Saturday 30th November

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 30th November

Postby Devasteve » Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:52 am

Didn’t quite work out yesterday I’m afraid, although it was one of those very rare occasions when I only really fancied one horse in the race – teach me to be so arrogant!

Newbury 15.00 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 1424 (147.2) 22.5f gd/sf – 24 Run

Last year – 1424 (147.6) sf – 12 ran
Sizing Tennessee 12/1 10-11-3 (148) by 10l from Elegant Escape 4/1 6-11-10 (155)
Dingo Dollar 10/1 6-11-3 (148) was 17l 3rd
Beware The Bear 14/1 8-11-3 (148) was 32l 4th
West Approach 25/1 8-10-11 (142) was 39l 5th

On The Blind Side 7-11-1 (149) (156.0)
02 Nov Gr 3 HCh (570/147.5) 24f gd/sf 5/1 10-12 10l 4/16 off 149 – 143.0
held up and behind, headway 2 out, stayed on to take 4th flat, nearest finish
Useful hurdler who gained his first chase success at Kempton in January; PU in the RSA at Cheltenham, and then switched back to hurdles to regain confidence at Sandown in April; well backed for return in the Sodexo Gold Cup at the start of the month and not disgraced as a staying-on 4/16 to Vindication and Regal Encore (-7); only 1lb better off with RE for 5l, but likely to take more benefit from the race.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: ticks a lot of the boxes for a potential winner and a contender.
Dingo Dollar 7-10-12 (146) (152.6)
Third in last season’s spread out renewal off 148 and runs off a 2lbs lower mark today; has followed the same route as last year when he was 4th in a hurdle run here on his return; this time round he was 3rd just back of Daklondike (-2); the fact that he runs off a 2lbs lower mark this year rather portrays his lack of a win since February 2018, although was 2/7 over 26f at Doncaster in March; however, owes his place here due to his effort in last year’s renewal, although noted a first-time visor is fitted.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (23 days); down 1lb (OR); down 14lbs (wt);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: considered on effort in last year’s renewal and a possible contender.
Elegant Escape 7-11-12 (160)
O2 Nov Gr 2 Chase (572/) 24f sf Weth 6/1 11-4 3.75l 2/7 off 160
held up towards rear, mistake 5th, ridden and outpaced before 4out, headway before 2 out, kept on to chase winner run-in, always well held
Runner-up in last year’s renewal off a 5lbs lower mark, but went on to land a gamble in the Welsh National off 151; followed up by finishing runner-up in the Cotswold chase at Cheltenham, but found the Gold Cup and Aintree’s Betway Bowl a little beyond his comfort zone; ran well enough in the Charlie Hall on his return, although was never getting to the winner and likely to put in a bold efforts in first-time blinkers off top weight.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (28 days); down in class;
Minus: up 8lbs (wt);
Verdict: lot to do returning to handicaps, but likely to be thereabouts and a contender.
De Rasher Counter 7-11-1 (149) (139.8)
Proved a useful novice last season winning over 22.5f here in late December and closing his season by winning over 24f on hv at Uttoxeter in March off 140; had a pipe-opener there off his lower hurdles mark last month and should strip fitter for the outing; runs off a 9lbs higher mark than for his latest win, but further improvement expected this year, especially under demanding conditions.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (43 days); down 16lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); up 9lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: drying ground may be against him on his first run at this level and not the strongest contender perhaps.
OK Corral 9-11-3 (151)
Smart staying hurdler and won first 2 starts over fences before being PU in the 32f NH Chase at Cheltenham; not seen since, but the stable’s in good form and he’s likely to improve this season; however, this only his fourth start over fences and his first handicap, so little to go one.
Plus: distance (W); down 2lbs (OR); down 3lbs (2t); down in class;
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); 263-day break; age (?);
Verdict: little to go on over fences so very much a contender with questions.
Cabaret Queen 7-10-12 (146) (124.6)
13 Oct Gr A HCh (590/131.8) 24f hv Lim 8/1 9-12 13l 1/16 off 126 – 108.6
soon disputed lead, led from 7th, still travelling smoothly straight, quickly asserted, stayed on well, easily
Hadn’t shown a lot with Skelton last winter and moved to the Mullins yards over the summer; hacked up in the Munster National last month on what was only his second start for his new connections, although it wasn’t the classiest of renewals and he may have been best favoured by the demanding conditions; obviously useful, but has been raised 20lbs for that success and the average opposition is 15lbs better today.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); form run lto (48 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class; up 20lbs (OR); up 14lbs (wt);
Verdict: obviously a useful staying mare, but entering a whole new ballgame and this is a stiff test off such an inflated mark; not the strongest contender perhaps.

Plenty of stats to work on for what used to be the Hennessey, not least that we’re basically looking for an up and coming chaser that is at the front end of the market. Plus as is evident in many of the major handicaps, the class horses are increasingly to the fore and you can forget any horse with a OR of less than 145. Sizing Tennessee was the exception to prove the rule last year, as 15/17 renewals have been won by horses between 6yo and 8yo and only a single winner was outside the 3-14 chase starts indicator. Other things to look for are no more than 6 starts in the past year, a top 3 finish lto, and a previous chase win over at least 24f.

Since I started this there has been a deal of money for West Approach as Tizzard goes for his third race winner in four years. He didn’t make my shortlist as failed on a number of factors, although stable companion Elegant Escape did. Of those that did make my list, OK Corral is a 9yo and has too little chase form for me to get a handle, and thus goes out. Cabaret Queen is another as impressive though her Munster National win was the handicapper has responded and now looks to have too much improvement to make. Had the rains come and the ground softened I might have included De Rasher Counter, but not today methinks. I have to include Elegant Escape in my final trio as he is the class horse of the race. However, I believe Dingo Dollar may well be thereabouts too and could reverse last year’s running with Elegant Escape. However, I think the one they both have to beat is On The Blind Side who is taken to win from Dingo Dollar and Elegant Escape.

Newbury 15.40 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 250 (139.0) 16.5f gd/sf – 15 Run (14 at best)

Last year – 250 (137.9) sf – 10 ran
Lady Buttons 5/2 F 8-11-3 (140) by 2.25l from Sheer Rock 20/1 8-10-4 (127)
Dicosimo 40/1 7-10-12 (135) was 22.25l 5th

Bun Doran 8-11-12 (150) (160.1)
Won return at Cheltenham last term and ran well there in the Grand Annual at the Festival; not at his best at Punchestown in May though; however, goes well fresh, although rider suggests he’s not fully wound up today.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); 212-day break;
Verdict: goes well fresh, but jockey booking suggests a contender with questions today.
Magic Saint 5-11-9 (147) (149.2)
16 Nov Gr 3 HCh (900/142.9) 20f sf Chelt 20/1 11-8 16l 5/17 off 148 – 139.9
held up behind, headway on long run before 2 out, kept on same pace, never nearer
Won at Wincanton in early February, but failed to go on from that; however, plenty of promise on return when stepped up in class and trip at Cheltenham and will likely go well dropped back in trip,
Plus: class (W); distance (W); form run lto (14 days); down in class; down 1lb (OR); back in trip;
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: looks to be a strong contender dropped in trip and class if coming on for return.
No Comment 8-11-0 (138) (141.0)
12 Nov Cl 3 HCh (96/131.9) 21f sf Here 4/1 11-9 4l 3/9 off 137 – 127.0
held up towards rear, headway on inside before 3 out, 3rd when mistake 2 out, stayed on same pace last
Yet to break his duck after 5 chase starts, but would have been closer save for a mistake lto; not sure of the marked drop in trip, but the market looks interested.
Plus: class (F); going (W); form run lto (18 days); down 9lbs (wt);
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up 1lb (OR); up in class; down in trip;
Verdict: chances not obvious, but market interest suggests he may be a contender.
Ashoka 7-10-11 (135) (136.8)
14 Jun Cl 3 HCh (75/128.8) 16f gd/sf Aint 6/5 F 11-8 4l 1/4 off 130 – 119.8
Returned from a year off to win a couple of hcaps in June; needs further improvement to win off revised mark, but could well improve.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto; down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); 169-day break; up 5lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: not without a chance if fit for return, a contender.

Whatswrongwithyou, returning from a wind operation, and Chesterfield making his hcap debut are others that good feature, but a little like yesterday I have eyes mainly for one horse, Magic Saint who looks like he may be a class above this field, So in a rushed analysis I’m going for Magic Saint from perhaps Bun Duran and No Comment.

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 30th November

Postby martinkil » Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:18 pm

3-1 winner and 9-1 2nd for the forecast - nicely done sir

Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Re: Saturday 30th November

Postby Devasteve » Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:29 pm

Thanks Martin, makes up for Friday!


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