Wednesday 31st July

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
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Wednesday 31st July

Postby Devasteve » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:06 pm

Reasonably pleased with yesterday’s effort in that my final four made the first five places, the only sad thing being that I failed to include the winner. I did look at him, but couldn’t find grounds to warrant inclusion! Today is a bit if an interlude, as I normally give races this length a miss due to their unpredictability. Still there was nothing else of interest, so…..

Goodwood 13.50 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (86.9) 20.5f gd – 20 Run

Last year – 311 (85.4) gd – 14 Ran
Lil Rockerfeller 11/4 F 7-8-13 (82) by 15l from Altaayil 20/1 7-9-6 (89)

Dubawi Fifty 6-9-7 (102) (141.1)
29 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (924/102.1) 16.5f AW Newcs 14/1 9-0 0.1l 2/19 off 100 – 141.1
raced keenly, tracked leader until halfway, remained prominent, led going well over 2f out, narrowly headed inside final 2f, in front again inside final furlong, driven and headed final strides
Just the 5 starts on turf but consistent stayer who was 4th in the Chester Cup and runner-up in the Ascot Stks on his 2 turf starts last season; excellent effort on his return this season when runner-up in the Northumberland Plate. Just getting nailed in the final strides; raised 2lbs for that, but has to be considered if repeating that running.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (F); form run lto (32 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs (OR); up 7lbs (wt);
Verdict: has been given time to recover from his Newcastle exertions and has to be considered a contender.
The Grand Visir 5-9-10 (105) (140.8)
20 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (622/97.4) 16.5f gd/sf Newb 7/1 9-8 7l 7/16 off 105 – 138.1
held up towards rear, headway on outside over 2f out, soon ridden, weakened inside final furlong
18 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (560/93.7) 20f gd/sf Ascot 12/1 9-10 1.25l 1/19 off 100 – 140.8
towards rear, wide and headway over 2f out, led entering final furlong, ridden and ran on
Winner of last month’s Ascot Stks under a big weight and subsequent race at Newbury not helped by the measured pace at which it was run; return to longer distance a plus, but while he has won on gd/fm, best form has been shown with ground on the softer side of gd.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent outing (11 days); back up in trip;
Minus: course; up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: relatively quick return, plus going concerns make him a contender with questions.
Lil Rockerfeller 8-9-4 (99) (123.5)
01 Aug ’18 Cl 2 Hcap (311/85.4) 20.5f gd Good 11/4 F 8-13 15l 1/14 off 82 – 123.5
led until 14f out, clear with leader until led again 10f out, came back to field 4f out, ridden and kicking in 2f out, going well clear and in no danger over 1f out, stayed on very strongly, eased close home
Winner over both hurdles and fences, turned last year’s renewal into a procession on first flat start in 3 years; returning to the NH realm to win 3 novice chases, he had wind surgery in January and was last seen when midfield in the County Hdl at Cheltenham in March; runs off a 17lbs higher mark this time round, although only carries 5lbs more physical weight.
Plus: class (W); going (W); going (W); course (W);
Minus: 364-day break (140 days Jumps); up 17lbs (OR); up 5lbs (wt);
Verdict: goes well fresh, but 17lbs higher in the hcap than when slaughtering last year’s field; nevertheless, a contender.
Mancini 5-8-12 (93) (132.1)
13 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (97/86.0) 16.5f Hcap York 11/10 F 9-7 0.1l 1/5 off 91 – 132.1
led, ridden and headed approaching final 2f, chased leader, ridden to challenge and edged left inside final furlong, rallied to lead again final strides
Won over 16f here last season and back in the winner’s enclosure at York mid-month; that was in Cl 3, however, and had previously been beaten over 11l when 7/19 to The Grand Vizir in the Ascot Stks; runs off a 2lbs higher mark today, although will carry 9lbs less physical weight.
Plus: going (W); course (W); form run lto (18 days); down 9lbs (wt);
Minus: class; distance; up in class; up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: stamina to prove and yet to win at this level, so not the strongest contender
True Destiny 4-8-1 (82) (118.9)
29 Jun Cl 4 Hcap (89/72.8) 16.5f gd/fm York 7/4 F 9-7 1.25l 1/13 off 79 – 118.9
mid-division, smooth headway over 3f out, led over 2f out, soon ridden and hung right, continued to hang right towards stands side rail inside final furlong, held on well
Building a fine record as a stayer, not being out of the first 2 in 6 starts at 16f or more at lower levels, latest success coming at York last month; has been 3lbs for that, although will carry 20lbs less actual weight as that was only Cl 4; this far bigger task, plus he’s stepping up in trip as well.
Plus: form run lto (32 days); down 20lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going (?); distance (?); course (?); up 3lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: could possibly get involved, but not the strongest of contenders.

With a flag start, a rarity in modern-day UK flat racing, there’s no need to worry about the draw, but picking winners in distance races is not so much science as sorcery. Among those I’ve omitted, it would come as no great surprise were Prescott’s Timoshenko to run well, although it’s almost a year since his last run when completing a 5-timer over 16f at Musselburgh, plus this a far stiffer task. Others who might go well include The Cashel Man, Paddys Motorbike and Morrison’s pair, Fun Mac and Early Summer, although I’ve given up on Fun Mac ever actually winning again!

Still, in paring my shortlist down to size, I think I’ll pass on the lower weighted True Destiny plus Mancini to concentrate on the ones at the top of the weights. Top weight The Grand Visir might prefer a little give in the ground, plus has been busy of late, while Lil Rockerfeller runs off a 17lbs higher mark than last year. Thus I’m going to pin my faith on Dubawi Fifty who looked in fine fettle at Newcastle and will appreciate the step back up in trip. So Dubawi Fifty for me, with Lil Rockerfeller and The Grand Visir chasing him home.

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