Friday 5th July

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Friday 5th July

Postby Devasteve » Fri Jul 05, 2019 12:04 pm

Thanks Martin, wasn’t too unhappy with last Saturday’s effort even though my second choice just failed to hang on – don’t ask me about my first choice though! Still, I was right about the pair at the front of the market, which gave me some satisfaction. And I did manage to find a winner on the day, short priced though it may have been. This is the first time I’ve had chance to look at anything since, so we’ll see how it goes.

Sandown 16.00 Cl 2 Hcap (247/91.5) 10f gd/fm – 10 Run

Last year – 311 () gd/fm – 8 ran
Melting Dew 3/1 F 4-9-7 (93) Dr 8 by 0.25l from Alfarris 7/2 4-9-7 (93) Dr 2

Badenscoth 5-9-7 (93) Dr 7 (124.7)
14 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (124/83.2) 10f sf Sand 14/1 9-7 2.5l 1/13 off 86 – 124.7
held up towards rear, good headway near side 3f out, led going strongly inside final 2f, came clear final furlong, easily
Predominantly an AW performer, but gained his fist turf success over C&D here last month in fine style and can be looked at as a turf horse too; that was only a Cl 3 though and he moves up to this level for the first time today off a 7lbs higher mark, although carrying the same physical weight; hard to know how fast ground will suit, although was runner-up on gd here on his penultimate turf start in September 2017;
Plus: distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: class (?); going; up 7lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: in fine form, but this a new challenge off a career high mark and thus not the strongest contender perhaps.
Jazeel 4-9-6 (92) Dr 3 (121.7)
31 May Cl 2 Hcap (374/92.8) 10f gd Epsom 7/1 8-8 1l 2/11 off 91 – 119.8
held up towards rear, good headway on outside chasing leaders over 2f out, went 3rd inside final 2f, ridden over 1f out, went 2nd final 50 yards, no chance with winner
28 Sept Cl 2 Hcap (311/87.2) 9f gd/fm Nwmkt 14/1 9-0 0.25l 1/19 off 84 – 121.7
held up towards rear far side, pushed along and headway over 1f out, ridden and ran on to lead towards finish
Useful sort and won the Silver Cambridgeshire on final start for Mick Channon; has put in a couple of good performances for his new connections too, finishing runner-up to Elector (+3) over 9f at Newmarket on his return in early May and occupying the same position to Mountain Angel at the end on the month at Epsom when Elector (+4) was down the field; has inched up another 1lb from that in mark, but carries 12lbs more in physical weight today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (35);
Minus: up 1lb (OR); up 12lbs (wt);
Verdict: looks to be in form, but the physical weight raises questions at this level.
Mutabeeq 4-9-5 (91) Dr 4 (?)
Won a couple of minor races in Ireland on his first two starts, but limitations exposed in listed class on the AW on final start for Dermot Weld; makes his debut for Tregoning today; mark doesn’t look excessive and distance no problem, but fitness to be taken on trust and yet to face fast ground.
Plus: distance (W); down 1lb (OR); down in class;
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 2lbs (wt); 266-day break;
Verdict: could be anything really, but would suspect today is to learn what he’s about.
Elector 4-9-9 (95) Dr 6 (124.5)
31 May Cl 2 Hcap (374/92.8) 10f gd Epsom 3/1 8-12 5.1l 8/11 off 95 – 117.6
tracked leading trio, pushed along on outside over 3f out, weakened 2f out, beaten when hung left on camber over 1f out
04 May Cl 2 Hcap (311/97.0) 9f gd/fm Nwmk 9/1 8-7 0.25l 1/10 off 93 – 124.5
tracked leader, every chance over 1f out, led inside final furlong, pushed out
A 7f winner at Ascot on his sole race as a 2yo, he failed to add to the tally in 6 starts at 3yo; improved to take the former Sussex Stks at Newmarket from Jazeel (-3) on his return in early May; raised just 2lbs for that he never seemed at ease at Epsom, finishing down the field while Jazeel (-4) was again runner-up; should be better suited by today’s field and meets Jazeel on same terms as at Newmarket.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); recent outing (35 days);
Minus: course (?); up 11lbs (wt);
Verdict: again a question of weight, but more likely to return to Newmarket form and a possible contender.
Beringer 4-9-12 (98) Dr 2 (133.1)
A C&D winner on fast ground here last season, he has been dropped back to 8f this, finishing 3rd to Auxerre in the Lincoln and then winning a 162/93.6 at Newmarket carrying 9-5 off 96; raised 3lbs for that he has not been disgraced since in finishing 5/14 in a 311/94.9 at York carrying 9-8 and then 13/28 in the Royal Hunt Cup beaten less than 6l.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (16 days); down 1lb (OR); down in class;
Minus: up 13lbs (wt);
Verdict: useful handicapper who has been in good form and will likely appreciate the return to 10f; however, has a lofty load to carry today and not the strongest contender perhaps.

The high weights all round are a little off-putting, plus we have the potential fly-in-the-ointment in Mutaabeq. However, I feel the latter may just need the race and the price seems to suggest that’s the case. As this is a race that is the preserve of 3yo/4yos and there are none of the younger variety this year, I think I’ll go with Elector to prove his Epsom running all wrong and again get the better of Jazeel with perhaps Beringer best of the rest.

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