Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Chep 4.30

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
martinkil
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Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Chep 4.30

Postby martinkil » Sat Oct 12, 2019 10:34 am

Chep 4.30 - Garo De Juilley – 40/1 (1/5 odds first 5 bookies) EW
I'm probably way off here since my initial shortlist for this race were Coolanly/Ballyandy/Garo De Juilley/Man Of Plenty – which just happens to include three of the four top weights – on going which is likely to ride on the heavy side of soft – I must be mad!!
But when I saw the price of last year's winner Garo De Juilley I had to go back and double check the form. OK – at these odds your selection is going to have a few questions to answer so lets lay them out first.
His last two runs have been disappointing. His last start he was a second on his chasing debut, but on ratings (hurdles) he really should have beaten the winner (has won since), but it was his first start over fences, and he was returning from a 162 day break so may improve for the run. In his previous run to that he finished down the field at Cheltenham in a race where Coolanly finished 5th. here he was held up in what appeared to be a slowly run race for Cheltenham (a blanket covered the field coming down the hill).

So now the positives. He won this race last year when also unconsidered (25/1). He acts on an easy surface - he won flat handicaps on heavy and soft going in France, and arguably ran his best race when beaten 12 lengths in last years Long Wall Grade 1 at Ascot on soft going. He wasn't disgraced in his other 2 races since winning this last year, beaten 5l in a 31k race at Haydock and 10l at Taunton (2m) both good going. He's no good thing, but there is enough encouragement to think that in the current market he could be a wee bit over priced.

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