Thursday 12th September

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Thursday 12th September

Postby Devasteve » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:21 pm

Saturday was another disaster, and I’m hugely disappointed with the size of the fields for the handicaps at Doncaster this week, even the Mallard tomorrow doesn’t have enough runners to make it a betting race. Let’s hope there are no non-runners in the only race I could salvage from today, not that it offers any betting opportunities!

Doncaster 16.55 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (96.0) 10f gd/fm – 8 Run
3yos = 6lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 156 (96.0) gd – 10 ran
Another Eclipse 11/2 4-8-10 (92) Dr 1by 0.75l from Finniston Farm 8/1 3-8-8 (95) Dr 7

Davydenko 3-9-7 (98) Dr 1 (123.2)
10 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (129/96.2) 8f gd/fm Nwmkt 5/1 8-13 3.5l 1/6 off 90 – 125.2
tracked leader, led and hung left inside final furlong, soon clear, eased towards finish
Weakened in final furlong on only start as a 2yo over 8f at Salisbury last September, but won first 2 starts as a 3yo in novice events at Windsor and Thirsk in May/June; disappointed in the Britannia at Royal Ascot, however, finishing down the field; bounced back at Newmarket last month though, never really being pushed when gaining an easy victory; raised 8lbs for that and will carry 8lbs more physical weight as well, but the bigger question will likely be whether he can stay this new trip; Ryan Moore replaces Louis Steward who has ridden the colt in each of his 3 wins to date.
Plus: class (W); going (W); form run lto (33 days);
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up 8lbs (OR); up 8lbs (wt);
Verdict: up in trip but wasn’t stopping at Newmarket and looks a strong contender
Good Birthday 3-9-7 (98) Dr 3 (128.2)
31 Aug Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (324/95.2) 10f gd Bev 11/4 9-0 0.5l 1/6 off 95 – 125.2
slowly into stride, held up in touch, headway over 2f out, squeezed through to challenge 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on
Won the last of 3 starts as a 2yo, over 8f at Newbury; returned to win over C&D here carrying 9-6 on opening day and has acquitted himself well enough since save for finding 12f beyond him at Royal Ascot; has been raised 3lbs for latest success over this trip at Beverley lto, plus carries 7lbs more physical weight as he takes on older horses for the first time.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (12 days);
Minus: up 3lbs (OR); up 7lbs (wt); takes on older horses for first time;
Verdict: clearly suited by C&D and ran well enough on fast ground at Newmarket on penultimate start, a contender despite needing a career best.
Nicholas T 7-9-11 (96) Dr 4 (125.7)
10 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (295/97.0) 8d gd Ascot 15/2 9-9 2.75l 4/10 off 96 – 130.8
slowly into stride, in rear, pushed along over 2f out, headway on inside over 1f out, ridden to take 4th well inside final furlong, not reach leaders
28 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (94/86.7) 10f sf Ayr 11/1 9-12 0.25l 1/9 off 93 – 128.7
held up in mid-division on inside, switched left and headway towards outside 2f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, stayed on to lead towards finish
Looked like his winning days were over but broke a 25-race losing run at Ayr in July and had added two further wins and a runner-up spot there before the month was out, including off a career high winning mark; has since run with credit in the annual Ascot carnival and will appreciate going back up in trip; however, 4 wins in a season plus a second new career high winning mark is asking a lot.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (33 days); up in trip;
Minus: up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: looks like this is his trip, but asking a lot to win again off this mark and perhaps not the strongest contender for the win.
Desert Wind 4-9-13 (98) Dr 6 (122.4)
12 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (747/95.7) 14f gd/fm Nwmkt 10/1 9-110.75l 11/17 off 98 – 130.8
held up mid-division, one pace from over 1f out, never dangerous
05 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (93/90.4) 12f AW Kemp 9/2 Jt F 9-7 1.75l 1/12 off 93 – 127.4
towards rear, good headway 2f out, led over 1f out, driven out final furlong, ran on well
Yet to make the frame in 5 starts on turf, all 4 of his wins coming in the AW, the latest at Kempton in June; on balance, looks like the AW may be his preferred surface.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); down in trip;
Minus: course (?); up 12lbs (wt); 62-day break;
Verdict: hard to see as strong contender back on turf.
Certain Lad 3-9-7 (98) Dr 8 (124.5)
25 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (137/93.5) 10f fm Yarm 10/1 9-7 3.5l 4/6 off 98 –125.2
pulled hard, chased leader, pushed along and every chance 2f out, ridden and one pace final furlong
05 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (104/85.5) 8f gd/fm Hayd 7/2 F 9-11 0.5l 1/8 off 96 – 126.5
always prominent, led over 1f out, stayed on, driven out
Won first 2 starts as a 2yo over 6f and 7f, but didn’t get back to the winner’s enclosure until back at Haydock in July when taking a Cl 3 hcap under 9-11; subsequently down the field over 7f at Galway and not a lot of improvement when 4/6 at Yarmouth when trying this trip for the first time; runs off the same mark and weight today against marginally classier opposition.
Plus: class (F); going (W); form run lto (18 days);
Minus: distance; course (?);
Verdict: had to be dropped to Cl 3 to win at Haydock and gave no real indication that this trip suits at Yarmouth lto, so not the strongest contender.

I can’t really see any plus points for the likes of Leroy Leroy, First Sitting or Waarif, so I passed on them. From the shortlist, it’s hard to make a case for Desert Wind on turf, especially on this season’s efforts, while I have a question or two about the chances of Certain Lad. I can make a case for the remaining trio though, even if it is asking a lot of Nicholas T to win again this season, especially off a career high mark. So this looks likely to be a duel between the 3yo pair and according to the market, they’ve already got Davydenko home and hosed. Well he did look good at Newmarket last month and shouldn’t be far away providing he gets the trip. We know the C&D will prove no problem for Good Birthday, but is he at the same level as Davydenko? Well, if you take out the run over 12f at Royal Ascot, it’s hard to fault his consistency. With the forecast prices below my minimums, it’s not a race of any real interest to me, but if prices allow I‘d go for Good Birthday with Davydenko as the saver. Don’t know whether to be happy or sad that the market apparently sees it much the same way – too short for me!

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