dog eat dog

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
LoveWinners
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dog eat dog

Postby LoveWinners » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:20 pm

So sitting here looking at tomorrow's meeting at york brought back fond memories i had when i started to look at horses more seriously, Long before i bacame lazy as the simple probability midset creeped in over time. What seems a lifetime ago now,Riding a hot streak (it was a unbelievable one but like all others did come to a abrupt end) i was so dogmatic with my breakdown of bets that i wonder how that aproach bares out in the current matkets (im 99.9% sure i know the answer ;) could be wrong though)



so here would be a somewhat rudimental rehash of my old aproach to races. My goal was a simple on back then in to be the only one in the shop cheering mine on or simply calling more home than fat joe (the local taxi driver who is the greatest punter in the world or was the greatest victim of bent races when antime things went against him :roll: ) yes he was a bloody pain in the arse but a character none the less.

It would have gone something like this -

13:55 York (Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap)

Commonality (now we use the term trends, i didnt back then as i wasn't part of forums and was a bit before i read any racing publications)

over at atr looking at last 10 runs on display (no proform or horseracebase allowed) A quick shows no impact from OR 87-104 , weight 8-13 - 9-07 fav in range and would have definitely what to take a shot at this race from that alone :lol: so i would have taken out the top 4 and bottom 5 no questions asked.... (wince)

Im down to 13 from the 22 (yes rather silly)
all winners ran within 25 days - im down to ten

Then id look at the previous winners to see if there was a hint to handle atleast certain points so noted the letters of winners - 9/10 where c ,d or cd winners - im down to 3 Justanotherbottle , A Momentofmadness ,Arecibo



next id look at jockey of top 2 rpr performance and see if they were riding that day if not move to next jockey - all 3 still in
spot , any of the runners the spot horse in racing post? yes Justanotherbottle all boxes ticked , if no spot horse then back biggest price ew

thats a a banker!!! i can here myself shouting now - easy money :roll: 2pt win


Thats it, so aplying the rules to all big races how much will i get spanked? lets do york , then maybe other big meetings and few random races along the way, my guess would be -9% overall but could be way off of courseOne way to find out.

Acomb no bet, too many possibles due to low Commonality.

LOGICIAN was closest in the Voltigeur but thats a fat joe bet so no way would i back that although would be fun to see it beat - another miss.


Juddmonte nothing in what id would have considered due to failing to initially reduce enough.



16:15 Sky Bet Handicap - Melting Dew ew not a banker, but a bet. 0.5 ew


Nursery Handicap - I never back in 'monkey races' no bet ,not enough Commonality anyway

back tomorrow Pm

martinkil
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Re: dog eat dog

Postby martinkil » Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:29 am

Entertaining read LoveWinners - with the better returns on outsiders from the exchanges you would have been able to retire even earlier had they been around!!

LoveWinners
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Re: dog eat dog

Postby LoveWinners » Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:39 pm

evening boss, back then i doubt i could do much other than play that classic snake game on a p.c :lol:


so not much happened on day 1 , applying the same theory and application on day 2 -

nothing in the first 4 races but a few close calls with Liberty Beach (fails on price), Show Me Show Me (weight,only 1lb but that would have been enough to put me off as a fav back then) , had the Clipper Logistics Handicap down to 6 but none were spot horses , enable (fails on price),


Search For A Song 2pt win (jockey not riding at meeting so this would have been a little bet) & Hameem (weight/age..had that not been an issue this would have been the bet)

And nothing in the last as Whitefountainfairy (jockey)


i would have been looking forward friday/saturday as tomorrow would have been boring but for one i would have been shouting for.

LoveWinners
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Re: dog eat dog

Postby LoveWinners » Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:09 pm

A winner and place at a price so far,What will tomorrow bring?

Sky Bet Handicap
Caradoc 0.5ew this was close to a 2pt bet but fails/none positive on one thing that would have dampened my enthusiasm.

Lonsdale Cup Stakes
Dee Ex Bee 2pts win

Gimcrack Stakes = nothing

Nunthorpe Stakes
Battaash 2pt win being a bigger price than TS.

Maiden Stakes = nothing

Nationwide Accident Repair Services Handicap= nothing


So looks like id be lacing up my betting boots ready to take him on with the added bonus of knowing he'd be on the fav's (who can blame him?) in 2 of the 3 races.

LoveWinners
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Re: dog eat dog

Postby LoveWinners » Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:15 pm

321...well backed trio 5/2>7/4 ,9/2>3/1,9/1>4/1.

Done tomorrows york card already - shall check other meetings later and post if anything pops up?

nothing in the first Wissahickon was spot/jock but wouldn't have lined up with commonality back then.

Melrose Handicap
Land Of Oz 0.5 ew just misses the perfect banker type but a bet here 9/1 would have been acceptable

Sky Bet City Of York Stakes/Ebor Handicap/ Julia Graves Roses Stakes/ Sky Bet Handicap and Sky Bet Apprentice Handicap = nothing

racingdemon
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Re: dog eat dog

Postby racingdemon » Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:36 pm

I used to back horses this way when I used to buy the weekender. I would sit down at break time in work each day and work out the days bets using their 10 year trends.

Battaash was amazing today and I had some money on him at 9/4.

GOOD LUCK for tomorrow!

LoveWinners
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Re: dog eat dog

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:30 pm

Thanks RD, just a little nostalgia and a simple selective way to take a shot at some of the big meetings. So far 6 bets with 4 being profitable and 5 finishing in a top 3 finish but that cant last can it? dont think calculating the profit adds any value as back then finding a price was a secondary concern too finding a bet.

Tomorrow flags up 2 bets at goodwood but neither would be bankers back then.

Goodwood Amateur Riders' Handicap
Espresso Freddo 0.5 ew

Weatherbys Racing Bank Supreme Stakes
Suedois 0.5 ew (had no fear of backing ew anything over 3/1 on none banker bets)

LoveWinners
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Re: dog eat dog

Postby LoveWinners » Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:51 pm

a winner and close 4th :roll:

1 none bankers again tomorrow @ripon


430 Fayez 0.5ew

LoveWinners
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Re: dog eat dog

Postby LoveWinners » Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:09 pm

WELL it wasnt to be today with the slow start but did hit the frame for a tiny drop....Back next weekend will make this a quick note post and edit it here alnog the way

2pt
Justanotherbottle Up
Search For A Song 2pt win won 3/1
Battaash 2pt win won 15/8 , as big as 5/2 ep
Dee Ex Bee 2pts win up, well btn 2L 2nd

1pt
Melting Dew 0.5 ew placed 16/1 (available 22/1 ep)
Caradoc 0.5ew 3rd 4/1 (9/1 ep)
Land Of Oz 0.5 ew 3rd 5/1, (9/1 ep)
Espresso Freddo 0.5 ew up
Suedois 0.5 ew won 5/1
Fayez 0.5ew 3rd 7/2

LoveWinners
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Re: dog eat dog

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:10 pm

been busy as had p.c issues but i can atleast put these up

there are 4 bankers but 2 are odds on and thinking back id either miss them in singles or play in a multi and keep outlay down...

Sandown 2pt treble 300 Jubiloso , 335 Positive , 445 Eligible

Beverley 350 Bowson Fred 2pts


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