Saturday 6th June Newmarket

[Devasteve]

Well, 40/1 winners do occur every now and then!

Newmarket 13.15 Cl 2 Hcap 97 (94.2) 5f gd/fm – 12 Run

Aplomb 4-9-1 (96) Dr 5 (104.0)
’19 record: 2/2/9
11/8/19 Cl 3 Hcap (129/84.0) 6f gd/sf Leic 9-5 2/1/F 1/6 0.25l off 88 – 77.8
04/10/19 Cl 2 Hcap (187/92.8) 6f sf Ascot 8-10 4/1 2/10 0.25l off 93 – 91.0
Plus: class (F); going (F);
Minus: distance; course;
Verdict: 6f on gd/sf or sf has been his forte so; runs off 8lbs higher than best winning mark, too many negatives for me
Count D’orsay 4-9-1 (96) Dr 6 (99.7)
’19 record: 3/2/7
19/10/19 Cl 2 Hcap (218/89.9) 5f sf Catt 9-0 5/1 1/14 0.5l off 91 – 86.7
Plus: class (C); distance (W);
Minus: going; course (?);
Verdict: generally progressive winning over 5f on gd/sf and sf 3 times, the last time in Cl 2; only attempt on gd/fm in Cl 2 App was unpl but placed in Cl 4 on gd; runs on 5lbs higher than last mark, but is improving; question on going.
Makanah 5-9-1 (96) Dr 1 (109.1)
’19 record: 2/2/7
01/06/19 Cl 3 Hcap (120/78.9) 5f gd/sf Muss 9-7 13/8 F 1/7 2.25l off 89 – 73.7
21/08/19 Cl 2 Hcap (436/97.0) 5.5f gd York 9-2 40/1 4/22 1l off 96 – 96.1
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: steadily improved and followed York performance with a close 7th in the Portland; runs off same mark as in the Portland, and only question is stall 1.
Stone Of Destiny 5-9-2 (97) Dr 10 (116.3)
’19 record: 1/1/12
10/08/19 Cl 2 Hcap (295/101.5) 5f gd Ascot 9-4 11/2 1/10 0.02l off 97 – 104.3
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W);
Minus: course;
Verdict: after spending ’18 combating stks races it took him most of last year getting his weight down to a reasonable mark, plus ran mainly over 6f; finished well to win at Ascot and runs off that mark today, having run over 5.5f and 6f his last 3 starts, stable in fine fettle and a likely contender.
Leodis Dream 4-9-7 (102) (108.2)
’19 record: 4/0/9
21/09/19 Cl 2 Hcap (127/95.4) 5f AW Chelm 9-7 6/1 1/5 1l off 100 – 101.2
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: took his winning streak to 5 by winning his first 3 starts last season; only won a 5phorse race on the AW in the next six though and his mark may still be a few lbs high to start another streak being 8lbs above best winning turf mark.

I have a question about the going for Count D’orsay and wonder about the return to 5f in the vase of Aplomb. Likewise I don’t think Leodis Dream will be in the hunt today. The two that interest me most are Makanah and Stone Of Destiny. With Balding starting the season at breakneck pace we can take it that his horses are fit, and in that case I’ll take Stone Of Destiny from Makanah and perhaps Aplomb to fill out the frame.

Newmarket 16.45 Cl 2 Hcap 97 (96.8) 7f gd/fm – 8 Run

Nahaarr 4-8-9 (93) Dr 6 (101.5)
’19 record: 4/0/5
05/07/19 Cl 5 Hcap (52/73.0) 7f AW Chelm 9-13 1/10 F 1/4 6l off 81 – 57.2
10/08/19 Cl 2 Hcap (129/92.7) 7f gd/fm Nwmkt 8-13 11/10 F 3/6 2l off 93 – 82.5
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W);
Minus: class;
Verdict: suggestion that final race was just an aberration, as he’d already won over C&D;
Qaysar 5-9-7 (105) Dr 8 (113.9)
’19 record: 4/2/11
14/9/19 Cl 2 Hcap (156/99.7) 8f gd/fm Donc 9-10 13/8 1/3 0.1l off 104 – 106.9
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W);
Minus:
Verdict: carried 9-7 off 95 when he beat Nahaarr (-8) at Newmarket in August, but won twice more and finished in the top half of the field in the competitive Bet365 Challenge Cup at Ascot; runs off a lb more than when winning at Doncaster; can’t ignore.
Blown By The Wind 4-9-2 (100) Dr 3 (100.6)
’19 record: 1/2/9
14/10/19 Cl 2 Hcap (124/92.4) 7f sf Muss 9-0 3/1 1/9/3l off 93 – 88.6
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F);
Minus:
Verdict: good first 2 runs and then mark broached 3 figures and struggled till working mark back down to 93 at Musselburgh; however, back up to 100 to start this season.
Pogo 4-9-5 (103) Dr 7 (103.5)
’19 record: 2/0/7
23/08/19 Cl 2 Hcap (636/92.3) 8f gd/fm York 9-3 12/1 1/16 0.25 off 99 – 94.5
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W);
Minus:
Verdict: 2 wins last season came over 8f and he may be better at that trip.
They obviously expect Nahaarr to overcome his setback and he may well do. However, at the price Qasar offers a little more value and is taken for the win, with Nahaarr as a saver and perhaps Pogo to follow them home.

Newmarket 17.55 Cl 2 Hcap 97 (97.4) 12f gd/fm – 9 Run

Calculation 4-8-9 (1) Dr 4 (90.8)
’19 record: 3/0/6
24/08/19 Cl 3 Hcap (104/85.2) 13.5f AW Chelm 8-13 4/5F 1/4 6l off 84 – 71.8
Plus:
Minus: class; going (?); distance; course (?);
Verdict: progressive in winning 3 in a row over 13.5f to 14.5f in rising class, but there it stopped and weakened approaching final furlong when upped to Cl 2 at Haydock; dropped back to 12f today, but something to prove.
Deja 5-9-4 (100) Dr 1 (105.6)
‘19 record: 1/0/2
03/06/19 Cl 3 Hcap (94/89.9) 12f AW Kemp 9-6 5/1 1/7 3.5l off 93 – 85.5
21/11/19 Cl 2 Hcap (136/95.2) 12.5f AW Nwcst 9-9 5/2 5/8 1.75l off 100 – 95.6
Plus: distance (W);
Minus: class; going; course;
Verdict: 6 races in 3 year, but he’s won 4 of them; only time in gd/fm was on his debut when he wasn’t beaten far; can’t make much of his record in Cl 2 as his only attempt was after a 5-month break and he wasn’t beaten far; possibilities.
Indianapolis 5-9-4 (100) Dr 8 (107.4)
‘19 record: 2/2/7
08/10/19 Cl 2 Hcap (126/97.8) 12f hv Leic 9-5 9/1 1/4 1.75l off 97 – 97.4
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: cheekpieces proved the key and won 2 of his last 3 starts after they were fitted, raised 3lbs for latest win and faces a tougher field today; nevertheless, is proven at the distance if not the track, and not entirely ignored.
Rise Hall 5-9-2 (98) Dr 6 (101.2)
’19 record: 2/2/6
27/07/19 Cl 3 Hcap (91/90.6) 10f gd Nwmk 10-0 7/2 1/8 1.25l off 96 – 89.2
Plus: class (W); going (W); course (W);
Minus: distance (?)
Verdict: generally consistent at 10f save for his last run when he’d obviously one over the top; course winner and also on the ground, the only thing to question is the trip.
Rock Eagle 5-9-4 (100) Dr 3 (96.1)
’19 record: 0/0/1
12/10/18 Cl 2 Hcap (747/94.5) 12f gd/fm Nwmkt 8-7 3/1 1/11 0.5l off 92 – 86.1
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W);
Minus:
Verdict: sole race last season was when finishing L/4 in a Listed race at Goodwood; based on previous season was improving winning 3/5 and signing off by taking the Old Rowley Cup here; where that leaves him I don’t know.
Nate The Great 4-8-13 (95) Dr 9 (?)
’19 record: 0/2/5
Plus: class (F+); going (W); course (F);
Minus: distance;
Verdict: first race for Balding after leaving Archie Watson and has been gelded; two good races last season 3rd in the Derby trial at Lingfield and Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket, after winning 2/5 as 2yo; again, where that leaves him…..

Not a race for speculation as there are too many imponderables.

[omaha69]

hi all

for group races do we like speed or ran to?

just looking at palace house 5f last 12 months
judical on speed
shades of blue on ran to

others on ratings from timeform and rpr
major jumbo
moss gill
far above

interesting to see what wins it before look at the guineas..