Friday 11th October

[Devasteve]

The less said about last Saturday the better, but maybe a change of luck at York today – let’s hope so!

York 14.40 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (91.8) 8f gd/sf – 16 Run (15 at best)

Last year – 197 (92.8) gd – 16 ran

Just Hiss 9/1 6-8-7 (86) Dr 5 by 1.5l from Waarif 14/1 5-9-4 (100) Dr 11
Mikmak 12/1 508-8 (87) Dr 3 was 2.75l 3rd
Gulf Of Poets 23/1 6-9-6 (98) Dr 4 was 4.1l 6th

Firmament 7-9-4 (97) Dr 12 (107.2)
28 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (129/93.8) 7f gd Nwmkt 12/1 9-10 1.3l 6/12 off 98 – 97.2
in rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on one pace final furlong
Has won for almost 3 year when scoring over 7f in similar conditions here back in mid-June and has in general run better than the price since; decent effort when not beaten far at Newmarket last month and interestingly is Tudhope’s choice from 5 O’Meara entries on a course where he usually runs well.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (13 days); down 6lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus:
Verdict: usually runs well here and only 4lbs higher than when winning here in June, a contender.
Waarif 6-9-4 (97) Dr 15 (106.6)
21 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (187/91.7) 8f gd Ayr 11/2 9-6 0.5l 1/10 off 95 – 94.9
tracked leaders, challenged over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final 2f, stayed on well under pressure inside final furlong, edged right and held on towards finish
Consistent performer for the stable winning 4 times last season and 3 time this, the best perhaps being at Windsor in late June off 96; back in the winner’s enclosure at Ayr last month where he battled on well to get the measure of Kynren; with the runner-up franking that form in the valuable 7f hcap at Ascot last weekend, the 2lbs in the weights looks generous, plus he’s off a 3lbs lower mark than when runner-up in last year’s renewal carrying 3lbs more actual weight.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (20 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: form runs tend to come in clusters and having won at Ayr lto, it would be no surprise if he were to go one better than last year; a strong contender.
Mikmak 6-8-7 (86) Dr 5 (100.8)
11 Sep Cl 3 Hcap (97/85.5) 8f gd/sf Carl 5/1 9-6 6.9l 6/8 off 86 – 66.8
towards rear, headway over 2f out, kept on and no impression
10 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (162/82.6) 8f hv Hayd 8/1 9-6 0.25l 1/13 off 82 –72.8
held up towards rear, headway over 2f out, led inside final furlong, kept on well
Carries 1lb less than when 3rd in last year’s renewal and did win a Cl 3 at Haydock on hv back in August off a 4lbs lower mark; has hardly impressed in 2 subsequent starts, however, and steps back up in class again today.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (30 days); down 13lbs (wt);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: not the most consistent of horses and no evidence to suggest he can improve on last year’s effort, not the strongest contender.
Alemaratalyoum 5-9-4 (97) Dr 3 (101.8)
25 Sep Cl 2 Cl Hcap (189/85.6) 8f hv Good 5/2 F 9-4 4l 1/9 off 90 – 93.8
held up in mid-division, headway going well over 2f out, pushed into lead over 1f out, clear inside final furlong, stayed on
Career best effort when taking a claiming hcap at Goodwood lto on his first step up to 8f; however, that was on hv ground as was his previous win at Haydock last October; has been raised 7lbs for that and this far stiffer competition
Plus: class (W); distance (W); form run lto (16 days);
Minus: going; course (?); up 7lbs (OR);
Verdict: proved he stays the trip at Goodwood lto; but handicapper has had his say and would seem to need substantial rain to make him a strong contender.
Hortzadar 4-9-1 (94) Dr 16 (97.6)
30 Aug Hcap (590/90.9) 8f gd Curr 20/1 9-4 5.6l 12/25 off 96 – 84.6
tracked leaders, 5th halfway, ridden and no impression over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong, weakened
17 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (95/84.0) 8f sf Rip 2/1 10-0 0.5l 1/8 off 91 – 83.2
held up in touch, pushed along over 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, ran on
Has won 3 if his 8 starts this term, the latest a Cl 3 at Ripon off 91 in mid-August when Doncha (-5) was runner-up; subsequently not disgraced off a 5lbs higher mark in a better hcap at the Curragh at the end of August; has since been dropped a couple of lbs but yet to prove he can win at this level.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (42 days); down 2lbs (OR); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?);
Verdict: Ripon win suggests he may handle the ground, but yet to prove himself at this level and not the strongest contender.
Donncha 8-8-8 (87) Dr 1 (97.3)
17 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (95/84.0) 8f sf Rip 10/1 9-9 0.5l 2/8 off 86 – 77.3
held up, pushed along and headway 2f out, soon ridden, ran on to take 2nd well inside final furlong, not reach winner
It’s been well over 4 years since his last win but the mark has finally slid to a more workable level; I’ve ignored his last outing at Kempton where he was slowly away and never featured, but based on his runner-up effort to Hortzadar at Ripon in August, the pairf could be closer today.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (18 days); down 14lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: last win (20/06/15); drawn 1
Verdict: must surely win again one day and not without place chances here, although a bit of a reach to consider him a winning contender.

The first thing that comes to mind is that in contributing 5 of the 16 entries, O’Meara is rather keen to win this! The question is, which one? Not Humbert or Young Fire methinks, plus I think it would be quite a step up for Hortzadar too. On a line through Hortzadar, that means Donncha is also unlikely to be the winner. Another I’m going to give a miss is Alemaratalyoum who seems to need the most demanding of conditions – now watch York get hit by a deluge! So that leaves me with the O’Meara pair of Firmament and Waarif, plus last year’s third who just sneaks in, Mikmak. I doubt I’m being very original, but I’ll go for Waarif from Firmament and Mikmak, with perhaps Donncha as one to take a run at the frame.