Satturday 31st August

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Satturday 31st August

Postby Devasteve » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:44 am

At least I made up for Saturday at Ripon on Monday. Whether it keeps on going like that I rather doubt, as the horrible ‘w’ word caused all sort of time constraints and everything is a bit rushed. Still, fingers crossed that we might get lucky!

Chester 14.10 Cl 2 Hcap 280 (91.1) 7.5f gd – 15 Run (14 at best)
3yo = 6lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 280 (97.0) gd – 12 ran
Oh This Is Us 11/2 5-9-10 (108) Dr 9 by 0.75l from Lualiwa 11/1 4-8-9 (93) Dr 4
Lake Volta 4/1 F 3-8-12 (101) Dr 2 was 1.25l 3rd
Arcanada 14/1 5-8-12 (96) Dr 7 was 17.55l L of 12

Oh This Is Us 6-9-10 (105) Dr 6 (133.4)
24 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (467/96.0) 7f gd Good 8/1 9-7 2.12 l 9/12 off 105 – 133.4
towards rear, headway on inside 2f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong
Last year’s winner off a 3lbs higher mark but largely pursues his career in listed company nowadays and was runner-up over 7f here in mid-July; probably best not to place too much reliance on his effort at Goodwood last weekend as he was never in a position to make a challenge; however, is 1lb worse off with Lake Volta who finished in front of him.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (7 days);
Minus: up 3lbs (wt);
Verdict: consistent performer and a contender to perhaps complete the double.
Lake Volta 4-9-1 (96) Dr 5 (137.0)
24 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (467/96.0) 7f gd Good 6/1 8-13 2.1l 8/12 off 97 – 125.4
tracked leader, ridden and lost 2nd entering final furlong, weakening when slightly hampered towards finish
Has had a busy season again but thrives on racing and won twice earlier in the season over 6f and 7f; has run largely with credit of late in major hcaps and wasn’t beaten far at Goodwood last weekend, just a nose ahead of Oh This Is Us (+8) and meets him on 1lb better terms today; runs off a 5lbs lower mark than when 1.25l 3rd to Oh This Is Us (+12) in last year’s renewal as a 3yo; thus no surprise were he to go close this year.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); course (F); recent outing (7 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: busy season but a definite contender.
Arcanada 6-8-5 (86) Dr 1 (129.2)
11 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (72/86.8) 8f gd Wind 6/1 9-8 0.25l 2/5 off 86 – 129.2
edged left most of way, led, quickened 3f out, ridden over 1f out, joined and battled on gamely final furlong, headed final stride
Better performer on AW, though won a Cl 4 at Haydock in June and only denied late on over 8f at Windsor lto; runs off the same mark here and the drop in trip suit; twice a winner here, but that was early in his career and recent efforts nothing to write home about - was last in last year’s renewal off a 10lbs higher mark and 9/10 over C&D in late May; not the most consistent, but is drawn in stall 1.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (20 days); down 17lbs (wt); down in trip;
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: better on AW and recent form here suggests he’s mot the strongest contender.
Humble Gratitude 4-8-6 (87) Dr 11 (126.5)
16 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (97/84.6) 8f gd/sf Nwmkt 5/1 9-7 0.5l 1/5 off 83 – 126.5
steadied start, held up last, headway in centre 2f out, ridden chasing leaders over 1f out, hung left inside final furlong, ran on under pressure to lead close home
Off the mark for his new stable when winning a Cl 3 over C&D here at the start of the month and then went on to set a career best when beating 4 rivals at Newmarket a fortnight back; raised 4lbs for that and up to Cl 2 again, although carries 15lbs less actual weight; stall 11 not ideal, although a pair of 3yos did win from there earlier in the decade,
Plus: going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (15 days); down 15lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up 4lbs (OR); up in class; high draw (?);
Verdict: will be 6th start here from his 9 this year and has a lot to do to complete his hat-trick in higher class and is thus not the strongest contender.

The one distance at Chester where a low draw is not vital, but Humble Gratitude still hasn’t got the easiest of tasks coming out of stall 11. However, I still prefer his chances to those of Arcanada who just doesn’t seem to have the ability to win at this level, although he does run off a 1lbs lower mark this year. Penwortham won the 2017 renewal off 1lb lower mark, plus won over 7f here at the end of June; however, he has something to find on his latest running when 4/10 to Humble Gratitude here despite his being eased 1lb. The betting would seem to suggest that Oh This Is Us is nailed on to complete the double, but at present prices I would think Lake Volta may offer more value as I can’t see him not making the frame and he could well win. So for me it’s Lake Volta from Oh This Is Us with possibly Humble Gratitude running into the frame.

Sandown 14.25 Cl 2 Hcap 280 (92.3) 10f gd/fm – 9 Run
3yo = 7lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 311 (94.1) gd/sf – 12 ran
Dubai Horizon 7/1 4-9-7 (100) Dr 3 by 0.5l from Mountain Angel 7/1 4-9-2 (92) Dr 8

Country 3-8-6 (93) Dr 1 (122.0)
10 Aug Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (78/82.3) 10f gd Red 6/4 F 9-6 0.5l 1/5 off 88 – 122.0
held up, headway over 3f out, led 2f out, stayed on well
Unraced as 2yo, the Dubawi gelding completed his hat-trick on his hcap debut at Recar earlier in the month; the ease with which he did plus the fact that the 2nd and 4th have both come out and won since suggests that the 5lbs rise may be lenient.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (21 days); down 14lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 5lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: fast-improving 3yo who must be considered a contender.
Migration 3-8-7 (94) Dr 6 (125.4)
08 Aug Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (93/84.7) 10f gd Sand 7/2 9-7 1.5 1/7 off 88 – 125.4
steadied and switched right start, held up in rear, headway on outside 2f out, ridden to lead and hung right from over 1f out, stayed on well
Improving form early season winning over 8f at Newmarket in mid-May, but limitations exposed in the Britannia at Royal Ascot and initially when raised to this trip at the Newmarket July meeting; however, proved he stays the trip by winning over C&D here when dropped in trip earlier in the month; raised 6lbs for that but could well be more to come.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (23 days); down 14lbs (wt);
Minus: up 6lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: C&D suit and not without chances, a contender.
Mordin 5-9-10 (104) Dr 4 (138.7)
03 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (124/94.2) 10f gd/sf Donc 5/1 10-0 2.1l 3/12 off 104 – 138.7
held up in touch, improved over 2f out, every chance over 1f out, ridden and not quicken well inside final furlong
Useful sort and won at Haydock on his return in late April, but with the Diomed Stks, Hunt Cup and John Smith’s on his agenda since has had some stiff tasks; seen to better advantage at Doncaster early month and with promising claimer aboard (25% winners in August) he could well be in the mix.
Plus: class (W): going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (28 days); down 11lbs (wt);
Verdict: Not without a chance with his rider’s claim dropping him to his lowest de facto mark of the season, a contender.

Race in which we have a trio of promising 3yos, of which Country and Migration look more likely than Solid Stone. However, I can’t write off the chances of Mordin who with his rider’s 7lbs claim will carry the same physical weight as he did when winning at Haydock back in April. So my suggestion would be Country from Mordin and Migration.

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