Repeat Forecasts

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Repeat Forecasts

Postby martinkil » Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:47 pm

I'm a great one for things repeating themselves, and in that vein I'm looking at how runners who have previously finished first and second to each other and are re-opposing. I won't be betting all such occurrences but will try to be selective. Lets start with a 200 unit bank since I'll be doing reverse forecasts (and exactas) to see which gives the best returns (if any!).

5:00 Pont - Penny Pot Lane – Inexes -
Finished first and second over course and distance in a class 5 race towards the end of June. Inexes won a class 5 race LTO and Penny Pot Lane was nearest finish over CD LTO in a class 4 race.
wins Ex: £20 CSF: £21.32

 
Deauville (FR) 4:00 – Palpitator - Mille Et Mille
Finished first and second here at Deauville LTO in a listed race on GS. The fav though really should win this, but maybe Mille Et Mille will get loose on the lead.
As expected the fav won - so no joy

start bank - 200
on 4 off £21.32 - new bank £217.32

racingdemon
Posts: 184
Joined: Sun May 10, 2015 5:40 pm

Re: Repeat Forecasts

Postby racingdemon » Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:51 pm

Great Start!!!

tafflizgreg
Posts: 167
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2015 10:49 am

Re: Repeat Forecasts

Postby tafflizgreg » Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:25 pm

is there an easy way to find horses reposing each other

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Repeat Forecasts

Postby martinkil » Mon Aug 19, 2019 10:04 am

tafflizgreg wrote:is there an easy way to find horses reposing each other


For me there is - for today I'll let you have a look at my little helper -http://www.patternform.co.uk/cards/2019/aug/forecast_test.htm

tafflizgreg
Posts: 167
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2015 10:49 am

Re: Repeat Forecasts

Postby tafflizgreg » Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:52 am

wow that makes it a lot easier lol

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Repeat Forecasts

Postby martinkil » Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:18 pm

I'm tempted by some of the forecasts renewals, but I'm not confident, so I'll just have the one R/CSF

Windsor 5:30 - Ever Rock - Foxy Femme
Finished 1 2 in a class 6 5f160yds race at bath in June, and then reversed that when 1 3 in a class 5 6f hcap in July on 6lb weight difference. The weight have swung back by 10lb in Ever Rock's favour tonight after two poor runs have seen her mark drop 3lb while Foxy Femme has risen 7lb after that win. The two are priced at 9-2 (Foxy Femme ) and 25-1 Ever Rock. Foxy Femme was winning on her 5th race ever so is open to improvement hence her market position. Although actually younger then Foxy Femme, Ever Rock has had plenty of racing, but only started winning on it's 13th run (lucky for some) when the apprentice Laura Coughlan rode her for the first time. That coincided with his first encounter with Good going since his debut when a 100-1 shot. All other starts had been on the AW or GF. Since that win he's run 5 times on GF or the AW returning a formline of 89365 whereas his two runs on good and GS gave two wins. It's good (gs in places) for tonight's race so at the prices it's worth a RCSF, and I've had a little EW on Ever Rock at 25-1 (1/5 first 4 with many bookmakers) as well.

start bank = £217.32
on £2 off 0 = -£2 - New bank £215.32


There are the ones I though about but didn't make it.



Catterick 3:00 - Night Law - Deeds Not Words
These to met earlier in the month over CD in the same class, but it was unexpected at 25-1 and 16-1. Neither are that consistent and although it's possible they could repeat their run, I'm not inclined to give them a chance.

Catterick 4:30 - Bee Machine – Ghathanfar
These two finished 1 and 2 in a 10 runner Thirsk class 5 7f hcap about two months ago. They finished 3l clear of the third. Bee Machine was a well backed jt fav that day, but has been off since which is a worry, but the good new is that he's won after a break. That second was Ghathanfar's hcap debut, but he's been well beaten in two subsequent starts, that said this is a drop in grade to class 6. It's tempting, but with Kodimoor on a 4 timer having scraped home by a nk and two noses, so is only up 7lb for those 3 wins, and the consistent Macs Blessing who's formline since being gelded reads – 2312535512322, I'll give it a pass.
Or maybe an outlandish combi tricast on Bee Machine – Ghathanfar - Kodimoor and Macs Blessing (all 24 bets) could be the move!!



Lingfield (AW) 4:45 – Tarseekh - Prince Rock
Finished 2 and 2 at Chelmsford over today's 6f. My main worry here at Lingfield is that Tarseekh's formline here reads – 34770. They were mainly over 8f although that last one was over today's 6f from a wide draw where he was taken back behind, and could make a bid for the lead today, but that will use precious energy early. I'm more inclined to give - Quick Recovery – a chance (who finished a close 3rd when the other two fin 1 2) from his inside draw.

Catterick 5:00 - Cuppacoco - I'll Be Good
These two finished 1 and 3 but with less than a length between then back in June. Cuppacoco was a well fancied 6-1 shot whereas the 10yo I'll Be Good was an unconsidered 25-1. I'll Be Good has since won a 6f amateur lady race at 25-1 LTO. As tempting as the prices are I can't bet a Alan Berry trained 10yo with someone else's money let alone my own. His 48 flat runs this year have yielded 3 wins and a single place!

Bangor-on-Dee 6:40 - So Lonely - See The Sea
These two finished 1 and 2 in a maiden hurdle in April. Both have won since and top the weights today. They're joint favs, but the one I think might spoil the party is the third fav Outcrop who has put together a string of consistent runs – 2321 (last 4) in this grade.

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Repeat Forecasts

Postby martinkil » Tue Aug 20, 2019 12:37 pm

Tuesday
Yarmouth 4:55 - Simba Samba - Monarch Maid
Finished 1 and 2 here last week again on GF, and hardly any of the other have been place on the turf in the last year, let alone winning anything

R/CSF

The result was 14/1, 14-1 and 20-1 with two heads between them - my ones nowhere

Start bank = £215.32
on £2 off 0 = -£2 - New bank £213.32

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Repeat Forecasts

Postby martinkil » Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:13 pm

Wednesday's R/CSF - gone a bit mad - must be first day of York fever :)

Bath 1:45 - Red Tycoon – Jaganory
finished 1 2 in a similar race earlier this month over CD.

Carlisle 4:25 - Grenadier Guard - Navajo Pass
Fin 1 and 2 on heavy going in June

Carlisle 4:55 - Iconic Code - Remember Rocky
Finished 2 and 1 at Ayr last Oct on soft going. Now rated within a couple of pounds of those ratings have shown a return to form recently.

York 1:55 Dakota Gold - Tarboosh
York 1:55 Stone Of Destiny - Final Venture;
York 1:55 Gunmetal - Dakota Gold
All have been 1 and 2 in class 2 races in the last year or so

York 2:25 - Vitalogy – Harpocrates
An O'Brien family forecast

York 3:00 - Nayef Road - Constantinople
Finished 1 and 2 in a G3 at the start of the month. The fav could be anything but could also be just a very good handicapper.

York 3:35 - Circus Maximus - King Of Comedy
1 and 2 in the St James's Palace Stakes (Group 1) at Ascot. Steps up to 10f today

York 4:15 - Carnwennan - Rare Groove
1 and 2 in the Northumberland vase

York 4:50 - Bill Neigh - Ventura Flame
finish 1 and 2 in a Muss Novice – both have run well since – big prices

Start bank = £213.32
on £22 off 0 = -£22 - New bank £191.32

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Repeat Forecasts

Postby martinkil » Thu Aug 22, 2019 4:02 pm

Thursday rcsf

Killarney (IRE) 6:10 - Halimi -  Millswyn
1st and 2nd in a galway 3yo 12f hcap at Galway pulling clear of the field. Open to improvement against older rivals

Killarney (IRE) 6:40 -  Act In Time  -  Black Scorpion (1st and 3rd)
1st and 2nd in a similar race to this at last year meeting the pair pulling clear in a ding dong battle to the line

Start bank = £191.32
on £4 off 0 = -£4 - New bank £187.32

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Repeat Forecasts

Postby martinkil » Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:05 pm

Friday RCSF

Curragh (IRE) 6:40 - Love - Soul Search – AND - Windracer - Love

Curragh (IRE) 7:40 - Kastasa - Hayyel (1st and 3rd)

Goodwood 6:35 - Show Stealer - Open Wide

Killarney (IRE) 5:20 - Miss McIlroy - Cailean's Angel
1st and 2nd recently

Chelmsford (AW) 7:45 - Zwayyan - Breden
 Zwayyan  won this last year, and  Breden was 2nd to him at Wolves back in March

Start bank = £187.32
on £12 off 0 = -£12 - New bank £175.32


A couple of 1st and 3rd the last couple of days


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