Saturday 28th September

[Devasteve]

Old habits yesterday, right horses, wrong order – I should get so lucky today!!

Newmarket 15.40 Cl 2 Hcap 996 (94.4) 9f gd – 35 Run (30 at best)
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 996 (100.3) gd/fm – 33 ran
Wissahickon 11/1 3-9-5 (107) Dr 21 by 3.75l from Mordin 16/1 4-8-12 (95) Dr 25
Afaak 25/1 4-9-7 (104) Dr 6 was 32.27l 25th

Lord North 3-8-10 (98) Dr 29 (101.1)
08 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (187/98.4) 8f gd/fm Ascot 9/4 F 9-2 0.5l 2/7 off 98 – 101.1
tracked leaders on rail, switched right over 2f out, led 1f out, ridden and hung left inside final furlong, headed and not pace of winner final 100 yards
Won on debut at Redcar as a 2yo last October and again on his return at Newcastle in April; gelded after finishing L/8 at Sandown at the end of May and put in a decent effort on his return over 8f at Ascot, perhaps suggesting that a step up in trip wouldn’t hurt.
Plus: class (F); form run lto (22 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: going; distance (?); course (?);
Verdict: largely unexposed, but what we’ve seen suggests he ‘s a contender
Good Birthday 3-8-10 (98) Dr 32 (95.8)
31 Aug Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (324/95.2) 10f gd Bev 11/4 9-0 0.5l 1/6 off 95 – 95.8
slowly into stride, held up in touch, headway over 2f out, squeezed through to challenge 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on
Won Newbury novice on final of 3 starts as a 2yo and won a Cl 3 3yo-hcap over 10f at Doncaster on opening day; has run credibly enough since with the exception of the 12f King George V at Royal Ascot where he finished in midfield on the sf ground; however, didn’t run the straightest behind Korcho (-5), Majestic Dawn (-7) and Dark Vision (+13) when 5/14 to Walkinthesand over 10f here on fast ground in mid-July; has since won well enough at Beverley at the end of August, for which he has been raised 3lbs; however, is taking on older horses for the first time and not sure how the drop in trip will suit from his outside draw.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (28 days); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: up 3lbs (OR); debut against older horses;
Verdict: will get the trip, but this tougher than Beverley from his wide draw, nevertheless, a contender.
Le Don De Vie 3-8-13 (101) Dr 33 (95.4)
25 Aug Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (249/93.8) 10f gd Good 2/1 F 9-7 0.5l 1/4 off 96 – 95.4
tracked leaders on inside, switched left 2f out, went 2nd over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, led towards finish
Confirmed his promise as a 2yo in winning his first 2 starts as a 3yo over 8.5f and 10f at Epsom when with Balding; made a fine debut for Morrison by finishing 4/13 over 12f at Goodwood at the end of July only weakening in the final furlong; was back on the winning trail over 10f there towards the end of last month, although it was only a 4-horse race; has been raised 5lbs for that and one suspects there is much more to come.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (3 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: fast improving sort and likely more to come; but outside draw a bit of a worry, nevertheless, a contender.
Bedouin’s Story 4-9-4 (101) Dr 12 (100.3) N/R
12 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (129/95.1) 8f AW Chelm 9/2 9-11 0.75 2/8 off 101 – 100.3
held up in rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on and held towards finish
Just the single start as a 2yo, over 7f here in late October; ran 7 times as 3yo winning 3 times over 7f at Salisbury, Thirsk and Newbury; showed promise without winning in 4 starts at Meydan in January/February, but has largely been kept to the AW since his return to these shores, although did win a Cl 3 over 7f at York on penultimate outing in first-time cheekpieces; raised 7lbs for that was not disgraced when runner-up over 8f at Chelmsford lto; runs off the same mark today; main question is whether he’ll get this new trip.
Plus: class (F); going (F); course (F); form run lto (16 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: distance (?);
Verdict: question about trip, but could be a contender if lower-middle to the fore.
Another of these big field monsters to try and solve, which means I have to revert to past trends to try and cut the field down to more manageable proportions. Aged 3-6yo with 4 to 8 current season starts and having already won or been placed in Cl 2 doesn’t really throw many out. However, at least 1 win this season, a previous win over 9f or 10f, and in a field of at least 13 runners, with which 10 of the last 12 winners complied does remove several possible contenders.

In the meantime, I see that one of my shortlist is a non-runner (same thing happened yesterday!). So that means I’m down to a trio of 3yos all drawn high. If time was available, I’d perhaps add Jazeel and Korcho to the list. However, looking at my trio and Good Birthday is the only one that complies with the past trends, so is preferred to Lord North and Le Don De Vie, neither of which do.

Newmarket 17.25 Cl 2 Hcap 129 (93.8) 7f gd – 12 Run
3yo = 3lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 129 (92.9) gd/fm – 12 ran
Muntadab 12/1 6-9-2 (97) Dr 12 by 2.25l from Gilmagesh 8/1 4-9-7 (97) Dr 4
Spanish City 5/1 4-9-4 (94) Dr 7 was 3.6l 6th

Dubai Legacy 3-9-6 (97) Dr 12 (98.4)
06 Sept Cl 2 Hcap (187/98.4) 8f gd/fm Ascot 4/1 9-2 2.75l 3/7 off 98 – 98.4
went right start, pressed leader, led 2f out, ridden and headed 1f out, lost 2nd inside final furlong, soon carried left, kept on same pace
Won 2 of 3 starts as a 2yo and won on return at Newcastle in early May; disappointed at Royal Ascot and gelded thereafter; third in both starts since and likely to appreciate the drop in trip.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); form run lto (22 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: going (?); course; up 4lbs (wt);
Verdict: looks to be back on track and a contender.
Riviera Nights 3-9-2 (93) Dr 1 (74.7)
06 Sept Cl 4 3yo-hcap (67/81.5) 7f gd/fm Ascot 13/2 9-9 1.5l 1/10 off 87 – 74.7
held up towards rear, pushed along and good headway near side of group chasing leaders well over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on well
Won last 2 starts as a 2yo over 7f and 8f; returned at Kempton in April but then a pair of disappointing efforts after which he had wind surgery; returned to winner’s enclosure at Ascot earlier in the month, for which he is up 6lbs; now up 2 classes though.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (22 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: course; up 6lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: returned to form with breathing operation, but this tougher as a contender.
Vitralite 3-9-7 (98) Dr 7 (92.0)
23 Aug Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (436/92.3) 8f gd/fm York 11/1 8-12 0.25l 2/16 off 94 – 92.0
led, ridden over 1f out, stayed on gamely, headed towards finish
Unraced at 2yo but won first 2 starts this year and after Haydock disappointment bounced back to finish runner-up on hcap debut at York last month; now takes on older horses.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (36 days);
Minus: course; up 4lbs (OR); up 9lbs (wt); debut against older horses;
Verdict: looks promising contender, but this tougher test.

Very quick look at this and I’m going for Dubai Legacy from Vitralite and Riviera Nights.