Sat 3rd August

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Sat 3rd August

Postby Devasteve » Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:33 am

You're right Martin, I was. However, the horse had never won over 8f before and thus I had doubts. Just not picking the right ones from the list this week, so only two chances left to avoid a blank Goodwood again – always did find Ascot easier! Let’s hope I can one of the two right. By the way, apologies for any typos, but I’m afraid my eyesight is beginning to fade and I never did learn how to type properly.

Goodwood 14.25 Cl 2 Hcap 622 (100.9) 14f gd/fm – 14 Run (13 at best)

Last year – 622 (100.0) gd/fm – 13 ran
Sir Chauvelin 12/1 6-9-2 (98) Dr 7 by 0.5l from Melting Dew 9/2 4-9-1 (97) Dr 9

King’s Advice 5-9-10 (108) Dr 14
12 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (747/95.7) 14f gd/fm Nwmkt 10/1 9-4 2.5l 1/17 off 101
with leaders, led 2f out, soon ridden, kept on well
Back to winning ways in making 7/8 for Mark Johnston at Newmarket last month, his only ‘failure’ coming when 6/19 in the Northumberland Plate; was more than 3l clear of Desert Skyline (+6) at Newmarket, but while they meet on level terms today KA looks to be still improving over this trip and could well confirm that running.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (22 days);
Minus: up 7lbs (OR); up 6lbs (wt);
Verdict: looks to be still improving and a definite contender here.
Charles Kingsley 4-9-2 (100) Dr 11 (125.2)
27 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (97/88.1) 14f gd Nwmkt 2/1 9-12 1.5l 1/7 off 97 – 125.2
tracked leaders on outside, headway to lead narrowly inside final2f, ridden over 1f out, stayed on well inside final furlong
Won over 10f on his debut at Beverley last September, but has had a busier year this time round winning 3 of his 10 starts from 11f to 14f, his latest success coming at Newmarket last week; raised 3lbs for that, he faces much stiffer competition today, but will have help from Frankie in the saddle.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (7 days); down 9lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: proven at distance and on the ground, steps up in class of opposition, but a contender,
Corgi 4-9-1 (99) Dr 10 (125.9)
21 June Cl 2 Hcap (560/101.2) 12f gd Ascot 7/1 9-3 2.75l 4/19 off 99 – 125.9
close up, ridden and every chance over 1f out, no extra towards finish
Runner-up in valuable 3yo-hcap over 12f at last year’s meeting, but just the two starts this term – 3/18 over 12f at York in mid-May and then 4/19 in the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot; didn’t appear to quite get this trip in the Melrose at York last August, but maybe will now.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); course (F); form run lto; down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: 43-day break;
Verdict: question about trip, but a potential contender
Proschema 4-9-6 (104) Dr 1 (129.2)
Starting to become something of a talking horse and hasn’t found the winner’s enclosure since his first 2 starts last season, despite some fine hcap performances on occasions; his best effort this season was doubtless when 3rd in the Northumberland Plate, but weakened late on over 16.5f at Newbury on subsequent start; drop back in trip might help, but still loath to strongly support him until he wins more than a novice.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); course (F); recent outing (14 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: no hcap win
Verdict: likely to win one day, but not the strongest contender today.

Among others worthy of note are Desert Skyline after his effort behind King’s Advice last time, and Bartholomeu Dias who although mainly an AW performer does have form here and showed he’ll have no problems with the trip when 4th in the Northumberland Plate.

However, I’m going for King’s Advice to add to his tally from stable companion Charles Kingsley and Corgi.

Goodwood 15.40 Cl 2 Hcap 1540 (98.4) 6f gd/fm – 28 Run
3yo = 4lbs wfa allowance

Last year –1556 (97.2) gd/fm – 26 Run
Gifted Master 20/1 5-9-6 (111) Dr 26 by 0.05l Justanotherbottle 25/1 4-8-10 (101) Dr 7
Growl 9/1 6-8-13 (99) Dr 10 was 1.55l 3rd
George Bowen 11/1 6-9-1 (106) Dr 12 was 2.07l 5th
Gunmetal 11/1 5-8-12 (98) Dr 13 was 3.29l 11th
Open Wide 40/1 4-8-6 (92) Dr 6 was 5.04l 13th

Khaadem 3-9-6 (107) Dr 3
20 July Gr 3 Stks (340/90.2) 6f gd/sf Newb 13/2 9-2 1.75l 2/10 off 107
steadied start, held up in last pair, not clear run 2f out, headway between horses near side of group over 1f out, kept on into 2nd inside final furlong, never able to challenge
Won 2 of his 3 starts as a 2yo and completed the hat-trick when winning a listed race at Newbury in May; was never a factor in the Gr 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, however, but bounced back with a much better effort when runner-up in a Gr 3 at Newbury last month; makes hcap debut today.
Plus: class (W+); distance (W); form run lto (14 days);
Minus: going; course; up 4lbs (wt); hcap debut;
Verdict: obviously a promising sprinter, but a number of factors mean he’s a contender with questions to answer.
Flavius Titus 4-9-2 (99) Dr 11 (130.1)
08 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (129/95.5) 6f gd/fm Nwmkt 4/1 9-7 0.25l 1/12 off 95 – 130.1
always prominent, ridden over 1f out, led entering final furlong, hard pressed, held on well
Improved showing this season, beating Summerghand (+6) on his return at Newmarket in April, although 1lb change in the weights meant the roles were reversed there the following month; back in the winner’s enclosure there in early June when Spanish City (0) was 1.25l 3rd; not been seen since and runs here off a 4lbs higher mark, although carries 5lbs less physical weight; meets SC on 3lbs worse terms, but his subsequent success means he meets S on 4lbs worse terms; however, likely has improved more than that and ticks most of the boxes., plus seems to have been laid out for this.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto; down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: course; up 4lbs (OR); 56-day break;
Verdict: ticks most of the boxes and looks target for this, a contender.
Gunmetal 6-9-6 (102) Dr 24
22 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (1089/102.3) 6f gd/sf Ascot 12/1 9-5 12/1 2.87l 6/26 off 102 – 127.7
raced in far side group, chased leaders, went 2nd in group over 1f out, kept on to lead that group towards finish, no chance with leaders in centre
Runs off a 4lbs higher mark than when midfield in last year’s renewal, but went on to win the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon off 97 and is still working his mark downwards; however, served notice in the Wokingham that he may be nearing his best form again when winning the race on his side, although having no chance with those in the centre, including Summerghand (-3) who ran on to finish a nose in front of him; they’re drawn on opposite sides again today, although G has been dropped 1lb by the handicapper.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto; down 1lb (OR)
Minus: course; 42-day break; up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: may be better drawn than in the Wokingham, but perhaps has missed his chance here and not the strongest contender.
Cosmic Law 3-8-11 (98) Dr 22 (121.2)
29 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (156/90.4) 6f AW Nwcs 5/1 9-7 1.5l 2/12 off 97 – 121.2
chased leaders near side of group, pushed along halfway, soon outpaced, ridden and rallied over 1f out, went 2nd final 100 yards, no chance with winner
Winner over both 5f & 6f as a 2yo, including a Cl 2 at Epsom, though failed to stay 7f her at last season’s festival; gelded between seasons; has run well on his 3 starts this term, the latest when runner-up at Newcastle in taking on older horses for the first time.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (35 days); down 190lbs (wt);
Minus: course; up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: needs to improve, but promising first effort against older horses, a contender perhaps.
Summerghand 5-9-3 (100) Dr 6
06 July Cl 2 Stks (140/) 6f gd/fm Hayd 15/8 9-5 1.25l 3/5 off 100
chased leaders, pushed along over 2f out, not pace of front pair over 1f out, stayed on towards finish
Won 5 times last season, but mainly carrying big weights in lower class affairs; has had trouble trying to step up his game, however, and while he has run well on numerous occasions this season too, he is yet to win in Cl 2; latest effort at Haydock would seem to confirm that he lacks the ability to win at this level, that despite nosing out Gunmetal to take 5th in the Wokingham on penultimate start.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); recent outing (28 days); down 2lbbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); no class win;
Verdict: Moore booking a plus, but likely he’ll find one or two to beat him again.
Lake Volta 4-9-3 (100) Dr 1 (129.7)
27 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (934/98.2) 7f gd/sf Ascot 14/1 9-4 6.25l 8/23 off 100 – 114.2
led centre group, well on terms, ridden 2f out headed in group over1f out, faded well inside final furlong
24 May Cl 2 Hcap (156/93.1) 6f gd/fm Good 3/1 F 9-9 2.25l 1/8 off 98 – 129.7
quickly away, made all and always going well, ran on well, ridden out, unchallenged
Had another busy season (12th start), but has already won twice, including over C&D in May, and while he disappointed at Ascot last weekend, he’d previously been runner-up to Air Raid (-5) in the Scottish equivalent of this at Hamilton and meets him on 6lbs better terms here.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (7 days); down 1lb (wt);
Verdict: genuine sort but needs to rebound from last week’s effort to feature here.

Large field as always for the richest 6f sprint, which usually goes to the younger less-exposed horses. Some trends do stand out though and the last 13 winners had all previously won in at least Cl 2 and over 6f. That alone knocks out 12 in the field including such fancied horses as Justanotherbottle, Summerghand and Spanish City who are all still looking for their first Cl 2 win.

Trying to cut my shortlist down is a little easier than normal, as while Fahey’s Cosmic Law is younger than his pair of George Bowen and Growl, I can’t see any of the trio breaking his duck in the race. Summerghand and Lake Volta are another pair that I think could perhaps make the frame without winning. Although I was proved wrong by a 3yo yesterday, I have doubts about current favourite Khaadem who is making his hcap debut, not least that his form has all been shown on gd/sf or gd, plus I don’t fancy low draws in this race, among others. That leaves me with Flavius Titus and Gunmetal and with me thinking that Gun Metal may have missed his chance last year, I’m going with Flavius Tutus from Gunmetal and perhaps Summerghand, with Soldier’s Minute one at a longer price.

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