Saturday 27th July

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 418
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 27th July

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jul 27, 2019 11:29 am

A small priced trimmed some of the losses last week when things didn’t go as I would have liked. I now expect more of the same this week with the going changing from gd/fm to gd/sf overnight – going changes always kill me! I think you could well be right Martin, but I've run out of time!

York 14.40 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (92.3) 6f gd/sf – 18 Run (16 at best)

Last year – 311 (94.2) sf – 14 ran
Flying Pursuit 9/1 5-8-13 (94) Dr 6 by 0.25l from Golden Apollo 4/1 F 4-8-13 (94) Dr 1
Summerghand 16/1 4-9-0 (95) Dr 18 was 3.5l 3rd
Growl 7/1 6-9-4 (99) Dr 16 was 2.6l 4th
Muscika 16/1 4-8-9 (90) Dr 12 was 5.36l 8th

Staxton 4-9-6 (100) Dr 6 (136.1)
19 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (323/94.2) 6f gd/sf Ham 7/1 9-7 2.5l 3/13 off 100 – 128.6
close up, ridden over 1f out, kept on one pace
Back in the winner’s enclosure at Newcastle at the end of June and then a very creditable 3rd in the Scottish Stewards Cup at Hamilton last weekend; carries 1lb less physical weight this weekend and could be thereabouts again.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (8 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: in good form and should be thereabouts, a contender.
Camacho Chief 4-9-6 (100) Dr 8 (134.0)
16 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (78/88.3) 5f sf Donc 9/4 F 9-12 1.5l 1/7 off 95 – 134.0
took keen hold, chased leaders, effort 2f out, led over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, driven out
Career best when a clear winner from Duke Of Firenze (-5) at Doncaster last month; the falling rain brings him into contention perhaps, though he’s yet to win over 6f.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); course (F); form run lto; down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: up 5lbs (OR);41-day break;
Verdict: in good form when last seen at Doncaster and will be helped by the falling rain; however, not the strongest contender over 6f.
Tomily 5-8-7 (87) Dr 3
24 Jul Cl 4 Hcap (61/74.7) 6d gd/sf Catt 11/4 5-9-12 1.5l 1/7 off 82 – 120.4
bumped after start, held up and behind, headway and switched left to inside 2f out, pushed along to led inside final furlong, ran on well
Bought out of a seller, he’s now 2/2 for O’Meara after Wednesday’s success at Catterick; carries a 5lbs penalty for that but is obviously improving fast and with the ground suiting he may make his mark of his low weight.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (3 days); down 19lbs (wt);
Minus: course; 5lbs penalty;
Verdict: maybe worth a pint from his low draw.
Gulliver 5-9-6 (100) Dr 7 (131.7)
29 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (311/93.8) 6f gd/fm York 20/1 9-2 1.5l 1/18 off 95 – 129.5
chased leaders, pushed along 3f out, headway 2f out, driven to lead over 1f out, soon ridden, ran on final 100 yards
Back to form over C&D here at the end of last month beating Growl (-7) and Golden Apollo(-4) by 1.5l and 2l, respectively; raised 5lbs for that and now meets them on 4lbs and 6lbs worse terms, respectively, although GA has a double digit draw; that was his first win for O’Meara, but when he was with Palmer won three on the trot (on the AW though).
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: up 5lbs (OR); up 4lbs (wt);
Verdict: obviously back to his best and a contender based on that running.

Little time for this, especially when I discovered the going has gone from gd/fm to gd/sf. Nevertheless, that may help in that although Flying Pursuit has won the past 2 renewals, this time round he is drawn in stall 16 and while some do win drawn high, low draws are generally favoured, particularly on softer ground. Thus I’ve looked at the better prospects drawn in single digits. I’m a bit ambivalent about Growl, but it is some time since he last won, so I decided to pass. I’m also going to pass on Camacho Chief over 6f, so that leaves Gulliver, Staxton and Tomily. However, my final order is Staxton from Gulliver with Tomily making the frame perhaps.

Ascot 15.00 Cl 2 Hcap 934 (97.6) 7f gd/sf – 29 Run (24 at best)
3yo = 7lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 934 (96.7) gd/fm – 27 ran
Burnt Sugar 20/1 6-9-2 (100) Dr 11 by 0.75l from Arbalet 16/1 3-8-13 (104) Dr 18
Ripp Orf 8/1 4-8-8 (92) Dr 16 was 1l 3rd
Spanish City 9/1 5-8-7 (91) Dr 15 was 1.4l 6th
Zap 33/1 3-8-6 (97) Dr 3 was 1.62l 9th
Firmament 12/1 6-9-1 (99) Dr 24 was 2.89l 12th
Makzeem 12/1 5-9-5 (103) Dr 26 was 6.51l 18th

Vale Of Kent 4-9-5 (101) Dr 8 (129.6)
13 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (747/97.2) 7f gd/fm Nwmk 13/2 9-4 0.5l 1/17 off 99 – 129.6
led far side group, pushed along and headed 2f out, rallied to lead again and overall leader inside final furlong, ran on
Relatively light campaign this season compared to last when he won 6 of his 18 starts, but benefited from a fine Frankie ride when winning the Bunbury largely from the front; supposed to carry 3lbs extra, but as his mark was to drop 1lb he runs off only 2lbs higher today and carries just 1lb more physical weight; several of those behind him at Newmarket try again, but mindful that Burnt Sugar won both last season I’m not that ready to desert him.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (14 days);
Minus: up 2lbs (OR); up 1lb (wt); only 3 season runs;
Verdict: impressive at Newmarket and has to be considered here.
Lake Volta 4-9-4 (100) Dr 17 (130.4)
19 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (323/94.2) 6f gd/sf Ham 5/1 9-7 1.25l 2/13 off 100 – 126.5
in touch, headway 2f out, ridden and stayed on to chase winner inside final furlong
13 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (747/97.2) 7f gd/fm Nwmk 14/1 9-8 1.5l 5/17 off 103 – 130.4
tracked winner far side, pushed along and unable to quicken 2f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong
Had a busy season like most Johnston horses, but has won 2 of his 10 starts to date, over 7f at Yarmouth in April and 6f at Goodwood in May; not disgraced when 5th to stable companion Vale Of Kent (-3) in the Bunbury with Admirality (-9) just 0.5l ahead in 3rd; then reversed that form with Admirality over 6f at Hamilton when finishing 1.75l ahead of him on 3lbs better terms; meets A on Hamilton terms and VOK on 4lbs better terms than at Newmarket and thus it would be no surprise were he closer to his table companion today; only negarive is that he’s never won a race with more than 8 runners!
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (8 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: mid draw;
Verdict: weighted to perhaps reverse Bunbury running with Vale Of Kent and a possible contender,
Spanish City 6-9-0 (96) Dr 11 (123.9) (N/R)
13 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (747/97.2) 7f gd/fm Nwmk 7/1 9-1 1.25l 4/17 off 96 – 123.9
in touch centre, headway 2f out, stayed on one pace final furlong
Runs off a 5lbs higher mark than when a close 6th in last year’s renewal and has run with credit in a number of these valuable 7f hcaps both here and at Newmarket, the latest when a close 4th in the Bunbury splitting Admirality (-2) and Lake Volta (+5); the fact remains though that he’s yet to win in Cl 2.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (14 days); down 1lb (wt)
Minus: yet to win in Cl 2;
Verdict: consistent sort, but perhaps lacks the form to contend for the win here.
Ripp Orf 5-8-11 (93) Dr 26 (122.2)
13 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (747/97.2) 7f gd/fm Nwmk 8/1 8-12 2l 6/17 off 93 –118.3
in rear centre, pushed along over 2f out, headway over 1f out, ridden and stayed on inside final furlong
Had a career last season when winning 4 times including the Victoria Cup, but things just haven’t dropped right this time round and after 5 starts he’s still looking to make the frame; still he’s running with credit as latest effort in the Bunbury shows, beaten only 2l in 6th; however, mark is down to that when winning here last September and does appear to like Ascot.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (14days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: loves this C&D and can’t be ignored, a contender.
Admirality 5-8-12 (94) Dr 1 (122.8)
19 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (323/94.2) 6f gd/sf Ham 9/2 F 9-1 3.5l 4/13 off 94 – 114.8
taken to post early, close up, ridden over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong, no extra and lost 2 places close home
13 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (747/97.2) 7f gd/fm Nwmk 12/1 8-13 1l 2/17 off 94 – 122.1
in touch far side, headway to lead this group 2f out, overall leader over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, stayed on
A winner over 6f at Carlisle when with Murtagh, joined Fell between seasons and won over 7f on his return at Thirsk in April; consistent since and not disgraced when 3rd to Vale Of Kent in the Bunbury before only being beaten for pace late on at Hamilton last week in the Scottish Stewards Cup; will likely appreciate the return to 7f
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (8 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); 4lbs above last winning mark;
Verdict: not overly impressed with stall 1, but they have won from the one next door; fit and in form, so a possible contender.
Arbalet 4-9-5 (101) Dr 15 (122.5)
29 Jun List Stks (208/) 8f gd/fm Wind 20/1 9-6 3.9l 4/7 off 102 –
held up, not much room and faltered on bend just over 5f out, ridden over 2f out, effort entering final furlong, went 4th post
Beaten 0.75l by Burnt Sugar (+3) in last year’s renewal on hcap debut and while he carries 6lbs more as a 4yo, runs off a 3lbs lower mark; hasn’t matched that form in listed company this term, but showed a bit more at Windsor lto and now returns for his second try at handicaps,
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); recent form run (28 days); down in class; down 1lb (OR); down 1lb (wt); down in trip;
Minus:
Verdict: conditions in his favour and has to be considered if running up to last year’s level.

Competitive as ever as you’d expect from a race where only 4 of the last 10 winners have started at less than 20/1! So we have our work cut out, as do 3yo and those over 6yo as Burnt Sugar last year was the first horse that wasn’t 4/5yo to win in 12 years. Another fact to mark is that the past 12 winners has all had at least 4 prior runs that season. Thus for one reason or another, the following don’t make my list: Raising Sand, Makzeem, Kaeso and Land Of Legends. PS. Makzeem maybe should!!

Of the half dozen that did, I have to worry about Spanish City (class) (N/R) and Admirality who doesn’t look that well in here. So that leaves me with Arbalet, Lake Volta, Ripp Orf and Vale Of Kent. I’d be pleased if any of these won, but am tempted to go with Lake Volta from Arbalet with Vale Of Kings and Ripp Orf fighting it out for the minor places. Apologies on this, but the analysis was based on presumed gd/fm going!

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