Saturday 20th July

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 20th July

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jul 20, 2019 11:39 am

Got everything right last night EXCEPT I’d missed the winner, who in fairness wasn’t to the fore in the betting of the last forecast I saw, when I also believed the going to be gd/fm. In the event, the going was sf and the winner was 3/4 on sf going. Just shows, you can’t miss a thing. How many things I’ve missed today I don’t know, but it is Saturday.

Newbury 14.25 Cl 2 Hcap 622 (97.4) 16.5f gd/sf – 16 Run

Last year – 622 (96.9) gd/fm – 16 Ran
Stratum 11/4 F 5-8-12 (94) Dr 1 by 3l from Kloud Gate 33/1 6-8-9 (91) Dr 16
Coeur De Lion 17/2 5-8-9 (91) Dr 2 was 3.25l 3rd

Making Miracles 4-9-10 (107) Dr 11 (136.3)
29 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (924/102.1) 16.5f AW Newcs 28/1 9-8 2.6l 7/19 off 108 – 136.3
slowly into stride, behind, headway and switched left 2f out, kept on
In good form early season winning off 98 at Ripon in April and then making all to take the Chester Cup on sf under a 3lbs penalty; however, found the demands of Cl 1 beyond him at Sandown and York thereafter; slowly away in the Northumberland Plate and while he was not beaten that far at the finish, never threatened to get involved at the sharp end; has been dropped 1lb, but one suspects he’ll need further help from the handicapper to return to the winner’s enclosure.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); form run lto (21 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: going; course (?); up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: Pivotal gelding who has won on sf, so no problems with ground; however, looks a little high in the weight and still 6lbs above his winning mark at Chester; not the strongest contender perhaps.
Who Dares Wins 7-9-7 (104) Dr 7 (131.8)
29 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (924/102.1) 16.5f AW Newcs 12/1 9-1 0.1l 1/19 off 101 – 131.8
held up towards rear, closer in mid-division 5f out, headway chasing leaders 3f out, stayed on inside final furlong, led last strides
Finally won the ‘big one’ he’d been threatening when getting up in the last strides to take the Northumberland from Dubawi Fifty and Proschema (-1) with Making Miracles (+7) down in 8th; had previously been beaten 6l by Making Miracles (0) in the Chester Cup; raised 3lbs for his Newcastle win, plus carries 6lbs more physical weight; best turf form has been on faster ground than today, though he does handle softer ground as he showed at Chester,
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: going (?); up 3lbs (OR); up 6lbs (wt);
Verdict: just reward at Newcastle, but one wonders if he can repeat the feat of a 3lbs higher mark, even though the physical weight prove no problem having won with 10-0 at Chester in the past; nevertheless, a contender.
Proschema 4-9-7 (104) Dr 8 (129.7)
29 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (924/102.1) 16.5f AW Newcs 11/1 9-0 1.1l 3/19 off 103 – 129.7
behind, headway on wide outside over 1f out, hung left and stayed on into never nearer3rd near finish
Looks to be a promising stayer and certainly showed he got the trip when raised to this distance for the first time in the Northumberland Plate lto; however, was left with far too much to do by his claiming rider and never threatened Who Dares Wins (+1); raised 1lb for that and will actually meet WDW on 1lb worse terms with Kingscote taking over in the saddle; interestingly, both his wins came on sf, so there should be no problem with today’s ground; still looking for that first hcap win, but looks to be getting closer;
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: up 1lb (OR); up 7lbs (wt); no hcap win;
Verdict: lack of a hcap win worrying, but a potential contender
Withhold 6-9-10 (107) Dr 12
24 Oct Gr 3 Hcap (1300/?) 12f gd Geelong 11/5 F 9-2 5l 8/15 off - ?
with leaders 1l, soon settle in 2nd, pushed along over 3f out, unable to close on leader and ridden 2f out, lost place 1f out and kept on same pace final furlong.
This will only be his 5th start since moving to Charlton’s care in 2017 but he’s won both the Cesarewitch (2017) and the Northumberland Plate off 99 last summer; things didn’t go to plan on his trip ‘down under’ last autumn as he was tapped for pace over 12f at Geelong and ended up having a breathing op. last November; this will be his first start since, but while the break should not be a problem as he runs well fresh, he does run off an 8lbs higher mark than when taking the Plate, plus carries 9lbs more physical weight.
Plus: class (W); distance (W);
Minus: going (?); course (?); 269-day break; up 8lbs (OR); up 9lbs (wt);
Verdict: I know he goes well fresh, but this would be some training feat to improve enough to win this off this mark, thus not the strongest contender,
The Grand Visir 5-9-8 (105) Dr 13 (132.3)
18 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (560/93.7) 20f gd/sf Ascot 12/1 9-10 1.25l 1/19 off 100 – 132.3
towards rear, wide and headway over 2f out, led entering final furlong, ridden and ran on
A former Haggas inmate, he moved to Butler’s care last season where after wind surgery he carried 10-0 to victory over 14.5f at Doncaster in October; that was followed by the move the Williams yard where he had a couple of hurdle starts over the winter; made a far better fist of his first flat start for the yard when finishing 7/15 to Red Galileo over 14f at Newmarket in early June and 10 days later took the Ascot Stks at the Royal Meeting; raised 5lbs for that and carries 2lbs more physical weight today, but interestingly they’ve reached to reapply the cheekpieces as well as the tongue tie; drops back in trip, which may not necessarily be a positive.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (32 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: not overly exposed and may have more to show in staying races, a possible contender.
Carnwennan 4-8-11 (94) Dr 5 (119.5)
29 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (467/86.9) 16.5f AW Newcs 7/2 F 9-3 3.5l 1/15 off 87 – 119.5
mid-division, headway on outside chasing leaders over 3f out, went 2nd inside final 3f, led 2f out, stayed on strongly
Progressive winning three 16f hcaps in a row at York, Chelmsford and Newcastle, but now faces a 7lbs rise as well as facing much tougher opposition; nevertheless, was impressive in winning the Plate consolation at Newcastle and may confirm running with Coeur De Lion even on 7lbs worse terms; whether that will be enough though is another matter.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (21 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 7lbs (OR);
Verdict: progressive stayer, but he’ll need to be that and more to win four in a row.
Coeur De Lion 6-8-10 (93) Dr 6 (120.7)
29 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (467/86.9) 16.5f AW Newcs 7/1 9-4 5.25l 3/15 off 93 – 120.7
held up towards rear, closer in mid-division halfway, plugged on down outside final 2f, went 3rd towards finish, not pace to challenge
Runs off a 2lb-higher mark than when 3rd in last year’s renewal, although thanks to his rider’s claim he’ll actually carry 4lbs less physical weight; was impressive when winning the Chester Plate on hv in May under today’s claimer, but has not gone on from that finishing 5th to The Grand Viser (+12) in the Ascot Stks and 3rd to Carnwennan (-1) in the Northumberland Plate consolation, though meets both on better terms today.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (21 days); down 13lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: capable of going close as he showed last year, but this looks tougher and thus not the strongest contender.

For those wondering why Reshoun is not among the above, it’s a matter of being unproven at the trip, although this will be his first start following a wind operation.

Some major surgery to carry out on my shortlist and I have to think that that indeed it will need a miracle for Making Miracles to win under 9-10, so that’s one down. I also have to have reservations about Withold and while he goes well fresh, he may just need the race this time round off 9-10. At the other end of the scale I’m not sure that Carnwennan can handle both the rise in mark and in the class of opposition he now faces, while Coeur De Lion also faces stronger opposition and runs off a higher mark than when 3rd in last year’s renewal. That leaves me with Plate winner Who Dares Wins, the 3rd placed Proschema and Ascot Stakes winner The Grand Visir. AS always, it’s a matter of getting them in the right order, but I’m going for The Grand Viser from Proschema and Who Dares Wins.

Ripon 15.30 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (90.6) 12f gd – 9 Run

Last year – 156 (91.5) gd – 13 ran
Benadalid 16/1 3-8-0 (83) Dr 13 by 0.5l from Appointed 9/1 4-8-12 (84) Dr 8

Charles Kingsley 4-10-0 (97) Dr 9 (131.2)
Won back-to-back hcaps at Hamilton and Brighton around the end of May/ early June and didn’t run badly when upped in class over 13f at Ayr; however, out of his depth at Haydock lto and the jury’s still out at this level
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); recent outing (14 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?); up 15lbs (wt);
Verdict: has won with this weight, but lower class and has to prove he belongs at this level; not the strongest contender perhaps.
Fayez 5-9-12 (95) Dr 7
Exposed handicapper (mainly on AW) but won over 9f and 10f here in May/June and didn’t run badly at York last weekend finishing in midfield with it not being run to suit; upped to 12f for the first time and we’ll have to ask whether he stays the trip.
Plus: class (W); going (W); course (W); recent run (7 days); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: distance (?); up 11lbs (wt);
Verdict: question about the trip looms large and thus a contender with questions.
Mutamaded 6-9-1 (84) Dr 2
All 3 wins have come here over 10f here and generally runs well on his visits; needs a strong gallop to be seen at his best and that he didn’t get last time when 2/6 in a Cl 4 hcap over C&D; point to note that he’s beaten very few home in his 5 starts in Cl 2 just 7 of 53!
Plus: going (W); distance (F); course (W); form run lto (5 days); down 12lbs (wt)
Minus: class (0/5); up 2 classes;
Verdict: poor record in this class against his good record here, and again throw in the distance debate; a contender with questions.

As you can see, little time to look at this and nothing really stands out as they all have major questions. Can Fayez stay the trip, can Mutamaded or Charles Kingsley win in this class? It’s all guess work, but I’d go for Charles Kingsley from Fayez, perhaps; now watch Mutamaded steam home!!

Newmarket 15.50 Cl 2 Hcap 194 (93.7) 8f gd/fm – 11 Run (9 at best)
3yo = 8lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 280 (90.7) gd/fm – 9 ran
Vintager 2/1 F 3-9-9 (102) Dr 4 by 4.5l from Ripp Orf 3/1 4-9-7 (92) Dr 7

Global Gift 3-8-11 (91) Dr 2 (119.6)
28 Jun Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (78/84.3) 8f gd Donc 9-3 10/1 1.5l 1/6 off 85 – 119.6
raced keenly, soon steadied rear, steady headway on outside over 2f out, went 2nd over 1f out, led approaching final furlong, kept on to assert towards finish
Unraced as 2yo, but has been progressive as a 3yo winning his last 3 starts since being switched to hcaps; again impressive at Doncaster in his latest success at the end of June for which he has been raised 6lbs; however, as he takes on older horses for the first time today, plus rises in class, he’ll carry 6lbs less physical weight; only slight negative is that he ran poorly here on gd/fm on his only other fast ground start, although that was only in his second race.
Plus: distance (W); form run lto (22 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going; course; up 6lbs (OR); up in class; takes on older horses;
Verdict: obviously progressive 3yo who is open to further improvement on just his 6th start, but is going up in class against older horses and not the automatic winner perhaps
Indeed 4-10-0 (100) Dr 4 (131.3)
19 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (162/95.0) 10f AW Chelm 6/1 9-4 0.75l 1/10 off 96 – 131.3
chased leader, led over 1f out, edged left, stayed on well
French import who made an impressive UK debut by running Chatez to 0.25l in the Newbury Spring Cup back in April, only being headed late on; off then until mid last month when staying on well to take the victory over 10f at Chelmsford; raised 4lbs for that, but will have to carry 10lbs more in physical weight, not sure the drop back to 8f is entirely in his favour, plus note that both his turf wins in France came on sf ground.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); form run lto (31 days);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up 10lbs (wt);
Verdict: weight is a big question, but an improver and a contender perhaps.
Petrus 4-9-13 (99) Dr 5 (131.7) (N/R)
06 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (462/96.7) 8f gd/fm Sand 12/1 9-6 1.75l 3/13 off 99 – 131.7
raced wide in mid-division, headway out wide 2f out, chasing leaders over 1f out, went 3rd last strides and closed on 2nd, not trouble winner
Started the season well with wins in the Spring Mile and at Bath, followed by a close 4/14 at Newbury; disappointed in Hunt Cup at Ascot, but bounced back with a decent effort at Sandown lto; runs off the same mark today, but carries 7lbs more physical weight, 5lbs more than he’s ever carried before; however, ground and distance will suit.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (14 days);
Minus: up 7lbs (wt)
Verdict: big question about weight, but only 2lbs above last winning mark and a contender.
Alternative Fact 4-9-4 (90) Dr 7 (128.2)
15 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (247/92.6) 8f gd/sf Sand 12/1 9-8 2.5l 3/12 off 89 – 128.2
chased leaders, 2nd 5f out, led 3f out until ridden and headed approaching final furlong, 3rd and one pace inside final furlong
Only success came as a 2yo back in 2017, although last season was campaigned solely from 10f to 12f, as were his first 2 starts this; dropped back to 8f at Sandown last month for the first time since his 2yo days he showed some improvement, only being found out in the final furlong; mark has been raised 1lb but will carry 4lbs less physical weight today; however, I do note his best form has been on gd/sf or sf.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (35 days); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: improvement last time, but not sure whether due to change in distance or going and not the strongest contender in the field.
Victory Command 3-9-3 (97) Dr 8 (126.2)
13 Jul Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (187/92.0) 8f gd/fm Nwmk 5/2 F 9-7 2.75l 4/5 off 97 – 126.2
dwelt soon led stand side group until over 1f out, kept on same pace
Listed win among 4 successes as a 2yo, but had to wait until penultimate start to add to his tally this term, being favourite when taking an all-age hcap at Hamilton; not so fortunate back among his own age group here last weekend, although not beaten far; runs off the same mark today but carries 4lbs less taking on his elders again.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (7 days); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: conditions suit and a 3yo has won in the past, a contender perhaps.

It’s easy to see why top and bottom are to the fore in the betting, as at least they have form. The thing that worries me is that neither have form on fast ground. Another one that could prefer softer ground is Alternative Fact and I think I can drop him right away. Now I see Petrus is not running, I’m just left with Indeed, Victory Command and Global Gift. Not a race I’d be interested in, but I’d take them in that order.

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