Saturday 7th September

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 7th September

Postby Devasteve » Sat Sep 07, 2019 11:49 am

I’ve had better days would sum up last Saturday, so let’s hope thing go a little better today!

Ascot 14.45 Cl 2 Hcap 498 (96.6) 7f gd/fm – 17 Run (16 at best)
3yo = 4lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 498 (95.8) gd/fm – 20 ran
Ripp Orf 7/1 4-8-6 (93) Dr 14 by 0.5l from Cape Byron 9/2 F 4-9-3 (101) Dr 2
Spanish City 9/1 5-8-9 (93) Dr 12 was 0.77l 4th

Ripp Orf 5-8-8 (94) Dr 15 (128.9)
17 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (124/89.7) 7f sf Newb 4/1 9-10 0.1l 2/7 off 92 – 128.9
steadied start, held up in rear, headway far side of group over 2fout, soon chasing leaders, ridden and went 2nd inside final furlong, stayed on well towards finish, just held
Had a career last season winning 4 times including the Victoria Cup and last year’s renewal here off 1lb lower mark and under today’s jockey; things haven’t gone as well this time round though and still looking to get off the mark for the year, although to be honest he’s only encountered his favoured fast ground once when in close 6/17 to Vale Of Kent in the Bunbury; however, had managed to lower his mark from 98 to 92 when only just denied at Newbury 3 weeks ago when dropped to a Cl 3; raised a couple of lbs for that but also carries 16lbs less in physical weight going back up in class.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days); down 16lbs (wt);
Minus: up 2lbs (OR); up in class:
Verdict: proven C&D performer off only 1lb higher than when taking last year’s renewal and has to be somewhere thereabouts.
Spanish City 6-8-11 (97) Dr 3 (131.9)
25 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (98/90.5) 7f fm Yarm 7/4 9-12 0.75l 1/4 off 95 – 131.9
held up, pushed along and headway on stands rail over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ridden and ran on
Broke double-digit losing run when dropped to Cl 3 at Yarmouth lto, although had run with credit in a number of higher class hcaps as when 4/17 to Vale Of Kent in the Bunbury; raised just 2lbs for Yarmouth but will actually carry 22lbs less physical weight when one includes the 7lbs his promising rider’s claim; runs off a 4lbs higher mark than when 4th to Ripp Orf (-3) in last year’s renewal; fitted with first-time cheekpieces, but not sure he’s drawn on the ‘right side’; still has to be considered I guess.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (13 days); down 22lbs (wt);
Minus: up in class; 2lbs more (OR); yet to win above Cl 3;
Verdict: in form, but yet to win at this level, plus questions about the low draw.
Tabarrack 6-9-10 (110) Dr 9 (134.9)
24 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (467/96.0) 7f gd Good 13/2 9-10 0.25l 2/12 off 108 – 134.9
held up in mid-division, looking for room over 2f out, squeezed through and ran on inside final furlong, went 2nd final 50 yards, not reach winner
Campaigned mainly in stks races and has won 4 times in listed company, but has generally run with credit on the few occasions he’s dipped into hcap class as at Goodwood lto when runner-up to Salute The Soldier (-10); raised 2lbs for that but meets the winner on 1lb better terms; his rider has won on him last September before she’d ridden out her claim.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (14 days);
Minus: up 2lbs;
Verdict: worry he may be too high in the weights, but a possible contender for the frame
Salute The Soldier 4-9-1 (101) Dr 2 (130.0)
24 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (467/96.0) 7f gd Good 5/1 9-0 0.25l 1/12 off 98 – 125.4
chased leaders, pushed along towards outside 2f out, ridden to challenge over 1f out, went 2nd entering final furlong, ran on to lead final 125 yards
Fine strike rate on the AW (3/5) but was gaining his first turf success when just out-powering Tabarrack (+10) at Goodwood lto; had previously been narrowly defeated in a Cl 3 over the same C&D; raised 3lbs for that success and carries 1lb more physical weight, plus is 1lb worse off with Tabarrack; however, has a low draw and those drawn low have not fared that well of late.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (14 days);
Minus: course (?); up 3lbs (OR); up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: improving sort and showed he can win on turf at Goodwood lto, but mightn’t have as much good fortune from stall 2 today.
Escobar 5-9-4 (104) Dr 12 (137.1)
24 Aug Gr 3 Stks (567/) 9f gd/fm York 8/1 9-5 2.25l 5/6 off 104
slowly into stride, held up in rear, ridden and effort 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong
02 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (934/106.0) 8f gd/fm Good 10/1 9-3 2l 3/20 off 101 – 129.2
steadied start, held up towards rear, headway chasing leaders 2f out, ridden and went 3rd inside final furlong, not quite pace to challenge
Won first 2 starts over 7f as a 2yo when with Palmer but since moving to the O’Meara yard he has largely been campaigned over 8f; runner-up to Sharja Bridge off 102 in the Balmoral here last October but took a while to get going this term, not making the frame until runner-up in the Coral Challenge at Sandown when coming back from a break in early July; followed up by carrying 10-0 to victory at York and then 3rd in the Golden Mile at Goodwood under a 3lbs penalty; has since not been disgraced when a close 5/6 to higher rated horses in a Gr 3 at York; not sure about the drop back in trip and maybe this is merely a prep for another crack at the Balmoral next month.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (14 days); down in class; down 1lb;
Minus:
Verdict: question over trip, but has been in good form of late and not entirely ignored.

Maybe more competitive than when Ripp Orf took last year’s renewal. Of others towards the front of the betting, I’d have to pass on Arbalet for whom first-time blinkers will have to bring seismic improvement on what he’s shown so far this year. However, there has been a 3yo winner and neither Fanaar nor Pogo can be discounted providing the drop back to 7f isn’t a problem; I have less faith in Ventura Ocean though.

The draw can often be problematic at Ascot and currently those drawn low seem to be at a disadvantage over 7f, which raises questions for the chances of Salute The Sailor and Spanish City, That leaves me with last year’s winner, Ripp Orf, Escobar and Tabarrack to consider. Tricky to pick but I’ll go for Escobar from Tabarrack with Rip Orff somewhere thereabouts.

Haydock 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap 647 (93.0) 14f sf – 17 Run (16 at best)

Last year – 388 (93.0) hv – 8 ran
Reshoun 6/1 4-8-11 (90) Dr 7 by 3.25l from Never Surrender 12/1 4-8-3 (82) Dr 3
Clever Cookie 8/1 10-9-7 (100) Dr 6 was 6.53l 5th

Corelli 4-9-10 (102) Dr 2 (139.6)
23 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (436/96.2) 12f gd/fm York 6/1 9-5 0.1l 2/16 off 100 – 134.1
held up in mid-division, smooth headway between horses over 2fout, went 2nd inside final furlong, soon every chance, just held
Promising lightly-raced gelding who has gone close the last twice over 12f, beaten 0.05l at Newmarket and 0.1l at York; raised a further 2lbs for his latest effort and while he has yet to try this trip it was only from 2f out that he weakened in the 22f Queen Alexandra Stks at Royal Ascot; won a Cl 3 novice on sf as a 3yo, so should handle the conditions, although he does have to give weight to the field.
Plus: class (F); going (W); form run lto (15 days);
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up 2lbs (OR); up 5lbs (wt);
Verdict: Obviously more to come but a lot of weight to carry under these questions, nevertheless, a contender
Reshoun 5-9-1 (93) Dr 13 (125.6)
10 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (295/93.4) 12f gd Ascot 10/1 9-7 6.25l 8/10 off 95 – 125.6
slowly into stride, held up towards rear, ridden over 2f out, never near leader
Won last year’s renewal in similar conditions, but has hardly gone on from there and after his effort over 12f at the Shergar meeting at Ascot has managed to get his mark down to just 3lbs more than last year, could well be targeted at this again.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (28 days); down 2lbs (OR); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: this season’s form;
Verdict: respected as last season’s winner, but hardly the strongest contender.
Alright Sunshine 4-9-1 (93) Dr 15 (129.2)
9 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (124/85.5) 14f sf Muss 11/10 F 9-4 1.25l 1/6 off 88 – 122.5
chased leaders, keen early, went 2nd over 3f out, led over 2f out, hung left to stands side rail, ridden and stayed on well
Looks as if he could be a useful recruit having won 3 of 4 bumpers and 3 of 5 on the flat, not being beaten by more than 0.5l in the other 2; comfortable enough win on Cl 3 debut on sf ground at Musselburgh last month, for which he’s been raised 5lbs; up in class again, but could be a lot more to come yet and may still be ahead of the handicapper.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (29 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 5lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: has done everything asked of him so far and a contender proven in the conditions
Garbanzo 5-8-12 (90) Dr 1 (120.8)
7 Aug Cl 4 Hcap (65/79.3) 12f AW Kemp 13/2 9-6 0.25l 1/9 off 84 – 118.3
mid-division, driven and headway on outside over 2f out, ridden to lead narrowly over 1f out, stayed on when hard pressed throughout final furlong, found extra towards finish
Won a Cl 4 over C&D here in similar conditions at last year’s meeting, which was the culmination of a hat-trick of victories; had a couple of spins over hurdles with the Newland yard over the winter, but after a lengthy break won over 12f on his flat return at Kempton last month; raised 6lbs for that but likely to come on more than that for the run; not overly excited by stall 1, but has time to sort it out.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (31 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up 8lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: suited by C&D and conditions, so a potential contender.

Never an easy race to sort and this year’s no different. However, I don’t see Keshoun doing the double, so I’m down to three right away. Garbanso might prove a danger, but I’m more inclined to go for Alright Sunshine from Corelli.

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