Monday 26th August

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Monday 26th August

Postby Devasteve » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:04 pm

As feared, Saturday was a disaster and while the Ebor winner was certainly backable, I was perhaps overly seduced by the claims of those higher drawn. I’ve always liked Ripon, both as a town and a racecourse, so let’s hope my luck’s in with the Ripon Rowels today.

Ripon 16.30 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (90.1) 8f gd – 9 Run (8 at best)
3yo = 6lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 156 (90.8) gd/sf – 9 ran
Borderforce 22/1 5-9-2 (92) Dr 3 by 0.1l from Gurkha Friend 9/2 6-9-5 (92) Dr 4
Mikmak 3/1 F 5-9-1 (88) Dr 1 was 2.1l 6th

Fayez 5-9-12 (100) Dr 3 (137.2)
30 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (467/97.4) 10f gd Good 25/1 8-12 0.5l 1/16 off 95 – 131.3
held up in rear, headway over 1f out, soon chasing leaders, led well inside final furlong, ran on
Was winning for the fourth time this season when scoring at the Goodwood festival; had previously finished a close 3/10 over 12f here under 9-12, so can carry the weight; not sure about the drop back in trip though as his best effort at 8f is a rather distant 3/14 here back in April; raised 5lbs for his latest success and carries a stone more physical weight dropped in class of opposition; missed York Saturday to run in this.
Plus: class (W); distance (F?); course (W); form run lto (27 days);
Minus: going (?);up 5lbs (OR); up 14lbs (wt); back in trip (?);
Verdict: in good form but has risen 13lbs this season and they might go a little quick for him over this trip, so not the strongest contender.
Ibraz 4-9-5 (93) Dr 6 (130.1)
10 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (129/92.7) 7f gd/fm Nwmkt 9/2 9-2 0.25l 2/6 off 90 – 130.1
dwelt and bumped start, soon tracking leader and keen, led over 1f out, ridden and strongly pressed inside final furlong, soon headed and kept on
Twice a winner in a truncated season last year, not running after mid-July; however, hasn’t hit the mark this time round, although a more promising effort over 7f at Newmarket lto; raised 3lbs both in OR and physical weight, but shouldn’t be beyond his potential as a 4yo.
Plus: going (F); form run lto (16 days);
Minus: class; distance (?); course (?); up 3lbs (wt); up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: improving with every run this year and should be a contender today.
Alfred Richardson 5-9-1 (89) Dr 5 (130.8)
03 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (194/84.5) 8f gd/sf Thir 20/1 9-9 2l 4/15 off 89 – 125.6
mid-division, driven and headway 2f out, soon switched inside, ridden and kept on inside final furlong, not quite reach leaders
20 Jul Cl 4 Hcap (63/80.9) 8f gd Rip 16/1 10-0 0.25l 1/7 off 85 – 130.8
always close up on inside, pushed along 2f out, hard ridden to lead well inside final furlong, edged left, ran on
Improved towards the end of last season winning his last 2 starts over 8f on the AW at Newcastle; didn’t look as if he wanted to know when L/10 over 7f at Musselburgh back in April and not seen then until taking a Cl 4 over C&D here towards the end of last month; upped 4lbs for that ran better than expected when returned to Cl 3 at Thirsk finishing 0.25l behind of Mikmak (-7); up in class again today, but could be still improving.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (23 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: lightly raced this year and could be running into form, a contender
Mikmak 6-8-13 (87) Dr 2 (124.5)
10 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (162/82.6) 8f hv Hayd 8/1 9-6 0.25l 1/13 off 82 – 124.5
held up towards rear, headway over 2f out, led inside final furlong, kept on well
03 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (194/84.5) 8f gd/sf Thir9/2 9-2 1.75l 3/15 off 82 – 119.1
always prominent, joined leader over 2f out, ridden to lead narrowly 1f out, headed inside final 100 yards, kept on same pace
Runs off 1lb higher mark than when a disappointing favourite in last year’s renewal, but there’s no denying the good form he’s currently in; raised 5lbs for his latest Haydock win, but carries 7lbs less physical weight going up in class; however, may struggle to confirm previous running with Alfred Richardson who is 5lbs better off for the nk that divided them at Thirsk at the start of the month; another who was withdrawn at York to run here, but wouldn’t want the ground to firm too much.
Plus: class (); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (16 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: up 5lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: in good form, but not the strongest of contenders perhaps.
Helovaplan 5-8-12 (86) Dr 1
22 Jul Cl 4 Hcap (66/82.2) 7.5f gd/fm Bev 20/1 9-11 0.25l 2/9 off 85 – 128.6
tracked leaders, ridden to lead inside final furlong, headed towards finish
Won on the AW at Newcastle in February, but disappointed on his return to turf at Redcar in early April; off the course then until running better than expected over the extended 7f at Beverley last month; raised 1lb for that, although carries 13lbs less physical weight going up 2 classes.
Plus: distance (W); form run lto (35 days); down 13lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going; course; up 1lb (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: capable on his day, but at lower level and not a strong contender here.

The past stat that stands out to me is that none of the last 10 renewals has gone to a horse drawn higher than stall 6, and we’ve had as many as 19 runners in that time. That would rule out Ulshaw Bridge, Raselasad and Rousayan, while I’m not that taken with the claims of the 3yo Irreverent. Of those that are left, Helovaplan has shown all his form at lower level, while top weight Fayez is better over further and may find one or two of these too speedy for him over this trip. Of the remaining trio, it’s hard to argue against the likely favourite Ibraz, although I fancy Alfred Richardson to reverse Thirsk running with Mikmak, especially if the ground dries any. So for me it’s Ibraz from Alfred Richardson and Mikmak. Late review shows a N/R (of course!), plus the going has changed from gd/sf to gd – probably gd/fm by race time! Still, never change your mind they say, so I’ll leave them as written, although now it looks as if Alfred Richardson to at least make the frame looks the better value.

racingdemon
Posts: 184
Joined: Sun May 10, 2015 5:40 pm

Re: Monday 26th August

Postby racingdemon » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:49 pm

Good shout on Ibraz and was well backed!!

RD


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