Thursday 6th June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Thursday 6th June

Postby Devasteve » Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:27 am

The only thing I did right yesterday was to abstain, as once again I could never have picked the winner! I’ve got the opposite problem today with more contenders than I can shake a stick at. Still at least I have a chance of maybe picking the right one for once!

Ripon 15.50 Cl 3 Hcap 93 (87.1) 10f gd/sf – 11 Run

Mr Top Hat 4-9-4 (90) Dr 2
7/1* Cons 11* AB 108* Lto 118* SF 95* Rat 106* gd/sf 0/3/5
09 May Cl 3 Hcap (118/87.6) 10.5f sf Chest 16/1 9-3 1.75l 1/13 off 86 – 96*
held up, wide and headway over 3f out, ridden to lead approaching final furlong, ran on
19 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (311/91.8) 8f gd/fm Bath 12/1 8-12 2.75l 5/12 off 88 – 91
led until over 2f out, chased leader until over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong
Capable, though not the most productive handicapper (2/25), both wins coming on turf, the latest breaking a 19-race losing streak over the extended 10f on sf at Chester lto when he equalled his career best at Newmarket in November; has been raised 4lbs for that and carries 1lb more physical weight, both of which should be within his capability against similar competition to that at Chester, especially as this will only be his fourth start at around this trip; going would seem to suit as he’s 2/6/11 on ground softer than gd; certainly a contender under these conditions and has across the board support from the parameters.

Cockalorum 4-8-7 (79) Dr 11
11/2* Cons 9* AB 74 Lto 74 SF 79 Rat 60 gd/sf 0/0
20 Oct Mdn (70) 9f gd/yld Leop 10/1 9-2 0.25l 1/22 off 77 – 75
in touch, headway to lead under 2f out, soon ridden, strongly pressed final 150 yards, kept on best under pressure
Unraced at 2yo and just the four starts at 3yo culminating in a mdn win over 9f at Leopardstown in October; sold out of the Halford yard thereafter and makes his first start for Fell after a 229-day break; stable in good form (5/3/29), although this not one of his better courses (2/1/27); distance should suit, as should the ground and runs off a fair mark for his hcap debut; however, not a lot of support from parameters and coming back from a 7-month he may well need the run, so while not entirely dismissed, one of the less likely contenders.

Universal Gleam 4-9-3 (89) Dr 7
10/3* Cons 8* AB 54 Lto 55 SF 101* Rat 107* gd/sf 0/0
22 May Cl 4 Hcap (55/73.7) 8f gd/fm Ayr 11/10 F 9-12 1.5l 1/6 off 85 – 96*
chased leaders, driven to lead approaching final furlong, ran on
17 May Cl 4 Hcap (67/78.8) 8.5f gd/fm Ham 7/2 9-4 1.75l 1/6 off 80 – 91
made all, took keen hold, driven over 2f out, stayed on strongly
Unraced as 2yo, won a 9f novice at Ayr last June on second start at 3yo; failed to add to that in three subsequent starts and underwent a wind operation and was gelded before the end of the year; has returned with a bang this year winning a pair of handicaps at Hamilton and Ayr within a week last month; that has resulted in 5lbs and 4lbs rises in mark, and likely he’ll win off higher before the season’s out; however, faces much stronger opposition today and goes back up in trip, although indications are that he’ll stay; winning the third in a row is tough, especially when going up in class in hcaps, and while he carries 9lbs less physical weight he’ll still need to find a stone or more improvement to come out on top today; not impossible, but unlikely one thinks and not the strongest contender despite his consistency and ratings support.

Stealth Fighter 4-9-4 (90) Dr 9
3/1* Cons 15 AB 54 Lto 311* SF 78 Rat 104 gd/sf 0/0
15 May Cl 2 Hcap (311/97.4) 12f gd/fm York 10/1 8-9 9l 12/18 off 90 – 87
prominent, every chance over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
23 Apr Cl 4 Hcap (55/82.8) 10f gd/fm Yarm 5/1 9-1 6l 1/5 off 79 – 94*
tracked leader, led over 2f out, ran on
Won 7f novice on his debt at Beverley at start on September, but failed to add to that in a pair of AW starts in the closing months of the season; creditable return in a Cl 4 hcap over 7f at Leicester in early April and followed up by taking a similar hcap in some style against better opposition over 10f at Yarmouth later in the month; raised 11lbs for that facile win he was then upped to Cl 2 over 12f at York last month, but although he was prominent much of the way, the final furlong proved too much and he weakened to finish well down the field; the drop back in trip will likely help today, as will the drop in class and even carrying 3lbs more physical weight than at Yarmouth the challenge should prove within his capabilities, although as yet he’s never run on softer than gd; a definite contender.

Fayez 5-9-7 (93) Dr 10
6/1* Cons 13# AB 77 Lto 171* SF 85 Rat 105* gd/sf 0/1/3
19 May Cl 2 Hcap (171/90.5) 9f gd Rip 14/1 8-6 3l 1/10 off 87 – 96*
held up behind, headway to chase leaders over 2f out, stayed on to lead inside final furlong, soon clear, ran on
27 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (87/85.6) 8f gd Rip 16/1 9-5 5.5l 3/14 off 88 – 94
slowly away in rear, headway over 1f out, one pace final furlong
Handicapper with better record on AW (5/20) than turf (2/22) and success over 9f here last month was his first since winning a 6f novice here three years ago; did win an 89/81.7 over 8f in first-time cheekpieces at Chelmsford in September off 86, and a 55/78.6 over 9.5f at Wolverhampton in March off 85; it as the latter success that saw him contest the Spring Mile at Doncaster off 92 where he finished in midfield; that mark swiftly dropped to 88 when he ran over 6f in April and had gone down a further 1lb before last month’s success; has been raised 6lbs for that to a mark 3lbs above his career best and his last three success have been off 85, 86 and 87; moreover, while he has won over 10f on the AW, the trip looks a little beyond him on turf; on balance, not a contender.

Waarif 6-9-11 (97) Dr 1
15/2* Cons 15 AB 149* Lto 73 SF 98* Lto 108* gd/sf 0/1/1
27 May Cl 3 Hcap (73/89.4) 10f gd/fm Wind 5/1 9-4 0.5 1/5 off 92 – 100
held up, progress over 2f out, ridden to lead just over 1f out, driven out
First success at this relatively new distance lto against marginally tougher opposition, but carries a 5lbs penalty as a result; nevertheless, did raise his mark from 81 to 95 winning 4 of 6 starts between June and September last season under today’s rider, including carrying 10-1 off 92 when winning a 95/85.3 here; moreover, claimer back in the plate today even though he now only claims 3lbs; ground should prove no problem and looks the more likely of O’Meara’s pair, a contender.

Trying to weed out the least likely from a host of probables, I have to question the UK debutant Cockalorum coming off a 229-day break and while he might prove me wrong, I’ll pass. I think I’ll pass too on the O’Meara second string Fayez who might find 10f on turf a little beyond his capabilities. Universal Gleam has won two in a row since his ‘tween season surgery, but today marks a far tougher task and I feel that it might prove beyond him and so reluctantly I have to pass again. That leaves me with just three left, of which Stealth Fighter gives me the most problems as while he is an improving sort he has yet to prove he can win at this level and he’s still running off 11lbs higher than when winning at Yarmouth; not for me. Mr Top Hat and Waarif are both lto winners and also relatively unexposed over this trip, plus have the capability of extending the winning streak. Tough to choose, but perhaps Mr Top Hat from Waarif may be the way to go.

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