Friday 19th July

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Friday 19th July

Postby Devasteve » Fri Jul 19, 2019 12:41 pm

Thanks Martin,it is nice when things go mostly to plan, so I couldn’t complain with the way the Bunbury turned out last Saturday. However, I’ll hold my hand up and admit I couldn’t have picked the York winner. First race I’ve looked at since and it’s not exactly one that’s got me reaching for my wallet, but stranger things have happened.

Hamilton 19.40 Cl 2 Hcap 212 (94.6) 6f gd – 15 Run (13 at best)
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 212 (89.9) gd/fm – 10 Ran
George Bowen 9/2 6-9-5 (100) Dr 11 by 2.75l from Classic Seniority 10/1 6-8-11 (87) Dr 3
Dark Defender 22/1 5-8-4 (83) Dr 13 was 15.27l L of 10

Summerghand 5-9-7 (100) Dr 1 (130.5) N/R
06 Jul Cl 2 Stks (140/) 6f gd/fm Hayd 15/8 9-5 1.25l 3/5 off 100
chased leaders, pushed along over 2f out, not pace of front pair over 1f out, stayed on towards finish
Not won since taking a 07/88.7 at Newmarket last August, but showed promise in his first 3 starts this term until disappointing at Haydock lto; previously had finished a creditable 5/29 in the Wokingham carrying 9-2 off 100.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); recent outing (15 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: has shown promise, but yet to actually win at this sort of level and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Admirality 5-9-1 (94) Dr 12 (126.0)
13 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (747/97.2) 7f gd/fm Nwmkt 12/1 8-13 1l 3/17 off 94 – 126.0
in touch far side, headway to lead this group 2f out, overall leader over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, stayed on
Won over 7f at Thirsk in March on debut for new yard with Lake Volta (+8) 1.75l back in 3rd; pair met again at Newmarket on Saturday and again A finished 0.5l to the good in receipt of 9lbs; however, not certain to confirm that running on today’s terms; won in Ireland over 6f, but better form has been shown over 7f.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (6 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: consistent form this term save for failure over 6f in the Haydock mud in early June, but question about trip and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Yousini 3-8-9 (93) Dr 15 (120.7)
15 Jun Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (622/93.0) 6f gd/sf York 20/1 8-12 3.4l 5/22 off 93 – 117.2
mid-division, driven to chase leaders over 2f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong, never on terms
Won his first 2 starts as a 2yo over 5f here and at Carlisle, but has yet to add to his tally; best effort this year was when runner-up at Newmarket on his return in April, although he was not disgraced at York last month.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); course (W); recent outing (34 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: debut against older horses;
Verdict: difficult to judgre but on balance has a tough task taking in older horses for the first time.
Lake Volta 4-9-7 (100) Dr 2 (134.0)
13 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (747/97.2) 7f gd/fm Nwmkt 14/1 9-8 1.5l 5/17 off 103 – 133.9
tracked winner far side, pushed along and unable to quicken 2f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong
24 May Cl 2 Hcap (156/93.1) 6f gd/fm Good 3/1 F 9-9 2.25l 1/8 off 98 – 134.0
quickly away, made all and always going well, ran on well, ridden out, unchallenged
Won over 6f at Goodwood towards the end of May and didn’t run badly to finish 8th in the Wokingham; subsequently disappointed in York sprint, however, although bounced back with a solid effort over 7f at Newmarket on Saturday finishing just 0.5l behind Admirality (-9); has been dropped 3lbs by the handicapper, however, and thus weighted to reverse Saturday’s form dropped back to 6f.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (6 days); down 3lbs (OR); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: runs off only 2lbs higher than for Goodwood win and has to be considered a contender.
Staxton 4-9-7 (100) Dr 7 (129.7)
29 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (156/90.4) 6f AW Newcs 15/2 9-12 1.5l 1/12 off 95 – 134.3
prominent, went 2nd over 2f out, ridden to lead 1f out, ran on well
Back to winning form on the AW at Newcastle lto, although previously had been3.5l back of Admirality (-3) at York, so has some work cut out to reverse that running off 3lbs worse terms; best turf effort came at Newmarket in July last year when winning a 280/96.8 carrying 9-1 off 99; however, it could be that he’s running into form and he’s only off a 1lb higher mark than at Newmarket.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (20 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: not entirely dismissed, but possibly better on AW.

Of others, last year’s winner, George Bowen has shown little since winning at Kempton back in March and while he’s back to the Kempton mark that’s still 2lbs higher than he had when taking last year’s renewal off 4lbs less physical weight against seemingly lesser opposition. The one I can’t get a grip on, meanwhile, is top weight, Laugh A Minute who is making his handicap debut. However, the fact that he’s giving weight to the field means he’s been given no easy task and I think I’ll pass.

I rarely find sprints easy to assess and this is no exception. However, while I know a 3yo has won in the past, I can’t put any great faith in Yousini today, so that’s one down. Nor for that matter am I overly fond of Summerghand’s chances (N/R), so that leaves me with Admirality, Lake Volta and Staxton, none of which are exactly free of questions. Of the three though, I have to think that Lake Volta is best suited by today’s conditions and with the swing in the weights should reverse Saturday’s running with Admirality over this trip. In fact, Staxton may split the pair. So for me it’s Lake Volta from Staxton and Admirality. Let’s hope I’m right.

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