenly, driven over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
Unraced at 2yo and just the four starts last season, impressing when winning novice events at Chelmsford and Thirsk in May/June; not seen thereafter, and while well fancied for his return at York last month, was obviously in need of the race; likely to do better today, but whether he’s up to winning this is a matter of conjecture.

Definitely a race to leave well alone, as none of my four most likely offer clear hopes, plus there are threats from O’Meara’s pair, Escobar who is still 3lbs above the mark for his last win in lower class at Haydock in June last year, and the more likely Baltic Baron who had winning form in France for Andre Farbre and is making his stable debut today. Given O’Meara record with such horses it would not surprise me were Baltic Baron to win today, especially with Escobar as back-up. However, with eight horses separated by just 2lbs, it’s too tough a nut for me to crack!

Got me so screwed up I couldn't even get the date right!!

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