Saturday 19th October

[Devasteve]

A surprising, but very pleasing way to end the season at York last Saturday. I’m saying nothing about the other race, which went horribly wrong. Let’s hope we have some more ‘York luck’ again this week!

Catterick 15.25 Cl 2 Hcap 218 (90.3) 5f sf – 14 Run

Last year – 218 (90.9) sf – 14 ran
Foolaad 14/1 7-9-2 (93) Dr 4 by 0.25l from Captain Colby 7/2 F 6-9-2 (96) Dr 7
Duke Of Firenze 14/1 9-8-11 (88) Dr 3 was 1.5l 5th

Hyperfocus 5-9-6 (97) Dr 5 (108.1)
12 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (622/97.0) 6f York 16/1 8-13 0.25l 2/22 off 94 – 100.1
with leader, led over 2f out, soon strongly challenged, all out when headed towards finish
Perhaps a little unfortunate last weekend at York to be hunted down by Gulliver in the final strides over 6f in what was a career best effort; for his new yard having moved over from Hugo Palmer between seasons; runs off a 3lbs higher mark here, but major worry is that while the ground will definitely suit, has only run over 5f once since his 2yo days, plus all his success has been in lower class.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F?); form run lto (7 days);
Minus: course (?); up 3lbs (OR); up 7lbs (wt);
Verdict: career best when perhaps unlucky to get mugged at York last weekend, but not sure the drop back in trip will necessarily help; still a possible contender.
Arecibo 4-9-11 (102) Dr 14 (107.2)
05 Oct List Stks (255/) 5f sf Ascot 12/1 9-0 1.5l 2/11 off 100
towards rear, steady headway 2f out, ran on inside final furlong, went 2nd near finish, no chance with winner
14 Sept Cl 2 Hcap (374/97.2) 5.5f gd/fm Donc 33/1 9-4 1l 4/22 off 100 – 104.2
chased leader, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, not quicken towards finish
French import between seasons, won a Cl 3 over 5f at Ayr in early July carrying the steadier of 10-3; has generally run with credit since being outside the top 4 only in the Stewards’ Cup and Ayr Cold Cup; best was probably in the Portland in first-time blinkers when a close 4th to 3yo Oxted (0) off 100; interestingly, have reverted to a visor since; not disgraced when runner-up to Dakota Gold (+3) in listed company at Ascot lto, which looks on a par with effort when beaten 0.75l by the same opponent at York in August off 3lbs better terms; has shown liking for the ground when runner-up to Maygold over 5f at Haydock in early September with She Can Boogie (-11) 0.5l further back in 3rd; has been raised 2lbs for latest effort, but this doesn’t look as stiff as most recent engagements.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (14 days); down in class;
Minus: course (?); up 11lbs (wt); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: looks a promising recruit to the O’Meara yard, though may prove to be just between a handicapper and a top-class sprinter; nevertheless, a contender today.
Count D’Orsay 3-9-0 (91) Dr 3 (100.0)
11 Oct Cl 3 Hcap (124/87.3) 5f sf York 20/1 9-5 2l 2/22 off 89 – 86.0
held up towards rear, headway near side of group over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, went 2nd inside final furlong, no chance with winner
Irish mdn winner for O’Brien who joined current yard mid-season, winning a Cl 5 over 5f on gd/sf at Ripon on his debut in early August; then ran down the field in a Cl 2 apprentice hcap on fast ground at York when Moss Gill (+1) was runner-up , but bounced back when dropped to Cl 4 just being denied by Four Wheel Drive (+3) over 5f on gd at Thirsk before again being successful at Ripon where he beat Broken Spear (-1) by 1.75l on gd/sf; career best at York lto when runner-up to Moss Gill (+1) in a Cl 3, although no chance with winner inside final furlong; raised 2lbs for that, but meets the winner on 6lbs better terms today; another of those improving 3yos up in class!
Plus: going (F); distance (W); form run lto (8 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course (?); up 2lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: improving 3yo and should be closer to Moss Gill today, so a possible contender.
Moss Gill 3-9-7 (98) Dr 11 (94.0)
11 Oct Cl 3 Hcap (124/87.3) 5f sf York 7/2 9-6 2l 1/22 off 90 – 87.0
chased leaders, switched right going well 2f out, went 2nd over 1f out, ridden to lead approaching final furlong, edged left and quickened clear, ran on well
Just the single start as a 2yo, has come into his own this season not being out of the first 2 in any of his 8 starts, winning 3 of the last 5; career best at York last weekend when getting the better of Count D’Orsay (-1); runs off an 8lbs higher mark today and meets the runner-up on 7lbs worse terms, but one suspects there’s more to come from this rapidly improving 3yo who is now 24lbs higher than he started the year.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (8 days);
Minus: course (?); up 8lbs (OR); up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: rapidly improving 3yo sprinter who must be considered a contender based on last weekend’s York effort.

Although we have a decade of past stats I’m not sure they’re that useful other than don’t go looking for long-priced winners – Foolaad, last year, was the only winner to start at double digit odds and only the second 7yo to win, the rest having been aged 3-5yo. As expected for a sprint, a recent run is a must, all having had a least one outing in the past 6 weeks. The last 8 renewals have been run on sf or hv ground, with 3 winners having been drawn 1-6 and 5 drawn 9-15, so you can pick the bones out of that as with a slight LH dogleg you’d expect am advantage for those drawn low.

Others that were initially considered and then discarded include Makinah and Wrenthorpe, as well as Teruntum Star and the frustrating Dark Shot who hasn’t won since 2016 when with Balding. So that left me with the quartet, from which I’ll reluctantly discard Hyperfocus who perhaps needs 5.5f to be seen at best! Arecibo is the class horse and should make the frame, but for the win I’m going for the pair of rapidly improving 3yos Moss Gill and Count D’Orsay. Strictly on the weights, Count D’Orsay looks favoured to reverse last week’s York running, but I think Moss Gill possibly had more in hand. So I’m going from Moss Gill from Count D’Orsay with Arecibo and Hyperfocus taking the minor placings.

Ascot 16.40 Cl 2 Hcap 1556 (101.9) 8f hv – 21 Run (20 at best)
3yo = 3lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 1556 (103.4) sf – 20 ran
Sharja Bridge 8/1 4-9-5 (105) Dr 8 by 0.75l from Escobar 33/1 4-9-2 (102) Dr 15
Kynren 6/1 4-8-13 (99) Dr 18 was 2l 5th
Mitchum Swagger 11/1 6-9-4 (104) Dr 2 was 4.35l 8th
Waarif 25/1 5-8-11 (100) Dr 10 was 4.85l 9th
Flaming Spear 14/1 6-9-10 (110) Dr 22 was 6.85l 11th
Circus Couture 33/1 6-9-7 (107) Dr 21 was 22.65l 19th

Clon Coulis 5-9-0 (99) Dr 1 (113.8)
27 Sep List Stks (227/) 8/1 9-2 8.3l 10/13 off 101
dwelt towards rear, effort over 1f out, weakened final furlong
19 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (1089/102.8) 8f sf 16/1 8-13 0.02l 2/22 off 99 – 99.8
held up well in rear near side, good headway chasing leaders when not clear run and switched right inside final 2f, went 2nd inside final furlong, strong challenge close home, just failed
Rather in-and-out season, as after winning on the AW at Chelmsford in early March. She was down the field at Lingfield the following month; off then until the Hunt Cup over C&D here, she almost landed a gamble only going down by a nose off 99 on sf; has not exactly set the world on fire since, but the mark is back to 99; drawn 18 in Hunt Cup, but stall 1 today;.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (22 days); down 2lbs (OR); down 2lbs (wt); down in class; won on sf;
Minus: going (?);
Verdict: conditions similar to Hunt Cup (save the draw!) and a likely contender on that running.
Escobar 5-9-6 (105) Dr 21 (105.0)
05 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (1120/99.4) 7f sf Ascot 14/1 9-6 2.75l 3/17 off 105 – 94.5
held up towards rear, headway between horses 2f out, kept on inside final furlong, went never nearer 3rd towards finish
Runs off a 3lbs higher mark and carries 4lbs more than when runner-up in last year’s renewal, but has been in good form since winning over 8f at York in mid-July; good efforts in hcaps over the straight 7f here the last twice; the latest when 3rd to Kynren (-4) at the start of the month; has a 6lbs pull in the weights, but that might not be enough to reverse the form.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (14 days);
Minus: going (?);
Verdict: not sure about the ground, although does have C&D form on sf, thus is a contender again this year.
Kynren 5-9-8 (107) Dr 19 (104.5)
05 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (1120/99.4) 7f sf Ascot 11/4 F 9-2 0.5l 1/17 off 101 – 98.5
chased leaders near side of group, went 2nd 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, ran on
Has run well in big field hcaps over both 7f and 8f all season and deserved is success over 7f here a fortnight ago; carries a 6lbs penalty for that as well as 6lbs more physical weight, which means he carries 9lbs more off an 8lbs higher mark than when 5th in last year’s renewal; that might be a bit too much, although the ground should suit.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (14 days); won on sf;
Minus: going (?); 6lbs penalty; up 6lbs (wt);
Verdict: in good form, but having won a fortnight back this might be a step too far and not the strongest contender.
Coolagh Forest 3-9-0 (102) Dr 14 (101.0)
12 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (187/100.9) 10f sf York 7/2 8-6 1l 1/7 off 96 – 95.0
tracked leader, led over 2f out, stayed on strongly
Twice a winner at Musselburgh in the spring, but after a break took a while to regain his form only returning to the winner’s enclosure over the extended 10f at York the last twice; carries a 6lbs penalty for last weekend’s win and drops back in trip, though did win over 8f in the spring and today’s trip will be testing!
Plus: class (W); distance (W); form run lto (7 days); won on sf
Minus: going (?); course (?); 6lbs penalty; up 8lbs (wt); down in trip;
Verdict: not sure this trip now suits, but conditions may demand stamina and a possible contender.
Lord North 3-9-8 (110) Dr 20 (96.6)
28 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (996/95.0) 9f gd Nwmkt 9/2 F 8-10 0.75l 1/30 off 98 – 91.1
held up stand side, headway and switched left over 2f out, chased clear leader approaching final furlong, ridden to lead inside final furlong, readily
Highly progressive 3yo collecting hcaps while preparing for rise to group level; justified favouritism in the Cambridgeshire last month and likely could have won by more; has been raised a monstrous 12lbs for that and carries 12lbs more physical weight as well; that’s a lot to ask of a 3yo especially in such demanding conditions, but it’s hard not to consider his chances.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (21 days); won on sf;
Minus: going (?); up 12lbs (OR); up 12lbs (wt);
Verdict: extraordinary improver and a possible contender.
Kick On 3-9-6 (108) Dr 2
15 Aug Gr 3 Stks (413/) 8f gd/sf Salis 9/1 8-10 0.02l 1/6 off 107
sweating, chased leaders on outside, went 2nd over 3f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, just held on, all out
Won 1 of 3 starts as a 2yo and won a 9f listed stks on gd/fm at Newmarket on mid-April return; followed up by finishing a creditable 7th in the 2000 Guineas, but found 10f beyond him both in France and in the Hampton Court Stks at Royal Ascot; off then till mid-August when taking a Gr 3 over 8f on gd/sf at Salisbury; makes hcap debut today off 1lb higher mark and on ground heavier than he’s experienced before.
Plus: Class (W+); distance (W); form run lto; down in class;
Minus: going (?); course; up 1lb (OR); up 10lbs (wt); hcap debut; 65-day break;
Verdict: no hcap form to tie to, plus worries about today’s ground temper support as contender on hcap debut.
Amedeo Modigliani 4-8-13 (98) Dr 12
01 Oct List Stks (266/) 8.5f sf Cork 8/1 9-7 2l 4/13 off 98
dwelt slightly, soon settled mid-division, progress in 6th 2f out, not clear run 1 1/2f out, ridden to press leaders 1f out, not clear run150 yards out, no impression in 4th close home
Facile winner of 8.5f Galway mdn as a 2yo, which saw him make winter favourite for the 2018 Derby; didn’t run last year, but what the Galway form was worth is questionable as his 4 opponents that day are still to win! AM has made 3 starts this season in listed class, with his latest at Cork perhaps his best as not for the first time he found trouble in running; trainer obviously reason for his exalted market position here.
Plus: class (F+); distance (W); form run lto (18 days); down in class; down 8lbs (wt); won on sf;
Minus: going (?); course (?); debut;
Verdict: no form to back market position and a contender on trainer’s name only.

Just the 5 renewals and they’ve all gone to 4yo or 5yo running off a mark of 96 to 105 with a run in the last 3 weeks. Moreover, they’ve all been drawn on the low side (1 to 10). Some of those are likely to be shattered today, no doubt. Among those considered that didn’t make the final shortlist were Biometric, Commander Cole, plus Mitchum Swagger and Glen Shiel who are coming from races on hv.

To start with the tricky ones first, both Amedeo Modigliani and Kick On are both making their hcap debuts and big-name trainers are to the fore in the market. Either could win, and well done to the respective trainer should they do so. However, I can find little to tie them to the rest of the field and while I would prefer Kick On, I’m passing on both.

I’m also passing on Coolagh Forest who despite being well enough drawn in the centre might not quite be at this class level. Kynren has had a good season, but having gained his deserved win 3 weeks ago looks to have been weighted out of it by the handicapper and while he’ll handle the ground, maybe not the new mark. I suppose one could say the same about Lord North and if he has not been left in to hold the weights for Kick On, he could well have more to show us before going on to be a useful group horse. As such he has to make my final trio. Joining him is Escobar, 3rd to Kynren here 3 weeks ago and runner-up in last year’s renewal, and who may prove it’s his turn to take a well deserved success. The other one is a bit of a reach, but based on here running in the Hunt Cup over C&D here in June you can’t leave Clon Coulis out of the equation. In what order this trio may finish is the conundrum, but I’m going for Clon Coulis from Lord North and Escobar. Let’s hope one at least makes the frame and Frankie isn’t the pacemaker for Kick On!

[Racefan81]

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