Brighton 5.00

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Brighton 5.00

Postby martinkil » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:08 am

Brighton 5:00 - Brother In Arms – 8-1
Has been campaigned mainly over 5f to 7f before this season (one race over a mile), until May of this year. He had four races at Brighton, 3 over a mile, then one back at 7f. I've watched all those races, and all this fellow does is stay. He gets outpaced mid-race as they come down the hill and is under the pump for the final 3 furlongs, and as the other runner tire he passes them, and makes ground on the eventual winner. In his last start at Brighton he was dropped back to 7f. Last of a field of 15 at halfway and under the pump. Still last 2f out, and had passed two at the furlong pole, he stayed on but was crowded and switched for the last half furlong where he went past 5 runners in the last 100y to take 5th.

Up two furlongs LTO (9f) in an amateur race at Goodwood. In a 9 runner field was held up and with 2f to go was being ridden (as were all the field) in 6th about 4l off the leader (under 2l covered the first 5). By the furlong pole he had closed into 4th about 2.5l behind the leader, and stayed on relentlessly over the final furlong to lead close home, the leading pair having pulled three lengths clear of the third.

Today he races over 10f for the first time returning to Brighton. There's every chance that against these more middle distance type runners he won't be quite as far behind at the 2f pole and he'll be able to stay on past these up the Brighton hill as he's only 2 pound higher than for his Goodwood win.

There are two lightly raced 3yo's who both ran well at Brighton LTO, but on balance they may need to drop a few pounds to get their heads in front on their current form. The most likely runner to chase him home is the Favoutite Luna Magic who Brother In Arms beat narrowly at Goodwood LTO, and over this further furlong will be hard pressed to turn the form around even with a 2lb turnaround.

The one who might surprise is Brother In Arms stablemate Windsorlot. He finished 2nd in this race last year (run on the Monday) off a rating of 62. The winner pulled 5l clear, but is currently rated 15lb higher now so he ran into one that day. Windsorlot is now rated just 45 and is again ridden by Miss S L Bowen (3) (who rode Brother In Arms to his win). He wasn't disgraced LTO at Yarmouth and anything like a return to last years form would give him place chances. I also notice that Windsorlot has been back in from 20-1 into 10-1.

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