Friday 2nd August

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
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Friday 2nd August

Postby Devasteve » Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:53 am

Yesterday reminded me why I normally leave 3yo races alone, not that the winner wasn’t eminently backable, it’s just that I didn’t pick it! So on to the Golden Mile today, which will glitter for some lucky person – let’s hope it’s me.

Goodwood 15.00 Cl 2 Hcap 934 (100.3) 8f gd – 20 Run
3yo = 7lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 934 (98.1) gd/fm – 17 ran
Seniority 9/2 Jt F 4-9-2 (98) Dr 3 by 0.5l from Poet’s Society 12/1 4-8-11 (93) Dr 7
Original Choice 12/1 4-9-1 (97) Dr 17 was 0.75l 3rd
Escobar 9/2 Jt F 4-9-6 (102) Dr 2 was 3.75l 8th

Mojito 5-9-6 (104) Dr 9 (130.4)
06 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (462/96.7) 8f gd/fm Sand 4/1 F 9-8 1.25l 1/13 off 101 – 130.4
well away, pulled hard and kept wide early, made virtually all, ridden final furlong, ran on strongly, unchallenged
Highly progressive as a 3yo winning 3 of 6 starts, but missed the whole of last season; however, showed he still has plenty left in the tank when running away from his field at Sandown to win unchallenged from Escobar; seeing the latter has since franked that form at York and they meet on exactly the same terms, it’s hard to see a reversal; moreover, the 3lbs penalty means he’s at least 4lbs ahead of the handicapper.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (27 days); down 2lbs (wt); single-digit draw;
Minus: course (?); 3lbs penalty;
Verdict: looks to be a strong contender;
Escobar 5-9-3 (101) Dr 12 (133.4)
13 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (156/93.7) 8f gd/fm York 11/4 10-0 0.75l 1/5 off 99 – 133.4
steadied start, raced keenly, held up in 5th, smooth headway 2f out, 2nd on bit over 1f out, produced to lead final 150 yards, cleverly
06 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (462/96.7) 8f gd/fm Sand 12/1 9-5 1.25l 2/13 off 98 – 125.0
slowly into stride, held up towards rear, headway on rails over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, hung right under pressure and went 2nd inside final furlong, kept on same pace, never able to challenge
Ran with credit in several occasions last season, but only had an early season success at Haydock to show for his efforts; has steadily improved with each outing this time round and only found Mojito (+3) too good at Sandown before winning a shade more easily than the margin at York last month; carries a 3lbs penalty, though only off a 2lbs higher mark and carries 11lbs less physical weight, but that win means he meets Mojito on the same terms, plus he’s probably drawn higher than ideal in stall 12; however, runs off 1lb lower and carries 3lbs less than when 8th in last year’s renewal, although was better drawn on that occasion.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); form run lto (20 days); down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: going; course; up 2lbs (OR); double-digit draw;
Verdict: finds it hard to actually win and while in good form will probably find one or two too good again.
Indeed 4-9-5 (103) Dr 16 (133.8)
20 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (194/94.1) 8f gd Nwmkt 3/1 10-0 1.25l 1/9 off 100 – 133.8
close up, led over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, ridden and ran on
Twice a winner in France before joining his current yard between seasons; narrowly beaten in the Newbury Spring Cup on his UK debut in April but has won twice since, the latest over 8f at Newmarket last month under the steadier of 10-0; carries a 3lbs penalty, which means he’s 4lbs ahead of the handicapper and carries 9lbs less actual weight today; would be a strong contender but for the fact he’s got a high draw to overcome.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (13 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); 3lbs penalty; double-digit draw;
Verdict: would be a strong contender without his high draw, but not entirely ignored.
Beat Le Bon 3-8-13 (104) Dr 3 (126.6)
06 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (162/93.9) 7f gd/fm Hayd 6/4 F 9-7 0.1l 1/7 off 101 – 126.6
held up in rear, headway on outside and edged left over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, led post
Made the frame in all 4 starts as a 2yo and off the mark in a 6f novice on the AW at Lingfield on his return in March; took a couple of races to find his feet in hcap company byt came good at the third attempt when taking a valuable 7f 3yo-hcap here towards the end of May; followed up by getting the better of older horses on fast ground at Haydock last month; raised 3lbs for that, but carries 8lbs less physical weight as he goes for a hat-trick of wins under today’s jockey.
Plus: class (W); going (F); course (W); form run lto (27 days); down 8lbs (wt); single-digit draw;
Minus: distance; 3lbs penalty;
Verdict: well drawn and in good form, but unproven at the trip as yet and thus not the strongest of contenders.
What’s The Story 5-9-2 (100) Dr 2 (131.2)
13 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (1245/100.0) 10.5f gd/fm York 12/1 9-4 1.75l 3/21 off 100 – 127.2
raced keenly tracking leaders, effort in centre 2f out, hanging left when switched right over 1f out, ran on in 3rd inside final furlong, not pace of winner
Useful handicapper who has been threatening to take one on these major hcaps and who has continued his improvement this year, the only disappointment coming in the Royal Hunt Cup when the sf ground was likely against him; bounced back from that on no uncertain style, however, finishing 3rd in the John Smith’s at York, having won over today’s distance there back in May; carries a couple of lbs less actual weight today, plus has one of the better draws.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (20 days); down 2lbs (wt); single-digit draw;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: well drawn and should be suited by conditions, a contender.
Game Player 4-8-11 (95) Dr 1 (118.4)
22 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (187/92.0) 8f gd Ayr 4/1 9-4 2.75l 3/11 off 95 – 116.5
mid-division, headway on inside over 2f out, soon not clear run and switched right, ran on into 3rd, never a threat
Three times a winner over 7f, including at Lingfield back in May, but not yet over 8f, although was running on at Ayr lto; carries 7lbs less actual weight today, will need to make sure he gets a clear run from stall 1.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); down 7bs (wt); low draw;
Minus: yet to win over 8f;
Verdict: improving sort, but looks a little outclassed here over 8f and not the strongest contender

With such a class field thank goodness there are some clues that can be gleaned from past renewals to help us. One of the biggest of these is that only 2 of the last 12 winners have been drawn higher than stall 8. Others points worthy of note are a previous win in Cl 2+ and at 8/9f, plus a 1 to 3 finish in 1 of the past 2 starts. Another to note is that 11/12 winners had run 3 to 6 times in the current season, although as has been seen of late some trainers are adept at producing their horses in fine fettle on less or none at all!

The most noteworthy to me though is the draw, which is one of the reasons why the likes of the Hunt Cup pair of Afak and Clon Coulis are missing from my list, as are Dark Vision and Vale Of Kent. Last year’s winner Seniority and third placed Original Choice are missing because it’s hard to include them on this year’s efforts to date.

Moving to the ones I have included, Game Player and Beat Le Bon have yet to win over 8f and this must be suspect, so they’re the first to go. Escobar is drawn 12, which is problematic, plus has something to find with Mojito on Sandown running, so also fails to make the final cut. Another that’s badly drawn, Indeed from stall 16 is hardly ideal, but could be the exception to prove the rule. However, that seems unlikely, as Mojito in stall 9 (stall 5 does not run) is in the right location, as is What’s The Story in stall 2, and those would be my idea of the first two home if low draws again predominate, with perhaps Indeed running on into third (or in fact winning if high numbers prevail).

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Re: Friday 2nd August

Postby martinkil » Sat Aug 03, 2019 10:27 am

Looks like you were a bit rash discarding the well drawn Beat Le Bon (3) - although it looked a "seat of the pants" ride

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