Friday Newmarket 13.50

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Friday Newmarket 13.50

Postby Devasteve » Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:36 am

Ouch! Not even close!

Newmarket 13.50 Cl 2 Hcap 97 (98.9) 6f gd/fm – 11 Run

Swindler 4-8-12 (96) Dr 10 (99.8)
’19 Best: 2/0/3
07/09/19 Cl 2 Hcap (187/92.7) 6f gd/fm Ascot 8-12 100/30 F 1/14 0.75l off 90 – 83.8
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F);
Minus:
Verdict: won both Ascot starts and not clear run at Newmarket but ran on when clear; obviously a rapidly improving horse with only 6 starts to his name and starts the year off a 6lbs higher mark; reasonable to suppose he’ll be competitive off this mark.
Dazzling Dan 4-9-5 (103) Dr 2 (102.2)
’19 Best: 2/2/7
17/8/19 Cl 2 Hcap (280/93.1) 6f gd Newmkt 9-4 100/30 1/9 0.5l off 99 – 93.2
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W);
Minus:
Verdict: C&D winner on gd off 4lbs less, reasonable to suppose he’ll be competitive off this mark
Summerghand 6-9-2 (100) Dr 1 (110.7)
’19 Best: 1/6/10
21/09/19 Cl 2 Hcap (1245/100.0) 6f gd Ayr 9-2 11/1 4/24 1.75l off 102 – 98.7
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W);
Minus:
Verdict: just the one win last year but plenty of noble efforts in top class handicaps and not disgraced in the Gulf in the New Year; tried at 7f last two runs, and might be his future distance.
Open Wide 5-9-0 (98) Dr 8 (104.7)
’19 Best: 1/5/11
24/06/19 Cl 3 Hcap (72/89.0) 6f gd Wind 9-11 7/1 1/9 0.5l off 92 – 82.1
03/08/19 Cl 2 Hcap (1556/98.6) 6f gd/fm Good 8-12 14/12/27 2.75l off 95 – 87.8
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F-);
Minus:
Verdict: generally wins on second-class courses such as Windsor, Salisbury, Bath, but nearly pulled a surprise in Steward’s Cup off 95; now running off 98, 6lbs more than career best.
Flavius Titus 5-8-13 (97) Dr 12 (106.6)
’19 Best: 2/1/5
08/06/19 Cl 2 Hcap (129/95.5) 6f gd/fm Newmkt 9-7 4/1 1/13 0.25l off 95 – 91.6
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W);
Minus:
Verdict: won over C&D first up and again off only 2lbs less when with Varian; however, finished last in Stewards’ Cup and again in final start at Doncaster; moved to O’Keefe yard (downgrade?) and first race apprentice ridden.

Pass the Vino started the season in good form, but fell away the last 3 starts. Starts this season still 9lbs above high highest winning mark and is ignored. Open Wide has yet to win at this level despite some stellar efforts and running off 6lbs more than his highest winning mark doesn’t really appeal even with Moore riding. Flavius Titus had two seasons in one, winning 2 of his first 3 starts here, and then finished plumb last in his next two starts. Switched stable since and with all the will in the world I don’t put Jed O’Keefe on the same level as Roger Varian. So I’ll pass on this one too. Summerghand has some near misses last season before winning a Cl 2 Stakes on his final start of the season. That’s the worry to me, the nearly not quite horse. He’s followed the same pattern in the Gulf this winter, and noticeably his last two starts were at 7f. He might run in the frame but I don’t see him winning. So that leaves me with the two improvers, Dazzling Dan and Swindler. Dazzling Dan rose 15lbs in the weights last season and I think the extra ask today will prove beyond him. Swindler on the other hand has only had a handful of races and looks to be improving at a rate of knots. So it’s Swindler from Dazzling Dan and Summerghand finishing in the frame once more.

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