Saturday 2nd November

[Devasteve]

A very pleasing welcome to the NH season at Cheltenham last Saturday, which shows it’s better to be lucky than good. I wonder if the look has hung around for this week!

Ascot 14.10 Listed Hcap Chase 342 (140.5) 17f gd/sf – 13 Run (12 at best)

Last season – 246 (141.2) gd – 5 ran
Vosne Romanee 13/2 7-11-12 (149) by 1.24l from Champagne At Tara 9/2 9-11-7 (144)

Speredek 8-11-12 (150) (158.2)
Useful front-running chaser who was runner-up to Caid Du Lin (-12) over C&D here in similar conditions last November off 151on his return, but whose form took a downturn thereafter and ended the season back over hurdles at Sandown; starts this season off 1lb lower mark and stable among the winners.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); down 4lbs (OR)
Minus: class (?); 238-day break; return to chase; up 12lbs (wt)
Verdict: chance on last November’s effort her and a contender
Caid Du Lin 7-11-8 (146) (152.5)
12 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (203/144.1) 19.5f sf Chep 14/1 10-10 2.75l 2/10 off 145 – 146.5
mid-division, steady headway approaching 3 out, 2nd next, kept on same pace run-in, no chance with winner
Twice a winner over fences last season including over C&D here and made promising return at Chepstow last month; raised 1lb for that, but likely gained far more than that in fitness levels.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: class (?); up 1lb (OR); up 12lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: useful young chaser and likely to come on for return, a contender.
Capeland 7-11-5 (143) (141.8)
21 Mar Cl 2 NHCh (250/133.5) 17f gd Ascot 2/1 11-11 6.1l L/4 off 144 – 131.6
led, jumped well, strongly challenged 2 out, headed soon after, no extra approaching last
Promising first season over fences winning 3 times at up to 20f; however, wind surgery mid-season didn’t bring any noticeable improvement and maybe will do better this term.
Plus: going (F); distance (F); down 1lb (OR); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course; 216-day break; up in class;
Verdict: showed promise last season and likely more to come this, but something to prove at this level perhaps and not the strongest contender.
Clondaw Castle 7-11-6 (144)
06 Apr Gr 1 NCh (561/) 16f gd Aint 13/2 11-4 23l 4/7 off 144
held up in touch, ridden and weakened after 2 out
Two early wins over fences at Leicester and Huntingdon perhaps raised expectations too high as he struggled off a 10lbs higher mark at both Cheltenham and Aintree; starts the season off the same mark and now has something to prove at this level.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); down in class;
Minus: class (?); course (?); 210-day break; up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: initial bubble of optimism punctured and now has something to prove; not the strongest contender perhaps.

A few others that could have a chance include Diego Du Charmil returning after wind surgery and bottom weight Cap St Vincent who has looked very much at home at the lower levels since turning to chasing. However, I’ll stick with my quartet, from which I’m going to drop the current favourite Clondaw Castle believing that he still has something to prove at this level. The same could perhaps be said of Capeland, although Nicholls can get them to show rapid improvement between seasons. Nevertheless, I’m going for Caid Du Lin and Speredek who met over C&D here last November. On that occasion Caid Du Lin came out on top, but there’s a massive pull in the weights today so a return is possibly on the cards. Still, CDL has already had an outing, plus the stable took last year’s renewal, so for me it’s Caid Du Lin from Speredek and perhaps Capeland.

Ascot 14.45 Listed Hcap Hurdle 342 (130.1) 15.5f gd/sf – 16 Run (15 at best)

Last season – 342 (133.1) gd – 9 ran
Fidux 9/1 5-11-2 (135) by 8l from Global Citizen 9/2 6-11-12 (145)
Sparkleandshine 28/1 5-10-3 (122) was 8.85l 4th

No time to look at this in detail, but my two shortlists were:
Jolly’s Cracked It, Didtheyleaveyoutoo, Gumball and Red Force One
Didtheyleaveyoutoo, Jolly’s Cracked It, Adjali and Gumball

Which would suggest that Didtheyleaveyoutoo, Jolly’s Cracked It and Gumball may be somewhere thereabouts.

Ascot 15.20 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 570 (147.5) 24f gd/sf – 18 Run (17 at best)

Last season – 570 (141.1) gd – 9 ran
Traffic Fluide 4/1 8-11-12 (149) by 0.5l from Art Mauresque 14/1 8-11-6 (148)
Go Conquer 11/4 F 9-11-10 (147) was 5.5l 3rd
Adrien Du Pont 13/2 6-11-7 (144) was 6.25l 4th

Black Corton 8-11-12 (163) (156.3)
31 Jul Gr A Hcap Chase (1770/144.5) 22.5f gd Gal 12/1 11-10 3.25l 2/22 off 158 – 152.8
pushed along briefly early on outer, soon prominent, 2nd halfway, led approaching 2 out, carried right by loose horse straight, headed and kept on without matching winner inside final furlong
16 Feb List Hcap Chase (427/148.2) 24f gd/sf Asc 9/4 F 11-6 2.25l 2/8 off 155 – 154.3
chased leader until 13th, chased leaders, 2nd again 16th, led approaching 2 out, headed and pecked last, stayed on same pace run-in
Useful chaser with 9 wins from his 20 starts over fences, the latest a Gr 2 chase at Sandown in April; showed his liking for C&D back in February when runner-up to Calipto with Regal Encore (-3) 7l back in 3rd; fine effort when last seen being runner-up in the Galway Plate at the end of July off 158; has been raised 5lbs for that, which gives him a load to carry here, plus is far more exposed than the average winner.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto;
Minus: 94-day break; up 5lbs (OR); up 2lbs (wt)
Verdict: class horse, but will need to break trends and set career best, so not teh strongest contender for the win perhaps.
Springtown Lake 7-10-1 (138) (152.4)
06 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (422/135.8) 25f gd Aint 10/1 11-4 PU/18 off 140 –
prominent early, soon held up in mid-division, mistake 13th, pulled up before 14th
Got his chasing career off to a great start when taking a Cl 3 NHCh over 22f at Sandown on his return last November; failed to build on that, however, finishing a distant 4/8 to Adrien Du Point (+2) at the Kempton Christmas meeting and then a distant 5/20 to A Plus Tard in the Close Bros. NHCh at the Festival in March, before being PU at Aintree when Mister Malarkey (+4) was runner-up; has been dropped a further couple of lbs and is now only 1lb higher than when starting last season; also won first-up the season before, plus season in good form.
Plus: class (F); going (F); down 17lbs (wt); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: distance; course (?); 210-day break;
Verdict: chance on debut chase run so possible contender despite maybe preferring softer ground
Mister Malarkey 6-10-13 (150) (150.3)
06 Apr Gr 3 Hcap Chase (422/135.8) 25f gd Aint 11/2 11-8 5l 2/18 off 147 – 135.3
always prominent, pushed along and slightly outpaced approaching3 out, ridden and rallied 2 out, chased winner approaching last, no extra flat
Very promising novice season over fences winning 3 of 6 starts, including a Gr 2 novice over C&D here in February and promised much for the future when runner-up in a Gr 3 HCh at Aintree when last seen in April; raised 3lbs for his return but won off a similar break on his return last season.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto; down 9lbs (wt);
Minus: 210-day break; up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: can go well fresh and an improving young chaser, a contender.
Vinndication 6-11-0 (151)
14 Mar Gr 1 Nov Chase (882/) 20f gd/sf Chelt 11/2 11-4 12.25l 5/10 off 150
led to before 2nd, blundered 4th, lost place 11th, chased leaders, ridden after 3 out, one pace and no impression from next, lost 4th post
Won his first 2 chase starts last season, the second when staying o0n strongly in a 4-runner Gr 2 NCh over 20f on sf here last December; moved up to Gr 1when 3/5 in the Scilly Isles at Sandown and ended the season by finishing 5/10 on the JLT Novices at the Festival; steps up in trip today, but being a Vinnie Roe gelding that should be no problem, plus he can go well fresh; has had a wind operation since and easy to see why he’s favourite on his hcap debut.
Plus: class (W+); course (W); down 4lbs (wt); down in class;
Minus: going; distance (?); up 1lb (OR); 233-day break; hcap debut; up in trip;
Verdict: hard to put figures to his career to date, but not hard to see why he’s seen as a strong contender.
On The Blind Side 7-10-12 (149)
27 Apr Gr 2 Hdl (313/) 21.5f gd Sand 11/4 11-3 9l 2/7 off 147
tracked leaders, close up in 2nd after 3 out, driven before next, ridden between last 2, kept on same pace, no chance with winner before last
26 Jan Cl 4 Nov Ch (46/) 24f gd/sf Kemp 11-3 7/4 2.25l 1/7 off 149
chased leading pair, went 2nd before 12th, led 14th, joined 2 out, shaken up and asserted last, came clear run-in
Grade-winning hurdler put to fences after the turn of the year, winning his second start over this trip at Kempton in late February; entered for the RSA novices at Cheltenham but was always struggling in the rear and PU before the 13th; reverted to hurdles for his final start of the season being runner-up in a Gr 2 at Sandown in April, likely to progress over fences this year, but no indication to date that he has the form to take this on his HCh debut.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); 189-day break; up in class;
Verdict: likely to be promising novice, but no form to back claims here and not the strongest contender.

A race where past indications suggest lightly-raced contenders with just 4 – 8 starts over fences, and not too heavily weighted – only last year’s winner has carried over 11-3, and that was a atypical race with just 8 runners. The other thing is that while only 1 of the last 11 favourites has scored, only a single winner has started at longer than 12/1.

Of others that didn’t make my final list, Nicholls other entry Adrien Du Pont is preferred to Larry, while I fear Relentless Dreamer and Go Conquer are a little exposed as 10yos. Joining them on the discard pile is On The Blind Side who looks to have a little to prove as yet. Black Corton has something to prove with this weight too and while I would not be surprised to see him make the frame, I fear he’s weighted out of the win. Of the remaining trio I wonder if Springtown Lake might prefer softer ground, plus he is a little bit of a reach, so I’m tempted to go with Mister Malarkey, although a saver on Vinndication is almost obligatory. So Mister Malarkey to hopefully hold off Vinndication with maybe Springtown Lake denying Black Corton for the minor places.