Friday 25th October

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Friday 25th October

Postby Devasteve » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:19 pm

Case of right horses, wrong order last Saturday but overall can’t help but be delighted with the way things worked out, as I’ve long since accepted the unlikelihood of picking the winner with just a single selection. Let’s hope things continue in the same vein, because in all honesty any one of half a dozen could win today’s race!

Doncaster 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap 124 (91.0) 6f gd/sf – 14 Run
3yo = 1lb wfa allowance

Last year – 124 (91.9) gd/sf – 14 ran
Ice Lord 12/1 6-9-1 (92) Dr 8 by 0.25l from Von Blucher 10/1 5-8-12 (89) Dr 6
Dalton 9/1 4-8-7 (84) Dr 1 was 1l 4th

Lahore 5-9-8 (97) Dr 3 (104.0)
12 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (622/97.0) 6f sf York 12/1 9-2 2l 5/22 off 97 – 98.0
held up, headway over 1f out, chased leaders inside final furlong,never a threat
Won first 3 starts for Varian as a 3yo, including over 5f and 7f here, but showed nothing in 2 starts with Cox last season; back to hcap ranks with current yard and won a Cl 3 on gd/sf at Ripon in August off 90; has hinted at more to come since, at Thirsk in late August and at York earlier in the month; not entirely sure low drawn horses are favoured here, but not without a chance.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (13 days);
Minus: up 6lbs (wt); draw (?);
Verdict: relatively lightly-raced for his age and hints of possibly more to come make him a contender.
Diamond Dougal 4-9-1 (90) Dr 9 (102.0)
28 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (156/91.9) 6f gd/sf Ripon 12/1 8-10 2.25l 1/9 off 84 – 84.9
held up mid-division, pushed along and headway over 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, ran on well
Capable enough on gd or softer and set a new career best when winning off 89 on his return at Windsor in April; fair efforts thereafter though burdened by marks in the 90s and only returned to the winning enclosure off 84 at Ripon lto sporting a first-time visor and beating Gunmetal (+14) handily enough; raised 6lbs for that and may again find life harder off this sort of mark, plus failed over 5f at this meeting last year.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (27 days);
Minus: course; up 6lbs (OR); up 5lbs (wt);
Verdict: ground should suit but may find it hard off new mark and not the strongest contender.
Golden Apollo 5-9-4 (93) Dr 13 (99.4)
21 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (374/90.7) 6f gd Ayr 12/1 9-4 0.25l 1/24 off 88 – 87.7
in touch, driven to chase leaders over 2f out, ridden and headway over 1f out, soon challenged, stayed on to lead inside final 100 yards, pushed out
Useful sprinter as a 3yo counting a success at Ascot off 95 among his trio of wins; however, runner-up at York off 97 was best effort last season; had struggled again this season before getting it all together to take the Silver Cup at Ayr off 88 by a nk from Gabrial The Saint (+1); raised 5lbs for that, he carries the same physical weight today, although a couple of lbs worse off with GTS; still not out if it on his earlier form though and conditions should suit.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (34 days);
Minus: up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: back to form and not without a chance on best form, a contender.
Gunmetal 6-9-8 (97) Dr 10 (99.3)
12 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (622/97.0) 6f sf York 25/1 9-3 15l 14/22 off 98 – 66.5
chased leaders, lost place over 2f out
28 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (156/91.9) 6f gd/sf Ripon 9/2 9-10 2.25l 2/9 off 98 – 93.3
chased leading pair, led 2f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, one pace
Excellent first season coming over from the Hills yard last year winning 3 of his 6 starts, which saw his mark rise 16lbs to 104; has struggled much of this, although has been competing at the highest hcap level; his mark has begun to slide, however, and was runner-up to Diamond Dougal (-14) at Ripon last month; drawn in the wrong place at York lto, so that can be ignored; mark now back to last winning level, so not entirely without hope despite top weight.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent outing (13 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course; up 5lbs (wt);
Verdict: easier than recent tasks, but still a tough ask in this season’s form and not the strongest contender for the win perhaps.
Gabrial The Saint 4-9-3 (92) Dr 11 (99.1)
18 Oct Cl 3 Hcap (78/88.0) 6f AW Wolv 9/1 9-5 0.6l 3/8 off 92 – 87.5
chased leaders, led over 1f out, kept on and headed towards finish
21 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (374/90.7) 6f gd Ayr 20/1 9-5 0.25l 2/24 off 89 – 88.1
with leaders, led inside final 2f, ridden inside final furlong, headed inside final 100 yards, kept on
Twice a winner early in his 3yo career but struggled off higher marks in the 90s thereafter and it was not until the end of June this year that he revisited the winner’s enclosure at Chester off 87; again struggled off the 90s but was runner-up at Chester again off 87 in mid-September off 89 before improving again off 89 when runner-up to Golden Apollo (-1) in the Ayr Silver Cup; raised back into the 90s he has since been run out of it late on at Wolverhampton last weekend, maybe the fitting of a hood today will eke out a little more concentration.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (7 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up in class;
Verdict: in best form of late but yet to win off this sort of mark and maybe not the strongest contender.
Pendleton 3-8-13 (89) Dr 6 (94.4)
05 Oct Cl 3 Hcap (129/86.4) 5f sf Ascot 6/18-12 0.25l 1/17 off 85 – 80.4
chased leaders, ridden to lead over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, held on gamely, all out
Has been admirably consistent and gained just reward in a Cl 3 over 5f at Ascot earlier in the month; has won over 6f though, and was not disgraced previously in Cl 2 at Ayr in only attempt at this level; raised 4lbs for his success, which seems fair enough for an improving 3yo.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (20 days);
Minus: course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up 1lb (wt); up in class; up in trip;
Verdict: improving 3yo, but up in class facing toughest opposition to date and while he looks best if the 3yos, perhaps not the strongest contender.
Bielsa 4-9-4 (93) Dr 1 (92.9)
14 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (374/97.2) 5.5f gd/fm Donc 7/2 8-11 7.8l 15/22 off 93 – 77.9
in touch, ridden halfway, weakened final furlong
30 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (1219/86.9) 6f gd/sf Thir 9/2 9-3 0.1l 1/16 off 87 – 82.9
tracked leaders, led over 1f out, pressed inside final furlong, ran on (hand time)
Lightly-raced gelding who was unraced as 2yo and won his only 3yo start over 6f at Redcar last October; won over C&D here on his return in May and then took a Cl 3 on gd/sf at Thirsk on his hcap debut in August; disappointed upped to this level over the extended 5f here last month and has had another break since; obviously capable on his day but seems to need a break between races.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (41 days);
Minus: class; down 7lbs (wt);
Verdict: seems to need time between races and yet to prove himself capable at this level, so not the strongest contender perhaps.

Plenty of contenders here, perhaps not surprising considering only 2 of the last 10 winners have started at less than 12/1! Others that I looked at besides my extended list were Alaadel and last year’s 4th Dalton, but they only made the discard pile. Joining them are Bielsa. the 3yo Pendleton, Diamond Dougal and hence Gunmetal. Of the remaining trio, while I worry about stall 3 for Lahore I feel he might just edge Golden Apollo who again should hold off Gabrial The Saint.

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