Saturday 29th June

[Devasteve]

Back to old habits midweek when picking them in reverse order, not that it matters when taking two against the field or a twist forecast. Had grand ambitions for today, but having waded through the Plate and the 7f hcap there, nothing really stood out in York’s trappy sprint, while Chester’s 7f hcap turned out to be a 3yo-hcap and I didn’t fancy chancing my arm in that. So only two chances of finding a winner today, although I’m also mindful we’ve been on a decent streak for a change. Will it continue?

Newcastle 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap 924 (102.3) 16.5f AW – 20 Run (19 at best)

Last year – 924 (102.5) – 20 ran
Withhold 5/1 F 5-9-1 (99) Dr 11 by 2.75l from Prince Of Arran 16/1 5-9-6 (107) Dr 17
Time To Study 16/1 4-9-10 (108) Dr 16 was 8.25l 6th

Gibbs Hill 6-9-5 (105) Dr 5 (117.7)
Placed on first 2 starts in mdn here back in 2016 before getting off the mark on his hcap debut at Sandown in the July in his final start for the season; Cl 4 wins on the AW at Wolverhampton and Kempton sandwiched a 3/8 in a Cl 2 at York; his Kempton win in a 75/ 87.0 over 12f in first-time blinkers was particularly impressive as he quickened clear of the 7 runners to win by 7l; that was July 2017 though and he’s not been seen since; today he’s way up in class running off an 11lbs higher mark over 4.5f further in a field of 19 runners sans headgear!
Plus: class (F); course (F); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: distance (?); up 2 classes; up 11lbs (OR); up 4.5f; 724-day break; no headgear;
Verdict: subject of major gamble, but a lot has to go right with both fitness and stamina to be taken on trust; not for me!
Stratum 6-9-2 (102) Dr 3 (118.6)
Formerly with Gosden, moved to Mullins after the end of 2016 season; just 2 novice hurdle starts in 2017, but proved a successful Irish raider in a 622/ 96.9 hcap over this distance at Newbury last July carrying 8-12 off 94; well backed for the Ebor, Cesarewitch and a Naas hcap in November where he carried 9-11, he failed to make the top 10 on any occasion; has had a quiet 2019, finishing 4/25 in a valuable HHd at Punchestown in early May and then winning a modest hurdle as expected at Ballinrobe at month’s end; carries 4lbs more off an 8lbs higher mark than at Newbury last July, plus making his AW debut today.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); down 9lbs (wt) from lto;
Minus: Newcastle and AW debut;
Verdict: trainer has great record, but can’t see that being backed by horse’s past from on this occasion.
Kings Advice 5-9-1 (101) Dr 18 (122.9)
25 May Cl 2 Hcap (158/96.2) 14f gd/fm Good 10/11 F 9-3 0.02l 1/6 off 98 – 122.9
made virtually all, strongly pressed throughout final furlong, batted on most gamely, all out
Made it 6/6 this year at up to 14f when gamely hanging on after making virtually all at Goodwood last month; has been raised a further 3lbs, which means he’s up 30lbs since March; he’s also got 2.5f further to travel in a much bigger field than he’s faced before, plus is making his Newcastle and AW debut.
Plus: class (W); form run lto (35 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: Newcastle and AW debut; up 3lbs (OR); up in trip;
Verdict: has answered all questions to date, but this by far the biggest with distance and surface added to another rise in mark.
Who Dares Wins 7-9-1 (101) Dr 7 (124.1)
10 May Cl 2 Hcap (924/99.3) 18.5f sf Chest 6/1 9-0 6l 2/15 off 100 – 118.1
in touch in 6th, pushed along over 4f out, ridden and slightly outpaced 3f out, stayed on into 3rd inside final furlong, went 2nd final strides, no chance with winner
Just the 3 starts in the past 2 years, but all 3 in the frame including 2 in the Chester Cup recording similar figures; not won since taking the 2017 Cesarewitch trial carrying 9-0 off 93; as a 7yo above winner range and suspect he now needs further to be seen at his best; making Newcastle debut.
Plus: class (W); AW (W); distance (W); form run lto (50 days);
Minus: Newcastle debut; up 1lb (wt); up 1lb (OR); down in trip;
Verdict: likely to be staying on late, but just as likely to find the younger horses faster, and thus not a prime contender.
Dubawi Fifty 6-9-0 (100) Dr 8 (124.1)
19 Jun ’18 Cl 2 Hcap (560/94.2) 20f gd/fm Ascot 6/1 9-7 1l 2/19 off 97 – 124.1
set steady pace and stacked up opponents, quickened over 4f out, hard ridden when challenged from over 2f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on
Doughty stayer who has not been seen since finishing runner-up in the 2018 Ascot Stakes with Stratum (-5) 1.25l back in 3rd; certainly well in with S today; goes well fresh as he won his first two starts in 2018, plus has a decent record here (2/3/7) including over C&D.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: up 3lbs (OR); 375-day break;
Verdict: goes well here and has the form over this trip if fit for season reappearance
Time To Study 5-8-10 (96) Dr 15 (128.7)
18 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (560/93.7) 20f gd/sf Ascot 16/1 9-6 4.75l 3/19 off 96 – 119.8
held up, headway over 3f out, led over 1f out, ridden and headed entering final furlong, stayed on
30 Jun ’18 Cl 2 Hcap (924/102.5) 16.5f AW Nwcs 16/1 9-10 8.25l 6/20 off 108 – 128.7
tracked leaders, outpaced 3f out, ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace, no impression after
Won 3 of his 7 starts in 2017, which raised his mark to unwinnable levels throughout last season, although ran by no means badly when 6/20 in last year’s renewal carrying 9-10 off 108; with mark still on the way down, he passed from Johnston to Ian Williams care between seasons; debut over a too short 10f at Lingfield in February to check he still had four legs, was followed by an outing in the Chester Cup where he ran well enough before tiring 2f out; not targeted at the Ascot Stakes, but ran better than expectations to finish 3/19, which certainly suggests he should go well today carrying a stone less than last year.
Plus: class (W); AW (W); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (11 days); down 10lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: has been given a chance by the handicapper and looks a contender to at least make the frame.
One has to be careful with past trends as we only have 3 years on the AW, the race having previously been run on one of the finest turf courses in the country. Still, the last 10 renewals have been the province of 4yo to 6yo, while Som Tala in 2009 was the last winner not to have finished in the top four lto, and Withhold last year was the only one who hadn’t had a current season run.

The following have been passed over for various reasons:
Red Galileo, age plus with his strike rate unlikely to win 2 in a row;
Proschema, unproven stamina and making AW debut;
Bartholomeu Dias, unproven stamina;
Speedo Boy, not the greatest strike rate and making Newcastle debut.

Congratulations to Varian if he can win with Gibbs Hill; it’ll be a great training feat, but not for me. Also not for me is Stratum whose price reflects the trainer rather than the horse’s public form I feel, plus not top four lto! King’s Advice seems only to know how to win, but the run must stop sometime and today may be the day going up in trip on a new surface. Who Dares Wins is a grand stayer, but may need further, plus is a 7yo! Dubawi Fifty not having a run this year disturbs me, but could make the frame. Time For Study is a bit of a reach, but looks to be back on form for his new yard and is thrown in on last year’s performance. So my three against the field is Time For Study from Dubawi Fifty and Kings Advice.

Newcastle 17.15 Cl 2 Hcap 162 (91.9) 7f AW – 9 Run
3yo = 9lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 156 (93.9) – 9 ran
Amazour 4/1 6-9-7 (97) Dr 5 by 1.25l from Gallipoli 5/1 5-9-0 (90) Dr 2

Diocles Of Rome 4-9-2 (87) Dr 8 (112.9)
31 May Cl 3 Hcap (78/86.8) 7f gd/fm Donc 10/1 8-6 2l 1/10 off 80 – 112.9[i]
[i]in touch, headway to chase leaders over 2f out, quicken to lead inside final furlong, ran on
Not been out of the first 2 in his 4 starts on the AW, although Newcastle offers different underfoot conditions; progressive last season and back to winning from on second start at Doncaster on first start in Cl 3; has been raised 7lbs for that and carries 10lbs more physical weight upped in class.
Plus: AW (W); distance (W); form run lto (29 days);
Minus: class (?); Newcastle debut; up 7lbs (OR); up 10lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: improvement required up in class and weight, but could be more to come yet.
Mubhij 4-9-6 (91) Dr 9 (129.2)
09 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (95/86.9) 7f gd/sf Good 7/2 9-13 2.25l 2/8 off 90 – 129.2
tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, every chance inside final furlong, kept on one pace
Just the 5 starts but is a C&D winner here, so no problems there; won a Cl 4 at Yarmouth on his return from a 10-month break; raised 9lbs for that, he was not disgraced when runner-up at Goodwood on his Cl 3 debut at the start of the month; much scope for improvement.
Plus: distance (W); course (W); form run lto (20 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); up 1lb (OR); up in class;
Verdict: looks to be on the up and a likely contender.
Vale Of Kent 4-10-0 (99) Dr 7 (131.0)
19 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (1089/102.8) 8f sf Ascot 33/1 8-13 2.6l 7/28 off 99 – 131.0
raced near side, slight stumble start, chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, no extra towards finish
Typical Johnston-trained horse in winning 6 of his 18 starts last season; not disgraced when 7/28 in the Hunt Cup on his return; might need a lb or two more to come off his mark before getting back to winning.
Plus: class (W); AW (W); distance (W); form run lto (10 days);
Minus: course; up 15lbs (wt);
Verdict: big ask off 10-0 and might need to be dropped a couple more lbs to get to a winning mark again.
Raydiance 4-9-8 (93) Dr 5 (126.1)
22 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (78/90.0) 7f gd Red 9/1 9-2 0.75l 1/12 off 90 – 126.1
tracked leaders, ridden to lead over 1f out, ran on well inside final furlong
Dropped in both class and distance at Redcar last weekend where he recorded a career best in getting back to winning ways; raised 3lbs in mark he’ll carry 6lbs more physical weight as he returns to Cl 2, in which he’s 0/4; moreover, is making AW debut.
Plus: distance (W); form run lto (7 days);
Minus: class; Newcastle & AW debut; up 3lbs (OR); up 6lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: good effort at Redcar last weekend, but thus demands more up in class.

Mubhij looks the one to beat, although Vale Of Kent and Diocles Of Rome could possibly get into the act too.

[martinkil]

I thought you had it with Dubawi Fifty btn a head by the fast finishing winner.
But Mubhij looks the one to beat - and nothing could - a winner