Saturday 13th July

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 13th July

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:54 am

Well last week finished much as I expected and today may be the same as we’re into the tricky handicaps stage of the season. So fingers crossed and anything that makes the frame is welcome!

Newmarket 15.30 Cl 2 Hcap 747 (97.2) 7f gd/fm – 20 Run (19 at best)

Last year – 747 (99.3) gd/fm – 18 ran
Burnt Sugar 7/1 6-9-1 (99) Dr 16 by 0.5l
from Shady McCoy 25/1 8-8-13 (97) Dr 5 & Spanish City 7/1 5-8-7 (91) Dr 15

Spanish City 6-9-1 (96) Dr 8 (128.2)
08 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (129/95.9) 6f gd/fm Nwmk 9/2 9-7 1.25l 3/13 off 95 – 128.2
mid-division, ridden and headway over 2f out, hanging left after, switched right inside final furlong, kept on
Improving handicapper last year winning 2 of his first 3 starts and putting in solid efforts thereafter in valuable hcaps including when dead-heat 2nd in last year’s renewal off 91; returned in good heart, just being nailed close home in a 97/87.8 over the Rowley Course in May; likely unsuited by Epsom next time out, but put in a career best over 6f here early last month; has been raised 1lb to a new career high, but carries 6lbs less physical weight for his return to 7f.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (35 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: up 1lb (OR); borderline draw; back up in trip;
Verdict: yet to actually win at this level, but experienced handicapper suited by 7f on a straight course on fast ground, a possible contender.
Solar Gold 4-9-1 (96) Dr 11 (112.4+)
19 Jun List Stks (425/) 7f AW Chelm 9/2 9-0 1.5l 3/14 off 96
switched left soon after start, towards rear, headway when not clear run over 1f out, not much room entering final furlong, ran on, went 3rd close home
Just the 2 hcap starts when with Hills last season, winning a modest 38/72.6 over 8f at Bath in September, carrying 9-11 off 77; moved to Haggas between seasons and has been placed in both her starts in listed company, runner-up over 6f at Haydock in May and then when 3rd in a 7f fillies stks on the AW at Chelmsford last month being beaten 1l and 0.5l by Billesdon Brook and Crossing The Line (0); meets CTL on 4lbs better terms today and should reverse that running; however, lacks experience in big field hcaps and only success came over 8f.
Plus: class (F+); going (F); distance (F); form run lto (24 days); down in class;
Minus: course (?); up 1lb (wt); return to facing males in a hcap;
Verdict: interesting returned to hcaps, but a little light on experience and maybe not the strongest contender.
Ambassadorial 5-9-1 (96) Dr 13 (125.2)
19 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (97/89.4) 7f AW Chelm 8/1 9-7 3.5l 1/11 off 95 – 125.2
led early, soon held up in mid-division, pushed along 3f out, ridden and headway under pressure over 1f out, edged left and led inside final furlong, ran on
Won first 2 starts on the AW in Ireland in 2016 but had rather gone downhill since and was bought out of the Nick Halford stable by his current trainer prior to this season; lost no time in paying his way, winning at Chelmsford for his new yard last month; carries a 5lbs penalty for that success, but as it turf mark was lower he ends up with only a 1lb rise and will actually carry 6lbs less in weight; however, with no worthwhile turf form and going up in class, not one to get too excited about.
Plus: class (W+); distance (W); form run lto (24 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: going; course (?); up in class; 5lbs penalty (OR);
Verdict: with no worthwhile turf form, not a strong contender.
Ripp Orf 5-8-12 (93) Dr 5 (119.6)
Had a career last season counting the Victoria Cup and another valuable Ascot hcap among his successes; not disgraced in the Lincoln on his return and after disappointing in the Spring Cup at Newbury again ran well in the Victoria Cup off a 12lbs higher mark than the previous; as expected, ran poorly at Epsom lto being unsuited by the course but now returns to a course on which he won last year; mark has now dropped to that with which he won at Ascot in September, though today he may have been drawn on the wrong side.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); down 1lb (OR); down 13lbs (wt);
Minus: low draw; jockey not ridden him before; 43-day break;
Verdict: looks to have crept back to a winnable mark, but low draw and new jockey aboard make him a questionable contender today
Vale Of Kent 4-9-4 (99) Dr 14 (125.7)
Won 6 of his 18 starts last season over 7f and 8f, the best being a 189/90.2 at Goodwood in early August carrying 9-3 off 96; by no means disgraced when 7th in the Hunt Cup at Ascot on his return and one can safely ignore his subsequent start at Newcastle where he was slowly away under 10-0 and never got involved on the quirkiest of the AW tracks where he’d run poorly before.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent outing (14 days); down 10lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); jockey not ridden him before;
Verdict: not without a chance if one ignores his Newcastle run lto, and Johnston had a winner here yesterday.
Admirality 5-8-13 (94) Dr 17 (123.8)
06 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (129/85.3) 7f gd/fm Leic 5/2 9-9 2.25l 3/10 off 94 – 118.3
prominent, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on
15 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (249/94.8) 7f gd/sf York 25/1 9-4 1.75l 2/20 off 93 – 123.8
tracked leaders, headway over 2f out, driven to lead over 1f out, soon ridden, headed inside final furlong, kept on
Came over from Johnny Murtagh between seasons and was quickly off the mark for his new yards on his debut at Thirsk in May; found the heavy ground against him at Haydock thereafter, but has since twice been placed, looking particularly at home in the big field at York last month; likely more improvement to come from the stable companion of last year’s winner Burnt Sugar.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (7 days); down 10lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up in class; jockey not ridden him before;
Verdict: stable second string perhaps, but may be the better option of the pair.

Among others to consider are last year’s winner Burnt Sugar who followed up by winning at Ascot a fortnight later off just 1lb higher mark; has not shown in his two Haydock starts this term, however, although the ground has been very different to that of today; runs off a 3lbs higher mark and carries 6lbs more this year though and seems unlikely to emulate Mine the last horse to win in successive years (2005/2006 having previously won in 2002).

Plenty of trends to look at and Mine as an 8yo in 2006 was the last winner outside the 4yo to 6yo age group. The last 10 winners have all started at 16/1 or less, plus none had won either of their last 2 starts; in fact only 1 had won in the current season! Experience is wanted though, as 9/10 had run in at least 11 hcaps, plus had previously been ridden by their current jockey. A current run is normally a must as the last 12 winners had all run within 40 days and generally between 3 and 6 season starts is considered ideal. Other things to bear in mind are that 8 of the last 10 were drawn in stall 9 or higher; from 19 that carried 9-1, 5 won and 6 placed, while of the 18 runners that were beaten between 1 and 2 lengths lto, 5 won and 8 placed. So now, can I marry that lot to my shortlist?

The first pair to go from my list are Ambassadorial (won lto, inexperienced, etc,) and Ripp Orf (low draw, jockey, break). Of the remaining quartet, the filly Solar Gold has little hcap experience and while she’s the right weight and beaten between 1 and 2l lto, I’m always wary of them returning from listed to hcap company; on balance, no. The marginal draw worried me for Spanish City who runs off a 5lbs higher mark than when runner-up last year, but looks to have improved and does like the straight course, so he passes the final cut. So too do the pair who have ‘new’ jockeys aboard today, Vale Of Kent and Admirality, which leaves me with the problem of trying to pick them in the right order. Despite the draw, I have to go for Spanish City from Vale Of Kent perhaps, and with Admirality to prove the better of Fell’s pair.

York 15.50 Cl 2 Hcap 1245 (90.5) 10.5f gd/fm – 22 Run
3yo = 10lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 1245 (97.4) gd/fm – 19 ran
Euchen Glen 20/1 5-9-2 (99) Dr 3 by 2.25l from Thundering Blue 6/1 5-9-4 (100) Dr 5
What’s The Story 12/1 4-8-11 (96) Dr 1 was 5.5l 6th
Another Touch 14/1 5-9-5 (101) Dr 19 was 6.5l 7th
Fayez 66/1 4-8-11 (93) Dr 18 was 11.25l 17th

Setting Sail 4-9-4 (100) Dr 23 (130.3)
28 Jun Cl 2 (129/94.8) 10f gd Nwmk 100/30 9-9 1.5l 1/9 off 95 – 130.3
tracked leader, led 2f out, ridden and ran on
Won a 10f mdn at Goodwood on second start as a 2yo in September 2017, but missed the whole of last season; returned to take a 12f novice at Wolverhampton in April; possible found 12f a mite too far on his hcap debut at Ascot in May before finishing 4/11 to Mountain Angel (+6) and Jazeel (-4) over 10f at Epsom; returned to the winner’s enclosure at Newmarket at the end of June; for which he carries a 5lbs penalty; nevertheless, is lightly raced and there could well be more to come.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); form run lto (15 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?); course (?); 5lbs penalty;
Verdict: wide draw, but obviously suited by 10f and a possible contender.
Stylehunter 4-9-2 (98) Dr 12 (125.4)
19 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (1089/102.8) 8f sf Ascot 22/1 8-13 2.1l 4/28 off 99 – 125.4
raced near side, slowly into stride, behind, headway over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, almost snatched 3rd, never nearer
Twice a winner at up to 10f last year and after a modest return at Newmarket, ran better than expected when a running-on 4th in the Hunt Cup at Ascot; has been eased 1lb by the handicapper, although will carry 3lbs more physical weight; return to 10f will definitely suit and is at home on fast ground.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (24 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?); up 3lbs (wt);
Verdict: will likely appreciate the return to 10f and a contender
Jazeel 4-9-1 (97) Dr 10 (123.8)
05 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (347/91.3) 10f gd/fm Sand 7/2 9-6 0.1 1/10 off 92 – 123.8
held up in mid-division, good headway on outside chasing leaders over 2f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, strong challenge towards finish, led on line
Winner at Sandown and Newmarket last season and after being runner-up in first 2 starts this term, got up late at Sandown last week; carries a 5lbs penalty for that and will find today’s opposition tougher.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (8 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: course; 5lbs penalty;
Verdict: fit and in form but may struggle off new career high mark.
Mountain Angel 5-9-10 (106) Dr 3 (123.3)
Not disgraced when 5/16 in the Wolferton Stks at Ascot having previously enjoyed back-to-back success over this trip at Epsom, beating Aquarium (+4) and Aasheq (0) in the City and Suburban and then Jazeel (-10) with Setting Sail (-6) 4th at the end of May; runs off a 5lbs higher mark than for latest Epsom triumph, plus carried 6lbs more physical weight.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); recent outing (25 days); down in class;
Minus: course; up 7lbs (wt); low draw;
Verdict: looked good at Epsom early season, but may now be paying the penalty.
What’s The Story 5-9-4 (100) Dr 1 (126.4)
19 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (1089/102.8) 8f sf Ascot 12/1 9-0 5.2l 12/28 off 100
raced near side, tracked leader, led over 2f out until just inside final 2f, soon lost 2nd, chased leaders, weakened final furlong
16 May Cl 2 Hcap (311/94.9) 8f gd/fm York 9/1 9-5 1.5l 1/14 off 96 – 126.4
held up in touch in mid-division, effort 3f out, led inside final furlong, ran on well
Runs off a 4lbs higher mark than when 6th in last year’s renewal and back to form when winning over 7f here in mid-May; subsequently below par in the Hunt Cup at Ascot, but could bounce back; however, not convinced this is his trip.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F?); course (W); recent outing (24 days);
Minus: up 4lbs (wt); draw (!);
Verdict: not sure this is his trip, plus stall 1 is no help
Afaak 5-9-12 (108) Dr 24 (132.3)
19 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (1089/102.8) 8f sf Ascot 20/1 9-3 0.02l 1/29 off 103 – 132.3
raced near side, chased leaders, led group and overall 2f out, ridden and ran on well
Gelded between seasons and returned with a tremendous effort to hold off the field and take the Hunt Cup on his return; has a 5lbs penalty for that and now returns to try 10f again; although he finished 4/15 over 10f at Goodwood last season, has yet to win beyond 8f.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F?); course (W); form run lto (24 days);
Minus: 5lbs penalty; up 9lbs (wt);
Verdict: fine effort in the Hunt Cup, but this a different proposition off his big weight and not the strongest contender.

Lots of past stats again, but basically 3yos to 5yos who finished 1-4 in one or more of their last 2 starts. They should have had 2-4 runs this season, the latest no more than 50 days ago. No more than 8 hcap starts preferred with a win over 9/10f, while a win in teh current season is also a plus. Those with a low draw can win – witness last year – but 8/12 have gone to horses drawn 12 or more.

Bit rushed on this, but I’m not top enamoured by the chances of Afaak over this trip, anymore than I’m convinced that 10.5f is the trip for What’s The Story either. So that cuts it to four. Of these, I think Jazeel struggle off his new mark, while I expect Mountain Angel will do the same. So that leaves me with Setting Sail and Stylehunter who are preferred in that order, with perhaps Jazeel reversing earlier running with Mountain Angel to finish 3rd..

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 13th July

Postby martinkil » Sun Jul 14, 2019 8:03 am

In the Bunbury Cup, from your shortlist of 6 you managed the first 4 and the 6th - you're slipping, with Ambassadorial letting you down for a clean sweep of the first six home. You threw out 2 - which left 4 for a combi tricast of 24 bets - and the tricast paid £325 and trifecta £529


Return to “Race Discussion”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests