Saturday 7 December

[Devasteve]

A little better last week but this time the attention turns to Aintree, which I count as one of the toughest course to pick winners. Let’s hope were somewhere close then!

Aintree 13.30 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 842 (144.4) 26f sf – 18 Run

Last year – 842 (143.8) sf – 18 ran
Walk In The Mill 10/1 8-10-3 (137) by 4.5l from Vieux Lion Rouge 11/1 9-10-12 (146)
Ballyoptic 15/2 80-11-7 (155) Fell 11th
Regal Flow 20/1 11-10-6 (140) UR 14th

One For Arthur 10-11-12 (149) (164.8)
26 Oct Cl 2 HCh (188/143.4) 26f gd/sf Kel 10/1 11-10 11.25l 4/7 off 151 – 155.5
held up in rear, under pressure 11th, headway to chase leaders approaching omitted 2 out, kept on same pace
Winner of 2017 National off 148 and after UR on first 2 starts last term rebounded to finish a creditable 6/40 in last year’s National; likely needed the run on his return at Kelso in October where he was never in contention with Mysteree (-18); meets M on 7lbs better terms, but likely to have come on a bunch since then and off only 1lb more than when winning the National must be given a chance.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (42 days); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: up 2lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: not out of it on return running and thrown in on form of National win, a contender.
Walk In The Mill 9-10-8 (141) (163.0)
09 Nov List HCh (353/141.2) 25f gd/sf Winc 20/1 11-1 PU/13 off 142 –
mid-division, headway on inside chasing leaders 9th, weakened before 17th, behind and pulled up before 2 out
Comfortable enough winner from Vieux Lion Rouge (+9) in last year’s renewal off 1 4lbs lower mark and after a couple of hurdle outings went on to finish a creditable 4/40 in the National off 144; looked to need his return in the Badger last month and will likely strip a lot fitter today; ground and fences should prove no problem and while he meets VLR on 5lbs worse terms this year he seems likely to again finish in front.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (28 days); down 1lb (OR); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: likely been targeted at this again and a solid contender on his National running.
Vintage Clouds 9-10-12 (145) (162.0)
26 Oct Cl 2 HCh (188/143.4) 26f gd/sf Kel 11/2 11-6 28l 5/7 off 147 -
chased leaders, lost place 9th, soon struggling in rear
Useful chaser who crumpled on landing at the first in the April’s National, but had won a NHCh on the Mildmay course in October 2017; very much in need of his return when finishing a distant 5/7 at Kelso in late October beaten 28l by Mysteree (-14) and 17l back of One For Arthur (+4) in 4th; dropped 2lbs for that and making his way back to the 143 off which he won at Haydock in November last year.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (42 days); down 2lbs (OR); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: has run well in top hcaps on occasions and deserves to take one if he can handle the fences, a contender.
Definitly Red 10-11-10 (157) (155.7)
02 Nov Gr 2 Chase (572/) 24f sf Weth 5/1 11-6 26l 4/7 off 160
close up, ridden before 4 out, weakened before last
Infrequent runner in hcaps, but has twice won the Gr 2 Ch at this meeting (off 164 last year) so course and distance pose no problem; likely to come on for his return in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby last month where the superior fitness of Ballyoptic (-6) definitely told; 8lbs better off with B today; first HCh start since being PU in the 2017 National here and figures relate to his previous start when winning at Doncaster.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (35 days); down 3lbs (OR); down in class;
Minus: up 4lbs (wt); first HCh start in 32 months;
Verdict: given a chance on Doncaster figures in March 2017 and a possible contender.
As De Mee 9-10-11 (144) (156.0)
Won the Grand Sefton here in December 2016 and finished 5/29 in the Topham the following April; however, UR at the 10th in the 2017 renewal of this in the December and has only had 2 starts since; unwise to read too much into his return over hurdles at Cheltenham 3 weeks ago, as that was his first start in around 21 months; should strip a lot fitter today back over fences.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (21 days); down 5lbs (OR); down 12lbs (wt);
Minus: class; first chase start in 21 months; up in class;
Verdict: difficult to know how fit he is and how much of his chasing talent has been retained, but Nicholls has a good record in the race, plus would have a chance on Kelso win over 26f in October 2017.
Wandrin Star 8-10-6 (139) (147.5)
27 Oct Cl 3 HCh (162/134.9) 26.5f gd Winc 11/1 11-7 0.5l 1/10 off 135 – 147.5
mid-division, headway 13th, chased leaders next, outpaced 4 out, rallied 2 out, left in 2nd last, soon every chance, stayed on gamely to lead close home
Stepped up on previous form on return at Wincanton in October and looks as if marked improvement may be forthcoming this year; raised 4lbs for that success and is up some way in class, but the bigger question is how he’ll handle these demanding fences.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (41 days); down 15lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: looks to be the sort of improving chaser who could go well if handling the fences that is; a contender with a major question then.

Plenty of trends, but it all boils down to whether they can handle the fences. While Vieux Lion Rouge did win as a 7yo, he’s one of only of that age to have won in recent memory and while there have been higher weighted winners, few carry over 10-12 to victory. In fact if you take the little group that are 2 – 8lbs above the average OR, they just don’t win. Other pluses are a run within 7 weeks, though no more than one in the current season, previous run over the National fences, at least 13 chase starts, 7 in hcaps, with wins in Cl 2 or higher and over at least 24f.

Of those who don’t make my shortlist, I fear Mulcahys Hill is too inexperienced over fences, while Mysteree is a little too old and has probably had his win for the season. Nor am I in strong support of the chances of Vieux Lion Rouge who won the 2016 renewal.

With the ground being soft, I’m going to pass on those at the top of the weights, which besides Ballyoptic include Definitly Red and One For Arthur from my shortlist. Of my remaining quartet, As De Mee worries me in that his lack of recent chase form is a minus, but it is Nicholls so that’s a plus. I also worry whether Wandrin Star has the experience to win at this level, although I feel he will in time. So that leaves me with last year’s winner Walk In The Mill and Vintage Clouds. Of the pair, Walk In The Mill still looks the best handicapped and thus is taken to edge out Vintage Clouds with As De Mee and Wandrin Star fighting it out for the minor places.

Aintree 15.15 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 495 (135.0) 21f sf – 14 Run

Last year – 495 (138.6) sf – 11 ran
Warriors Tale 15/2 9-11-2 (147) by 1.5l from Brandon Hill 11/1 10-10-9 (130)

Ultra Gold 11-11-2 (142) (153.7)
PU in a Gr 3 at Ascot last month, but has fine form round here having won the Topham twice and finishing 3rd in the Becher last season, plus even completed the National in 14th; versatile in regard to trip and going, can’t be left out of contention.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (35 days); down 4lbs (OR);
Minus: up 14lbs wt; down in trip; down in class;
Verdict: given his form round here a strong contender.
Flying Angel 8-11-3 (143) (153.0)
22 Nov Cl 2 HCh (219/137) 21f sf Asc 3/1 11-10 8l 1/7 off 140 – 142.0
jumped right at times, tracked leaders, led 5 out, ridden 2 out, soon asserted, driven out
Breaking a long losing run at Ascot last month for which he carries 3lbs penalty; has plenty of experience here, including a win, and can handle the ground.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (15 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: 3lbs penalty;
Verdict: young enough to bounce back this season and a contender.
Killaro Boy 10-10-11 (137) (151.4)
27 Oct Cl 2 HCh (199/135.1) 25f sf Aint 11/2 11-5 4.5l 2/7 off 137 – 134.4
led and disputed, in front 9th, ridden and headed before last, kept on same pace run-in
Twice a winner in Ireland as a novice over fences, but had rather lost his way and transferred to current yard between seasons; got off the mark for new connections in a Hunter Chase back in May; narrowly beaten in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter in June and far from disgraced here in October; looks to have scope for further improvement, although is dropping back in trip today.
Plus: class (F+); going (F); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (41 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: drop in trip;
Verdict: scope for improvement in UK, a contender.
Touch Kick 8-10-13 (139) (142.8)
18 Oct Cl 3 HCh (98/130.8) 24f gd Fake 11/4 F 11-9 7l 1/6 off 132 – 127.8
led and disputed, in front 9th, ridden and headed before last, kept on same pace run-in
Progressive sort who won a Cl 3 on return at Fakenham in October; raised 7lbs for that, steps up in class, although does drop back in trip; found the step up in class against when PU in the Gr 3 Betway chase here in April, but at least has some experience of the fences.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (50 days); down 10lbs (wt);
Minus: course; up 7lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: improving sort who may well take rise in class in his stride, a contender.

Fewer trends to go on here, but it would seem best to go with those aged 8yo and above who are carrying 10-12 or more. Experience of the fences is always a plus at Aintree, plus a chase win over at least 20f. Perhaps surprisingly, the winner is usually at double digit odds.

So Didero Vallis and Its Jennifer go out on age, and Gold Present on making his season’s return. Looking at the shortlist it might be worthwhile risking Ultragold to continue his fine form round here from perhaps Flying Angel and Killaro Boy.

Sandown 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 495 (135.0) 21f sf – 14 Run

Last year –310 (141.9) sf – 8 ran
Morney Wing 12/1 9-9-7 (121) by 1l from Red Infantry 7/2 8-11-2 (137)
Shanroe Santos 3/1 F 9-11-2 (137) was 14.02l 4th
Royal Vacation 7/2 8-11-11 (146) was 32.02l 6th

Sadly no time to look at this, but seeing as I would prefer at least an 8yo or older horse out go Classic Ben, Dragon D’Estruval and Coningsby. In the belief that Houblon Des Obeaux has too much to do under top weight, my initial shortlist would include Rpyal Vacation, Shanroe Santos, Sharp Response and Step Back.