Ornate EW Stewards Cup outsider (if it runs)

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Ornate EW Stewards Cup outsider (if it runs)

Postby martinkil » Sat Aug 03, 2019 10:15 am

If Ornate is allowed to take his chance in the Stewards Cup today he may well be a sporting bet at a big price. He's out to 40-1 (65 BF) for this big sprint mainly due to stepping up to 6f from his usual 5f trip. But on breeding he should be able to stay 6f and earlier in his career he's been able to post group level performances at this distance. As a 3yo he finished 2nd beaten a head in a Class 2 hcap over Ascot's stiff 6f off 100, and as a 4yo he finished 2nd in the Newmarkets 6 furlong G3 Abernant Stakes off level weights behind the 116 rated Brando and was subsequently raised to a rating of 110.

Since joining his current yard he appeared to be on the downgrade dropping from 104 down to 86 over the course of 2018. He started his revival in January when partnered with apprentice P Dennis (claiming 3lb at the time). He won a couple of class 4 AW Hcaps, then a class 3 Newmarket Hcap, the class 2 Epsom Dash, and a minor Beverly conditions event propelling him from 86 back up to 103, all wins coming over 5f. Those last three victories were by Hd, neck, and a length and interestingly all three courses have undulations.

In last year's King George, Battash won by 4l in a time of 56.5, and this year he was 3 1/4l ahead of Ornate in a time of 56.2, so this years run was no substandard renewal. Taking on how the other in the race performed you would need to rate Ornate's performance on Friday as around a 110, a 7 pound improvement on his current rating, so he looks well treated off his 103 mark, at least over 5f he would.

Looking at the pace in the race Lake Volta drawn 1 is the pace low along with Hyperfocus in 2, then Justanotherbottle, 9 and Air Raid 12 will be close up, but Ornate from 15 with his 5f pace should lead the field from the getgo. Most of the higher drawn runners might be close up but rarely lead. Ornate led Epsom's 5f Dash at 33-1 from stall 2 and had to tack right across the course yet still was able to hold on.

The 6f is an obvious concern but he's priced as if he will definitely NOT stay, and his 2nd in the Abernant stakes from 2017 shows that is far from certain. Watching that race again, Ornate fell out of the stalls and could have easily unseated Moore, then showed real pace to go from last to first in the small field in a few strides. He set a strong pace and was still 3l clear after 4f, but ridden, as were his pursuers and it was only the 116 rated Brando who could bridge the gap and catch the leader who finish 2 lengths clear of the third.

Other worries are three runs with an 8 day period, but sprinters can often take quick run. Anyway I'm having an EW with Paddy Power at 40-1 – 1/5 odds the first 6 home.

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Ornate EW Stewards Cup outsider (if it runs)

Postby martinkil » Sat Aug 03, 2019 2:50 pm

Traded sub 12 for plenty so it wasn't a total disaster but went a little too fast early


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