Thursday 1st August

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
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Thursday 1st August

Postby Devasteve » Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:55 am

Satisfied that I gave yesterday’s winner an honourable mention, although I couldn’t have backed it, but otherwise I didn’t fare that well. More experimenting today with a 3yo-hcap, things I rarely look at. Let’s hope I fare better!

Goodwood 13.50 Cl 2 3yo-Hcap 467 (95.8) 10f gd – 11 Run

Last year – 467 (93.0) gd – 12 ran
Communique 7/2 F 3-8-13 (97) Dr 4 by 1.5l from Zaman 12/1 3-9-7 (105) Dr 2

Walkinthesand 3-9-7 (110) Dr 4 (130.1)
12 Jul Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (498/92.9) 10f gd/fm Nwmk 9/1 9-7 1l 1/14 off 105 – 130.1
tracked leaders, headway over 2f out, led final furlong, kept on towards finish
Narrowly beaten in a 7f mdn at Sandown on his debut last August, he made amends over the same C&D the following month; runner-up in listed company over 9f and 10f at Newmarket on his return in April and early May, he found them going a bit too fast late on when dropped to 8f in similar company later in the month; showed that 10f is currently his distance though when producing a career best in beating Korcho (-15) on his hcap debut at Newmarket last month; has been raised 5lbs for that and meets K on 2lbs worse terms, but carries the same physical weight.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (20 days);
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: obviously a smart colt and likely this is the last time we’ll see him in a hcap for a while, a contender.
Almania 3-8-6 (95) Dr 8 (121.9)
13 Jul Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (311/92.9) 12f gd/fm Ascot 4/1 9-1 1.75l 3/7 off 95 – 121.9
held up towards rear, pushed along and switched left turning in, headway over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong
20 Jun Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (560/95.5) 12f gd/sf Ascot 16/1 8-11 3l 5/16 off 95 – 118.9
mid-division, headway over 3f out, soon chasing leaders, hung right over 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong
Won a 7f Sandown mdn on second and final start as 2yo, but yet to make it back to the winner’s enclosure as a 3yo; was slowly away on return at York in May and never featured, and has since stayed on one-paced in the final furlong in a pair of 12f hcaps at Ascot; drops down in trip today, plus carries 9lbs less physical weight off the same mark.
Plus: class (F); form run lto (19 days); down 9lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?); distance; course (?);
Verdict: just 6th start so likely more to come and drop in trip might be of help, a contender.
Sinjaari 3-8-7 (96) Dr 7 (119.1)
20 Jun Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (560/95.5) 12f gd/sf Ascot 4/1 8-13 11.25l 8/16 off 97
raced alone on far side until joined main group after 3f, in touch, headway on outside to chase leaders over 3f out, hung right under pressure over 2f out, hung left over 1f out, weakened approaching final furlong
18 May Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (436/88.1) 10f gd Newb 3/1 F 9-1 0.1l 2/15 off 89 – 119.1
held up in mid-division, headway chasing leaders went 2nd over 1f out, strong challenge close home, just failed
Just the one start as a 2yo, over 7f at Sandown last June, before joining his current yard between seasons; has fared well, narrowly beaten in a 10f novice at Redcar in early April before taking a Windsor towards the end of the month; only just denied on his hcap debut at Newbury in May, before running a strange race over 12f at Royal Ascot, initially running alone and then after joining the main pack, running out of gas later on; whether that was due to his early exertions, the fact he didn’t get the trip, or the softest ground he’d faced to date, is unknown; has been dropped 1lb and carries 6lbs less physical weight today, plus will likely appreciate the drop back in distance.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent outing (42 days); down 1lb (OR); down 6lbs (wt); drop in trip;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: if one ignores the Ascot run he ticks a lot of boxes and is a definite contender.
Korcho 3-8-4 (93) Dr 1
12 Jul Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (498/92.9) 10f gd/fm Nwmk 12/1 8-6 1l 2/14 off 90 – 113.6
held up mid-division, headway over 3f out, every chance over 1f out, kept on and held towards finish
Won over 8f at Kempton last September in 5 starts as a 2yo, and returned to win over 10f at Windsor in mid-April; after a couple of disappointing efforts at Newbury and muddy Haydock, returned to winning ways when dropped to Cl 4 back at Windsor; put in bst effort to date, however, when only beaten 1l by Walkinthesand (+15) at Newmarket last month; raised 3lbs for that, though carrying 2lbs less physical weight, he meets the winner on 2lbs better terms today.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (20 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: course; up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: more exposed than some, but improving and a contender on Newmarket running.
Forest Of Dean 3-8-4 (93) Dr 5 (117.7)
18 May Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (436/88.1) 10f gd Newb 7/2 9-5 3.75l 4/15 off 93 – 117.7
slowly into stride, soon mid-division on inside, good headway chasing leaders over 2f out, no extra inside final furlong
Three starts at 2yo, best being when going down by 0.25l at in a 7f Newcastle mdn in November; off the mark there over 10f on next start in February and after being runner-up on his hcap debut over 10f at Redcar in early April, won a similar race at Doncaster at the end of the month; was a little slowly away when upped to this level at Newbury in May, but was thereabouts until found lacking in the final furlong; has been given a break since, but appears to go well fresh.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto; down 15lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); 75-day break;
Verdict: proven at distance and on ground, but returning from a break and facing much tougher opposition, so a contender with questions.

Young improving horses are difficult to gauge and, like yesterday, this is more an exercise of exploration to know how far I can push my methodology rather than a firm analysis. For elimination purposes, some like Wargrave have been struck off because I simply haven’t got a clue where to place him, while although Johnston saddled last year’s winner, Victory Command hasn’t done enough of late to excite me, and The Trader was way down the field at Newmarket lto and looks unlikely to reverse running with Walkinthesand and Korcho. Coolagh Forest, meanwhile, is another that looks out of his depth in this company.

In giving chances to the rest, I must admit that I’m not even sure that I’ve got the ‘right’ Haggas horse on my shortlist! Still, in trying to cut it down to size I’m a little wary of Forest Of Dean coming back from a break, while I’m not 100% sure that this is the right trip for Almania. The Newmarket race where Walkinthesand beat Korcho looks the best current form on show, while I’m prepared to forgive Sinjaari his Ascot disappointment. So those are the three for me and even though Walkinthesand is giving a stone or more to the rest of the field, he does look head and shoulders above the rest and is taken to add to his tally before displaying his talents in higher company. Thus I’m going for Walkinthesand with Sinjaari perhaps having too much for Korcho.

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