I was looking at the “rain radar” last night and a thick band of extensive rain was moving over the Ascot area and I thought the GF good in places was likely to change to GS Soft in places, or maybe even worse. So I powered up Patternform and selected the Soft and GS going filter initially in the big 7f handicap gave MAKZEEM 16141, the 4 and 6 were both in 18 runner Ascot 7f handicaps. I then watched it's last race on GS at Newbury where he showed an explosive turn of foot in what looked a slowly run affair to come from last at the 2f pole to be 4l clear at the line. He's showed that he can be competitive in big field 7f Ascot handicaps, he acts on the likely GS and has run well after a break of a week.
It's worth looking back a couple of year to 2017 when Makzeen won a 7f Hcap at Newmarket in a similar style to his last start. He then came out a week later and was made favourite for the 112k heritage handicap (the Challenge cup) and having been held up, he burst through to join the leaders at the furlong pole, trading down to 1.7 from 10.5, but being unable to sustain his effort and finishing 4th. He carried a 6lb penalty that day, and carries a 3lb penalty today for the 4l victory last week.
I managed 15 last night on BF, but it has already been shrunk to 13.6 with the 4 NR and at this rate will probably match the Bfsp by flag fall !!
There is yet another complication with the going. The straight course going stick reading of - Stands side: 8.1, Centre: 8.6, Farside: 8.1. implies that the centre of the track could ride fastest. Since Makzeen is held up I could well see Watson switching in behind to the middle of the course (along no doubt with many others) which could well see a congested centre for Makzeem to thread his way through, so this may well be a “seat of the pants” ride, and lets hope we don't collect the “unlucky loser” prize!
Most likely I'll look to trade back at a lower price as he threads his way through looking for the gaps, but leaving a good chunk on the nose
Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
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