Patternform

Hi All

Rather then just put up a selection, I thought it might be more fitting as to why I think a horse might run well today!

Nottingham 4.30 I Know Her (14/1) Each-Way (Lost)
Had a wind op since his last outing and has dropped 13lbs in the weights. I believe the ease in going and drop in trip will be to his liking and is out of Epaulette who's progeny tend to prefer the softer side of good.

RD

Hi All

Gowran 6.20 Utah (25/1) E/W (LOST)
Started his career off at Aiden O'brien's yard and was highly tried below moving to J J Lamb this year. After having missed all of 2018 he seems to be coming around slowly and hinted at maybe a return to form when last of 7 in a listed race. He continues to come down the handicap and this race looks winnable and the visor is tried for the first time.

RD

Hi All

Probably setting my sights too high at the moment but still early days.

Yarmouth 6.55 Reconnaissance 6/1 (Win) (Lost)
Was well backed here last time (finished 2nd) and is now lowered by another pound in the ratings. Silvestre De Sousa booked this time and should go well again. Break of Day looks the danger after winning easily last time but that was a poor race and the low speed figure backs it up.

Good Luck!

RD

Wow this One a Day is harder then I thought!

Newmarket 5.50 Equitation 4/1 NON RUNNER
Continues to run well this season with only blip coming on soft ground at Ascot in May. Raced on the wrong side at Windsor last time but did pull clear of the rest of the other two runners on his side. James Doyle takes over today and the yard has been in good form over the past fortnight.

Good Luck!

RD

You're making it look easy it the moment. Remember at 14/1 you need one winner every 13 races to make a profit, at 25/1 you need one winner every 24 races to make a profit, at 6-1, one winner every 5 races to make a profit. You've only had three bets and at the prices it's overwhelmingly expected that you would be losing at this point. But this is not a sprint.

One promising thing is that each of your selections has has a lower SP than the price you specified (which I presume was available when you posted) especially Reconnaissance (6-1 into 7-2) which would indicate you are at least getting value which is the first step to winning. Keep it up, you appear to be on the right track.

@RD

You have put up 4 bets...For aguments sake ,Say your average will be 12.75/1 we round it down to 12/1 (allowing for a long term profit edge)

12/1 has an Implied Probability of 7.7% of winning...So we should get around 28 winners per 365 days approximately in the long run. But if we shorten or lengthen this we can look at losing run situations to keep sanity in tact -


Strike Rate....100 Bets........... 500 Bets.........1000 Bets........5000 Bets
8%...............LLR = 58.............LLR = 78....... LLR = 87......... LLR = 107


We can see from above approximations what to expect so for anyone following this with real mony your bank should be 2 times the Longest Losing Streak at the minimum as a rule of thumb.

The biggest problem with posting selections on a forum is the ego, you see it day in day out.... that most threads gain attention when the sample of bets is so small relative to average bet frequency and running massively over long term expectations people in forum land are forever making the mistake of over estimating long term actuality.....Although they are what keep forums active,So its catch 22.

My only advice while posting bets on a open forum would be - Losing runs are nomal and if anyone follows along with their own money its their duty to follow along responsibly knowing the risks involved .....This will help you concentrate on finding the right selective bets and hopefully encourage dialogue and others to join in.

I'd add that days when the weather is like today you are best to avoid,unless you really know your trainers.

Thank you Guys!

I am keeping a profit/loss and I will post it up each month. I expect a losing run as like the title states it's one a day and unlikely to go on a long winning streak. However I am aware that some members will be backing these selections and can only say to them is "tread carefully with your stakes" as you both have acknowledged. I would rather members hold off until I am showing long term profit but I need to post to get a P/L up and running. However in the event that I am not showing a profit after 60-100 days then I will stop posting on this thread as that's only fair.

Our selection today is a non-runner so I will select another.

Newmarket 6.20 Wild Thunder (11/4) LOST
Won on debut before finding before finding a Group 2 here a bit too much for him. The fact that the trainer put him in a G2 suggest he thinks a lot of him. This is obviously much easier on paper as all but 1 rival has seen the race course before. I'm hoping that his experience is enough to see off the Dubawi (Stallion) runners from the John Gosden and Charlie Appleby stables who are feared the most.

RD

Evening!

This one a day is tougher than I thought!

Doncaster 2.50 Remarkable (20/1) LOST
Switched to David O'Meara this year after missing 2018 and was formerly with John Gosden. Won a class 2 handicap for his former trainer on his last start for the yard and won off 107 but gets to run off 98 here. The easing ground should be in his favour as he wouldn't want it too fast, has form at this track and I think he's slowly coming to hand.

End of thread!

All my tips can be found on Today's Racing Pointers thread! viewtopic.php?f=6&t=4119&start=80

RD