Friday 29th November

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Friday 29th November

Postby Devasteve » Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:44 am

Well last Saturday was a move in the right direction and hopefully as the form settles down there will be more days like that, perhaps starting today?

Newbury 13.50 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 313 (145.7) 20f sf – 12 Run

Last year – 314 (143.0) gd/sf – 6 ran
Aso 8/1 8-11-10 (150) by 13l from Touch Kick 5/2 Jt F 7-10-4 (130)

Kalashnikov 6-11-12 (155) (164.5)
27 Oct Gr 2 HCh (450/155.3) 20f sf Aint 7/5 F 10-10 2.75l 2/5 off 155 – 162.5
tracked leading pair, dived at 2nd, went 2nd 8th (3 out), led going well after bypassing omitted 2 out, headed bypassing omitted last, readily outpaced by winner
Excellent record over fences (6/5/12) and made a fine HCh debut on his return when runner-up in the Gr 2 Old Roan at Aintree last month; perhaps surprisingly, runs off the same mark here but carries 16lbs more physical weight, which is 5lbs more than he’s carried before; however, this is nowhere near the same class; had finished last season with a Gr 1 NCh win over this trip at Aintree in April, plus has won over hurdles here.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (33 days); down 2 classes;
Minus: course (?); up 16lbs (wt);
Verdict: has promised to make up into a top class chaser and has chances to advance his claims today, a strong contender.
The Bay Birch 8-11-8 (151) (152.4)
07 Nov List Ch (173/) 24f hv MRas 10/11F 11-0 25l L/4 off 152 -
chased leader, not fluent 2nd, pushed along before 3 out, lost 2nd 2 out, weakened last, lost 3rd close home
12 Oct Cl 2 HCh (203/144.1) 10.5f sf Chep 20/1 10-13 2.75l 1/10 off 145 – 143.4
chased leader until after 5th, 2nd again next, led going well 4 out, clear next, stayed on strongly
Useful mare who has a good strike rate over fences (8/37) and completed a hat-trick on her return at Chepstow last month; raised 6lbs for that she likely found a mixture of ground and class against her when sent back up to 24f in a listed chase at Market Rasen earlier in the month; has been dropped 1lb for that, but would still need a career best to prevail here.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent outing (22 days); down in class; down in trip; down 1lbs (OR);
Minus: course; up 5lbs (wt);
Verdict: likeable sort, but maybe too much if an ask for her today and not the strongest contender.
San Benedeto 8-11-9 (152) (147.7)
19 Oct Cl 2 HCh (313/138.4) 21.5f gd/sf MRas 8/1 11-7 8/1 19.25l 6/9 off 153 – 1263
mid-division, keen, headway to lead approaching 5th, headed before 3 out, soon lost place
02 Mar Gr 3 HCh (285/141.4) 20f gd/sf Newb 11/1 11-5 2.25l 1/16 off 147 – 142.7
mid-division, steady headway before 4 out, chased leaders went 2nd at the last, ridden to lead run-in, stayed on well
Useful chaser but hadn’t won for a couple of years when beating Gala Ball (-6) in a Gr 3 HCh over C&D here in April; not disgraced in final 2 starts in grade class either; had breathing operation between seasons and not a lot expected when claimer-ridden on his return at Market Rasen last month; likely has fitness edge over Gala Ball who he meets on 2lbs better terms.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (41 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: likely to have come on for return and looks a contender here.
Gala Ball 9-11-5 (148) (147.1)
23 Mar Cl 2 HCh (127/139.8) 20f gd/sf Newb 13/8 F 11-12 1l 1/5 off 144 – 138.1
tracked leader, not fluent and lost place briefly 5 out, led 3 out, ridden before last, kept on well under pressure flat
Not seen since winning over C&D here back in March and runs off a 4lbs higher mark today; had previously finished runner-up to San Benedeto (+6) over C&D here on first start for 2 years; noted that all 5 wins have come in the first 3 months of the year as he’s only ever run 4 times before end of the year.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto; down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: up 4lbs (OR); 251-day break;
Verdict: runs off a career high mark and will need another career best in his return, thus not the strongest contender perhaps.

You can make a case for quite a few here, although I fear the new mark may prove too much for O O Seven on return. Spiritofthegames is another that’s had a wind operation between seasons and looked to be in need of his return run. Oldgrangewood won the 2017 renewal, but that was off 145 and he’s not won since, plus the fact he’s running off 10lbs lower today suggests he’s still in decline. Eamon An Cnoic has not shown much since finishing 4th in the Plate at the Festival, while I’m struggling to find figures to suggest that either Glen Forsa or Azzerti can win this.

Looking at my quartet I have to think that Kalashnikov looks the strongest contender here and expect him to win from San Benedito and perhaps Gala Ball edging The Bay Birch.

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