Wednesday 19th June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Wednesday 19th June

Postby Devasteve » Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:31 pm

The experiment is over, as while I did manage to get the first two home on Sunday, they were in the wrong order. So it’s back to further experiments with my old methodology and the Hunt Cup takes centre stage today. Wish us all luck!

Ascot 17.00 Cl 2 Hcap 1089 (102.6) 8f gd – 30 Run

Last year – Cl 2 Hcap 1089 (100.9) gd/fm – 30 ran
Settle For Bay 16/1 4-9-1 (99) Dr 22 by 2.25l from Afaak 10/1 4-9-5 (93) Dr 17
Circus Couture 100/1 6-9-8 (106) Dr 13 was 2.35l 3rd
What’s The Story 33/1 4-9-0 (98) Dr 19 was 2.6l 4th
Raising Sand 14/1 6-9-2 (100) Dr 9 was 3.7l 7th
Seniority 7/1 F 4-8-12 (96) Dr 30 was 3.95l 8th
Kynren 12/1 4-8-12 (96) Dr 11 was 10.85l 21st
Zhui Feng 20/15-9-10 (108) Dr 2 was 20.1l 23rd

New Graduate 4-9-5 (105) Dr 1 – 116.0
27 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (87/85.6) 8f gd Rip 5/4 F 9-7 5l 1/14 off 90 – 133.0
in touch, headway to track leaders 4f out, led entering final furlong, clear approaching final furlong, comfortable
Unraced at 2yo, but won his first two starts as 3yo over 8f at Thirsk in April and May last year before coming back from a 4-month break to finish 2nd in an 8f novice in the Haydock mud in October; made a mockery of his initial handicap mark on his return and had the race sewn up a furlong out when coming away for an impressive win on gd at Ripon; however, that was against 85.6 opposition and he faces 102.6 opposition today, although his mark has only been raised 15lbs and he carries 2lbs less physical weight;
Plus: going (W); distance (W); down 2lbs in wt;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class; up 15lbs in OR; draw;
Verdict: one of those ‘could be a group horse masquerading in a hcap’ type was most impressive on his return; however, that was a Cl 3 hcap at Ripon and he’s never run in Cl 2 or on a power course like Ascot, plus a 15lbs rise in the weights is a sizeable amount even if the handicapper erred first time round; doesn’t exactly have the best draw either as no horse has won from stall 1 or 2 in the past 22 renewals, and the pace again looks to be mid to high this year; while he could prove me wrong, he looks to be rather a skinny price to overcome those doubts.
Raising Sand 7-9-3 (103) Dr 32 - 121.5
11 May Cl 2 Hcap (654/97.3) 7f gd/sf Asc 16/1 9-3 1.6l 4/26 off 103 – 125.6
towards rear, headway near side rail over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, never nearer
06 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (1120/101.1) 7f sf Asc 5/1 8-11 2l 1/15 off 97 – 123.0
in touch, headway 2f out, quickened to lead just inside final furlong, wandered under pressure, ran on
Has shown a distinct liking for Ascot being twice a winner here over C&D, as well as over 7f in a valuable hcap here last autumn off 97; promising effort on return in the Victoria Cup when 4th to Cape Byron and Kyren (-5) off 103; runs off the same mark today carrying the same weight, although taking on 102.6 opposition rather than the 97.3 of the Victoria Cup; has won on gd, although appears to be a better horse on the sf side of gd; drawn high, which in recent years has been a plus.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W);
Minus: age (?);
Verdict: runs off a 3lbs higher mark and carries 1lb more than when 7th in last year’s renewal, although that was on fast ground and he’ll much prefer today’s conditions; granted he is a 7yo, but horses of that age have won in recent memory and he seems to have improved somewhat; doesn’t quite tick all the boxes, but close enough to warrant support as a likely contender.
Kynren 5-9-1 (101) Dr 3 (141.8) – 122.0
11 May Cl 2 Hcap (654/97.3) 7f gd/sf Asc 7/1 F 8-12 0.25l 2/26 off 98 – 123.5
held up in mid-division, headway near side of group 2f out, squeezed through over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 2nd post, not reach winner
20 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (1556/103.4) 8f sf Asc 6/1 8-13 2l 5/20 off 99 – 121.2
held up in mid-division, headway near side of group chasing leaders over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong until well inside final furlong, no extra towards finish
Lightly raced for a 5yo making only his 13th start today; has not won since taking the last 3 of 4 starts as a 3yo, the last being a 65/81.8 hcap over 8f at Redcar in October 2017; disappointed when down the field in last year’s renewal off a 5lbs lower mark, but has shown that the course holds no terrors with competitive efforts over 8f here in October and lto when just unable to peg back Cape Byron in the Victoria Cup; had finished a credible runner-up to handicap blot Auzerre when second favourite for the Lincoln on his return; looks to perhaps prefer ground on gd or softer, which could perhaps account for last year’s disappointment.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F);
Minus: up 3lbs; OR up 3lbs; low draw (?);
Verdict: looks likely to snaffle one of these big handicaps, but maybe not today as single digit draws have only produced a couple of winners in the past decade or more and the pace looks to be mid to high side.
Seniority 5-9-1 (101) Dr 27 (142.2) – 123.5
31 May Cl 2 Hcap (311/91.6) 8.5f gd/sf Eps 11/2 9-7 5l 2/14 off 101 – 124.2
raced keenly, tracked leaders on inside, ridden and went 2nd over 1f out, no chance with winner, just held on for 2nd
03 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (934/98.1) 8f gd/fm Good 9/2 Jt F 9-2 0.5l 1/15 off 98 – 128.0
held up in mid-division, smooth headway over 2f out, led inside final furlong, edged right ran on well
Runs off a 5lbs higher mark than when 8th in last year’s renewal, after which he improved to win the former Golden Mile at the Goodwood Festival; ended the season by running down the field in the Cambridgeshire and wasn’t overly impressive in a couple of Meydan starts in January; better effort on his return to UK turf at Epsom at the end of last month although looked hard-pressed to stay the 8.5f and not convinced he’s best suited by power courses and may prefer faster ground.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); down 6lbs wt;
Minus: going; course; trainer;
Verdict: worries about course and going, as only turf wins have come on fast ground, plus Haggas has a woeful record at the meeting; so not a major contender for me.
What’s The Story 5-9-0 (100) Dr 26 – 123.3
16 May Cl 2 Hcap (311/94.9) 8f gd/fm York 9/1 9-5 1.5l 1/14 off 96 – 131.0
held up in touch in mid-division, effort 3f out, led inside final furlong, ran on well
Runs off a 2lbs higher mark than when 4th in last year’s renewal, but looks to be an improved horse this time round as shown by his victory at York last month; raised 4lbs for that, but will in fact carry 5lbs less physical weight; however, is very much up in class of opposition from 94.9 to 102.6.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); down 5lbs wt.
Minus: up 4lbs OR;
Verdict: not without chances based on York running and a possible contender.
Petrus 4-9-0 (100) Dr 16 – 122.3
18 May Cl 2 Hcap (249/95.4) 8f gd Newb 9/1 9-2 1.4l 4/14 off 100 – 123.4
held up behind, headway over 1f out, ridden and stayed on to chase leaders inside final furlong, no impression
19 April Cl 2 Hcap (311/91.8) 8f gd/fm Bath 5/1 9-7 9.1l 1/12 off 97 – 133.0
in touch in mid-division, headway on outside over 2f out, ran on inside final furlong, led last stride
Winner over 7f at Sandown as a 2yo, he rather suffered the sophomore drop last season, although he was placed over C&D here towards the end of July; has certainly rebounded this season winning the Spring Mile at Doncaster on opening day and then following up at Bath in April and not disgraced behind Breden at Newbury lto.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: improved showing this term, but perhaps a breather needed before next success.
Stylehunter 4-8-13 (99) Dr 25 – 116.0
08 June Cl 2 Hcap (129/91.3) 10f gd/fm Nwmk 3/1F 9-7 5.5l 5/7 off 99 – 124.8
slowly into stride, held up towards rear, soon racing keenly, pushed along 3f out, some headway and edged right over 1f out, no impression
25 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (97/83.6) 9f gd Good 8/11 F 9-9 4l 1/6 off 92 – 135.0
slowly into stride, tracked leader after 1f, led over 1f out, ridden clear, readily
Showed promise with 2 wins from 5 starts as a 3yo, plus ran well in the Britannia here and also ran in the Cambridgeshire; gelded between seasons and likely needed the run at Newmarket on his return; drops back in trip and down 8lbs in weight today and likely to give an improved showing today.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); down 8lbs (wt)
Minus:
Verdict: trainer twice a winner of the race and knows what’s required, so no surprise should he go well, a contender.

The usual cavalry charge but I have cut the field somewhat by removing those with an OR of 106 or above and those carrying 9-6 or more, as they haven’t provided any winners in the past 22 years. It’s worth noting too that while 4/5yo predominate (mainly 4yo) there have been winners at 6yo & 7yo in the last 22 years, though none older. A top 4 finish lto for 15 of 22 winners, while the other 7 all came from Cl 2 hcaps and finished 9th or worse. I’ve also ignored all those coming from Group races as they just don’t win. The other factor that could lead me on a wild goose chase is the draw. Horses do win from single digit draws, Belgian Bill in 2013 and Portage in 2109, but it’s a rare occurrence and by the look of it this year, all the pace is drawn middle to high.

That’s a pity, Kynren and the well-backed favourite New Graduate both have this disadvantage and while I may be wrong, I’m leaving them alone. Another that I’m passing on too is Seniority who I believe would prefer faster ground, plus Haggas has a woeful record at the meeting. I also think that Petrus might have dome his winning for a while and thus I’m left with the trio of Raising Sand, What’s The Story and Stylehunter, although I admit the latter has the added attraction of being Gosden-trained, ran we3ll enough in last year’s Britannia and was also a runner in the Cambridgeshire. What order to put them in I don’t really know, but I’m tempted to go with all three in the hopes at least one makes the frame. So Raising Sand from Stylehunter and What’s The Story perhaps.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Wednesday 19th June

Postby martinkil » Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:53 pm

So Raising Sand from Stylehunter


The good news is they were placed and you had them in the right order


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