Saturday 23rd November

[Devasteve]

Typical early season luck at present and it doesn’t improve much today. However, I have stuck to the chases as the hurdle presents problems as explained. Let’s hope something falls right.

Haydock 12.40 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 313 (138.1) 24.5f gd/sf – 10 Run

Last year – 317 (138.5) gd – 6 ran
Vintage Clouds 100/30 8-11-11 (143) by 0.5l from Takingrisks 11/2 9-11-5 (130)

Thegliny 8-11-2 (135) (145.3)
19 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (313/138.4) 21.5f gd/sf M Ras 8/1 10-6 1.75l 2/9 off 133 – 133.3
led, headed when mistake 1st, led again after next, headed approaching 5th, not fluent next, outpaced 4 out, rallied 2 out, stayed on strongly into 2nd towards finish
Winning hurdler but just the 4 starts over fences and showed himself to be improving at Market Rasen last month on his first start since January; trip a new question, but could well be suited by this distance over fences.
Plus: class (F); going (W); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up 2lbs (OR); up 10lbs (wt);
Verdict: not without questions, but a potential contender.
Singlefarmpayment 9-11-9 (142)
Not been seen since finishing a creditable 8/40 in the National at Aintree; however, while he has run well on occasions it is almost 3 years since his only win over fences and he’s still running off the same mark as when finishing runner-up in the Ultima HCh at the 2107 Festival.
Plus: class (F+); going (F); distance (F); down class; down 4lbs (OR);
Minus: Haydock (?); up 17lbs (wt); 231-day break;
Verdict: will surely win again one day, but not the strongest contender today one thinks.
Burtons Well 10-11-5 (138) (139.0)
27 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (188/135.1) 25f sf Aint 11/2 11-1 4.5l 1/7 off 133 – 130.0
waited with in 5th, headway on outside before 3 out, went 2nd 2out, soon switched right, led before last, driven clear
Lightly raced for a 10yo and stepped up in trip with little effort when returning from a 21-month break at Aintree last month; raised 5lbs for that but has been given time to get over it and could possibly have more to give on only his 11th chase start.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (37 days);
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs (OR); up 4lbs (wt); Haydock debut;
Verdict: fit and in form and thus a likely contender.
Crievehill 7-11-12 (145) (134.2)
16 Oct Cl 3 Hcap Chase (82/132.6) 19.5f gd/sf Weth 9/4 Jt F 11-9 9l 1/9 off 138 – 132.5
led until 5th, led after 7th, headed 11th, led after 12th, clear last, stayed on well
Failed to win last term but finished the season in good enough style by being 4th in the Kim Muir at the Festival in March; good start to this term when dropped back to 19f in lower class at Wetherby last month, staying on well; however, has yet to win beyond 20f, plus is up in both class and weight today.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (38 days);
Minus: up 7lbs (OR); up 3lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: god effort on return but is up in class, weight and trip, which may prove too hard a task, so a contender with questions.
Back To The Thatch 7-10-11 (130) (136.3)
26 Oct Cl2 Hcap Chase (372/137.1) 25f sf Chelt 8/1 10-5 19.5l 7/15 off 132 – 119.3
tracked leaders, blundered 11th, pushed along after 3 out (usual 4out), weakened before 2 out
Not the best win record over fences, although ran well enough when 4th in the Welsh National Trial and when favourite over 27.5f here last December; tired and fell late on in the Midlands National on final start in March; fair enough return at Cheltenham last month and could come on for that perhaps.
Plus: class (F); distance (F); course (F); recent outing (28 days); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: going; up 6lbs (wt);
Verdict: needs to come on for Cheltenham return, but scope for improvement perhaps and a possible contender.

There has not been a winner aged 10yo or older this past decade, which raises a question about the current favourite Burtons Well, although he is lightly raced over fences. Interestingly, 9 of the last 10 winners had finished in the first two in at least one of their last two starts, which helps to trim the field a little, plus the winners generally come from the front of the betting

Ami Desbois didn’t impress on his return at Ascot at the start of the month and is passed over. Joining him on the discard pile is Singlefarmpayment who just doesn’t win. Back To The Thatch is another that has to come on for his return outing, but he does look to have potential. The question about the top weight Crievehill, meanwhile, is not just his higher mark but also the trip, over which he has yet to win. It’s not hard to see why Burtons Well is favourite but besides the age factor, I wonder if he’s as likely to win on the drying ground. Thus while he has questions of his own, I would be tempted to go with Theligny as offering more value to at least make the frame, So for me it’s Theligny from Burtons Well with maybe Crievehill heading Back To The Thatch for the minor placings.

Haydock 14.25 Gr 3 Hcap Hurdle 570 (135.1) 24.5f gd/sf – 17 Run

Last year – 570 (135.6) gd 7 ran
Paisley Park 4/1 6-11-12 (147) by 0.5l Shades Of Midnight 20/1 8-11-2 (137)

With no fewer than 5 of the field making their handicap debuts and a number of others never tried anywhere near the distance this is a highly dangerous race to consider. Yet surprisingly, there hasn’t been a winner longer than 12/1 in the last 10 years.

No time to go through things in details but on my shortlist for further study were Tedham, Stoney Mountain, Breaking Waves and Flash The Steel.

Ascot 15.20 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 782 (142.9) 17f sf – 11 Run (10 at best)

Last year – 782 (146.8) gd/sf – 13 ran
Caid Du Lin 16/1 6-10-11 (139) by 1.25l from Speredek 12/1 7-11-9 (151)
Marracudja 14/1 7-10-7 (135) was 4.25l 3rd

Capeland 7-10-13 (143) (156 est))
02 Nov List Chase (342/141.2) 17f gd/sf Ascot 8/1 11-5 disq. P5 off 143 – (141.3 est)
held up in touch, hampered 7th, pushed along after 3 out, every chance when carried out last
Won 3 chases before the turn of the year, but hasn’t been as lucky since undergoing wind surgery in January; however, looked certain to make a race a race of it with his stable companion on his return here at the start of the month, but DDC guided him through the wings at the last and he was disqualified and placed 5th; however, has a 6lbs pull today and should gain his revenge.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent outing (21 days); down in class;
Minus: course; up 6lbs (wt);
Verdict: weighted to reverse previous running here and a contender.
Diego Du Charmil 7-11-12 (156) (153.3)
02 Nov List Chase (342/141.2) 17f gd/sf Ascot 13/2 11-9 0.5l 1/12 off 150 – 148.3
held up, steady progress 5th, went 2nd after 4 out, led before 2 out, distracted by loose horse when swerved left and jumped upright part of last fence, all out
Good start to chasing career but winless last season in Grade class and had a wind operation between seasons; returned in good form though when winning over C&D her at the start of the month, although may have been fortunate that stable companion Capeland (-4) was forced to jump the wing at the last and was disqualified; raised 6lbs for that and thus meets C on 6lbs worse terms; however, could well be more to come.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days); down in class;
Minus: up 6lbs (OR);
Verdict: maybe fortunate on return, but still a contender.
Caid Du Lin 7-11-1 (145) (150.5)
02 Nov List Chase (342/141.2) 17f gd/sf Ascot 5/1 11-5 7.75l 4/12 off 146 – 134.5
held up in rear, pushed along 8th, soon struggling, ridden approaching 3 out, stayed on from 2 out, never nearer
Won last year’s renewal off 139 and has had the same prep race again this year, but could only finish 4th to Diego Du Charmil (+4); meets the winner on 4lbs better terms today, but while he’s likely to improve it may not be enough to match the form figure of 155.9 he recorded when taking last year’s renewal.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days); down in class; down 1lb (OR); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: likely to improve on recent C&D effort, but not the strongest contender perhaps.
Knocknanuss 9-11-2 (146) (150.8)
26 Oct Cl 2 Hcap Chase (372/140.0) 16f hv Chelt 11/2 11-1 2.5 3/11 off 144 – 138.8
took keen hold, pressed leader, led 6th, driven when hard pressed turning in, ridden and headed approaching last, kept on under pressure flat
Found Grade class a little above him last season, but made a promising return at Cheltenham last month when 3rd to Saint Calvados and Vaniteux (-18); would expect him to reverse running with V today on 1lb better terms and wearing first-time blinkers despite being raised 2lbs.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs (OR); up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: likely to improve for return run and could well be a contender.
The Last Day 7-10-12 (142) (134.6)
09 Nov Cl 3 Hcap Chase (162/130.5) 16f sf Aint 2/1 F 11-4 5l 1/8 off 131 – 118.6
chased leaders, went 2nd from 6th, led going well 2 out, soon clear
Promising novice chasers who was impressive on his return at Aintree a fortnight ago; raised 11lbs for that and is up in class, but likely a lot more to come and could be thereabouts today.
Plus: going (W); distance (F); form run lto (14 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 11lbs (OR);
Verdict: impressive at Aintree, but this a lot harder up in class off such a raised mark.

Caid Du Lin improved from Ascot ‘trial’ to win last year’s renewal from Speredek (+12) and Marracudja (-4). The fact that the pair are 10lbs and 5lbs better off, respectively, tells you why I’ve passed on them today, especially as CDL has some improvement to find himself. The one that worries me is The Last Day who could be one of those rapid improvers that embarrass the handicapper. However, the trio that interest me most are the Nicholls pair, Capeland and Diego Du Charmil, and the potential improving Knocknanuss. I have to think that Capeland should take this (unless he gets knocked off course again!) with Diego Du Charmil perhaps outpointing Knocknanuss.

[martinkil]

All 3 winners from your shortlists and Capeland selected to win with the forecast also given - pat on the back time.

[Devasteve]

Thanks Martin, never ceases to amaze me when days turn out as planned, well almost!