Saturday 22nd June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 22nd June

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:45 am

Yes, Martin, things went very well yesterday. However, I’m afraid this is only a token effort today as big field sprints are not really my forte and several years have passed since I was lucky enough to find the winner of the Wokingham. At least I managed a winner at Ascot this year. Had hoped to look at the racing at Ayr too, but sadly I just don’t have the energy and things will have to wait till next week.

Ascot 17.00 Cl 2 Hcap 1089 (101.9) 6f gd – 29 Run (28 at best)
3yo = 7lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 1089 (101.6) gd/fm – 28 ran
Bacchus 33/1 4-9-6 (105) Dr 16 by 0.25l from Dreamfield 2/1 F 4-9-4 (103) Dr 8
Marvellous 20/1 4-9-0 (99) Dr 5 was 0.8l 4th
Spring Loaded 33/1 6-9-2 (101) Dr 10 was 3.02l 9th
Intisaab 66/1 7-9-10 (109) Dr 6 was 7.12l 15th
Danzeno 16/1 7-9-3 (102) Dr 23 was 7.32l 17th

Bacchus 5-9-10 (108) Dr 21 (129.7)
20 Oct Gr 1 Stks (3587) 6f sf Ascot 9-2 33/1 29l L/14 off 110
held up towards rear of mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, soon beaten and behind, never a factor
23 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (1089/101.6) 6f gd/fm Ascot 33/1 9-6 0.25l 1/28 off 105 – 129.7
raced centre to far side, chased leaders, challenged 2f out, soon 2nd, ridden and edged left over 1f out, hung left inside final furlong, ran on gamely to lead near finish
Usually found chasing lost causes in Cl 1 races he has a 3/2/6 record in handicaps since his 3yo days; returned from a 260-day break to take last year’s renewal carrying 9-6 off 105; limitations again exposed, however, when 4/10 in a Gr 3 at Newbury in July and then outclassed when pushed up to Gr 1 for his final two starts of the season; returns from a similar break today (245 days) carrying 4lbs more off a 3lbs higher mark and seeks to emulate Selhurst Flyer in 1997/98 in claiming back-to-back successes.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W);
Minus: up 4lbs (wt) and 3lbs (OR) since last year’s success;
Verdict: likely to run his race and not entirely discounted
Cape Byron 5-9-9 (107) Dr 10 – 124.4
11 May Cl 2 Hcap (654/97.3) 7f gd/sf Ascot 8/1 9-3 0.25l 1/26 off 103 – 124.4
held up in mid-division, headway over 2f out, switched right 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, driven out
Gelded last season and subsequently went close in a number of major 7f hcaps; returned to deservedly take the Victoria Cup here last month for which his mark has been raised 4lbs; however, carries 6lbs more actual weight, which is 3lbs more than he’s ever carried before; while 7f winners have won the Wokingham before, it is a little disconcerting that this will be his first start over a sprint distance, plus not entirely sure the drying ground suits.
Plus: class (W); going (F); course (W); recent form run (42 days); career best lto;
Minus: distance (?); up 4lbs (OR); up 6lbs (wt);
Verdict: fit and in form, but physical weight and no sprint experience add to worries about the drying ground.
Hey Jonesy 4-9-8 (106) Dr 18
Finished 4th in the Middle Park Stks as a 2yo, but never quite made it at that level as a 3yo, his two best efforts coming in Listed class when runner-up at York in May and at Doncaster on his final start in November; gelded and had a breathing operation over the winter and possibly needed the race when runner-up to Dream Of Dreams at Chelmsford in April before finishing 4l 5/10 to Invincible Army (0) in a Gr 2 at York; difficult to position with only a singular hcap start, but fails three key stats and passed over.
Gunmetal 6-9-5 (103) Dr 6 (121.4)
25 May Cl 2 Hcap (311/93.5) 5f gd/fm York 20/1 9-8 1.75l 4/19 off 103 – 120.2
behind, headway over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, never nearer
18 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (467/97.3) 6f gd Ripon 10/1 9-0 2.75l 1/20 off 97 – 121.4
made all on stands side rail and overall leader throughout, ridden clear entering final furlong, ran on strongly
Productive season last year winning three times including the Great St. Wilfrid at Ripon in August; a little slow to find his form this term, but better effort when dropped back to 5f at York lto; runs off the same mark today, but carries 3lbs less physical weight and the return to 6f a boon.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (28 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: looks to be returning to form and worthy of consideration, a contender.
Danzeno 8-9-4 (102) Dr 17 (124.7)
02 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (97/87.6) 5f gd Nott 15/2 9-13 6l 1/7 off 97 – 124.7
tracked leaders, led over 2f out, quickened clear, easily
Not the greatest winning record in recent seasons, although he did win a 622/98.3 over 5f here back in 2017; drew a blank last year, however, including finishing well down the field in last year’s renewal off the same mark; nevertheless, looked a different horse on his return at Nottingham, again over 5f, although that was only a lowly 97/87.6 and faces much stiffer opposition today; does have Frankie aboard to give him a hand, however.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (20 days); down 9lbs (wt)
Minus: 5lbs penalty; up in class; infrequent winner;
Verdict: impressive at Nottingham but this is a whole different ball game and while Frankie a plus this week. This does not look like one of his more likely winners.
Soldiers Minute 4-9-2 (100) Dr 29 (114.1)
15 May Cl 2 Hcap (187/95.0) 6f gd York 20/1 8-9 3l 1/21 off 92 – 114.1
chased leaders, led over 1f out, soon ridden, ran on strongly
Gelded between seasons and returned to win at Kempton at the end of March; raised to Cl 2 thereafter and showed this level not beyond him when an impressive winner at York last month; has been raised 8lbs for that, though, which may prove a bit too much.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (38 days); career best lto;
Minus: course (?); up 8lbs (OR); up 7bs (wt);
Verdict: improvement likely, but will need it under latest handicap and not the strongest contender.

I could keep going as cases could be made for numerous others. However, the Wokingham is usually a crap shoot and applying a few key trends usually removes many seemingly likely contenders. My usual ‘if it’s above 33/1 in the betting then ignore’ removes half a dozen or so no-hopers. Between 1 and 5 hcap wins is a major plus, as is a minimum 17% overall win rate, and a top 4 finish among its last 3 starts, although only one of the last 10 winners had actually won its previous start (!). Then, it is well worth noting that only a pair of 6yo and an 8yo have encroached on what has been 5yo and 4yo territory since the turn of the century.

Still nothing comes through with any confidence as Bacchus (last year’s winner) and Cape Byron (never run over 6f) have major question marks. Hey Jonesy could be a threat, but no hcap form, while lto winner Danzeno is an 8yo – I know, so was Out Do! I don’t honestly think Soldiers Minute is up to this class, but the 6yo Gunmetal might be worthy of consideration. All in all a lot of work for no definitive selections, but perhaps a speculative e/w on Bacchus, with Cape Byron and Gunmetal hopefully more likely to make the frame.

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