Throwing caution to the wind!!!

[LoveWinners]

Well 2 placed money landed and a winner so no harm done again.

Cheers Boss, not sure i would have played at the 5/1 though so alls well that ends well.

Daz power ratings were created a few years back and solely based on patternform figures only with no other considerations, i had a thread where i tested them for a while just backing top rated and over a decent sample shows a profit backing blind.


onto day3

we start with another competitive handicap and its where my Nb of the day runs. Tritonic looks the type to do better this year and 8/1 ew seems fair enough in my eyes. The runs in the group 3 contest was slightly disapointing as always looked like a step up in trip would be the way to go after winning 2 lesser contests maybe it was just the combination of tougher contest on the slower ground ? he had acquitted behind at newbury and that wasnt a fluke so if fit enough to do justice? then its fair enough price to take.


150 Wolferton Stakes

100 - Fox tal
99.2 - Regal Reality
97.4 - Sir Dragonet
97.3 Dubai Warrior 12/1
96.8 - Crossed Baton
96.3 - Aloe Vera

id punt top rated at 4s+ but i am on 4th rated Dubai Warrior as decent ew price again like others this week although my nap will be bucking the trend as its a shorty.


3:35 - Gold Cup

100 - Stradivarius
96.8 Cross Counter
96.4 Nayef Road
96.4 Technician
96.0 Moonlight Spirit
94.7 Mekong
93.9 Withhold
91.6 Prince Of Arran


I believe Nayef Road is the clear bet here @14's a small bet to try to fill a place but win nee a miss fire from top rated to collect in full.

4:10 - Britannia Stakes

Finest Sound is my very strong fancy in this and gets the nap vote, id consider it even at 5/2 which sounds mad in a 24 runner race but im keen here so 7/2 is fine. this screams of a Ostilio repeat.

[Daznvern]

So what time frame is the power ratings?

Is it just a case of setting 2 years plus and click ran to for the order. ?

[LoveWinners]

hi, daz a quick answer to that is no.. if i did that wouldnt order of just todays ratings of the 150 races i put up be

2020-06-18 Ascot 1:50 - Wolferton Stakes (Listed Race) (Class1) �29,600 Good 1m1f212y How to use PatternForm | Pace PaceV2 PaceV3 Stats
Finishing Position (> 9th = 0)

ran to normalised ................................power rating
100 - Regal Reality ...............................99.2
97 - Sir Dragonet ...................................97.4
97 - Fox Tal [2]........................................100
96 - Dream Castle [10]
96 - Forest Ranger [4]
95 - Walkinthesand [1]
93 - Extra Elusive [6]
93 - Mountain Angel [5]
93 - Dubai Warrior [3] ................................ 97.3
90 - Prince Eiji [16]
90 - King Ottokar [8]
90 - Mountain Hunter [13]
89 - Crossed Baton [9] ................................96.8
86 - Bubble And Squeak [15]
86 - Aloe Vera [14] ..................................96.3
82 - Cockalorum [12]




as we can see the order isnt even close and the scores are way off so im unsure how you considered this? although i wish that it was as simple as backing top lifetime ran to figure as would save me a lot of time and hey who knows may even be better than my power ratings

[LoveWinners]

3 2nds from the 3 that ran, no harm done again although finding a handicap plot to only get done but what looks a smart horse is always frustrating


only races i looked at in the shape of the hardwicke , Queen's Vase


Ascot 3:00 - Hardwicke Stakes

Hamish get the nb selection ew 8/1, progressive last year and will handle the cut...6/1 would be where i landed on its price should be.

4:10 - Queen's Vase
Born With Pride is the nap in the queens vase, Thrown in at listed level on slow ground and that for has worked out. looks a nice prospect in this and im hopeful of a big run


4:40 - Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes

100 - Durston
99.7 - Deja
99.4 - West End Charmer
99.1 - Johnny Drama
99.0 - Scarlet Dragon
98.9 - Indianapolis

second rated Deja ew 9/1 looks a value play here but not the value play, that would go to Scarlet Dragon but even 40/1 didnt temp me when i saw 4 and 5yrs recent record in this race so i feel deja is value and is unexposed enough to have some upside.

[crispian]

4.40 Ascot - Scarlet dragon , well spotted by Love Winners ; what a cracking ride by Holly Doyle to win; (in hindsight) using patternform that 33/1 winner was top in the main columns (speed,multi ,OR,Ran to ) using the look back to 13 months ( and class 1 and 2 ) ; to be honest i would also use the NH/Flat which would have taken scarlet dragon away

[LoveWinners]

A little disappointing with just the placed runner in second to top value pick i disregarded...@chrispian the power ratings are based on code form (not jumps in this case) and was still only 1lb off top rated in fact 5 horses were within the 1lb range i.e 99 -100 and would have landed the £3,703.90 trifecta for a £60 outlay but im still happy i got the place money as wasnt a disaster on the day, i had entirely a stress free low stakes ascot so far but only because the amount of placed runners but had a few managed a win it would have been great (although nothing but lucky as isolated meeting) i never really studied enough due to the times we are in so its just a bit of fun.



2:25 - Coronation Stakes

100 - Alpine Star
99 - Sharing
98.9 - Quadrilateral
98.4 - Cloak Of Spirits
98.2 - Run Wild
98.1 - So Wonderful
96 - Love Locket

A tight event that i considered passing on here but i feel 2nd rated sharing will drift out to 7/1+ tomorrow and will be overlooked in this and only a bet for value for small win bet , its a interesting race and closer to watching than betting big so small play for me.


Pinatubo gets the nb of the day to bounce back in the St James's Palace @15/8 as i would put it around 11/8 myself.

Hello Youmzain is the nap vote in the Diamond Jubilee, i did also place a very small ew on Breathtaking Look @401 with pp as a pure value play also that easily covers the win bet of HY if it manages to place


Tinto is top rated (100))from the fav (99.3) with Summerghand (99.1) Angel Alexander (99.0) Mr Lupton (98.7) Arecibo (98.7) Gulliver (98.7) but this is tight right in behind so i made a decision to go with the top rated Tinto @12/1 5places 1/4 seems fair enough to me.


That rounds out 2020 Royal ascot for me and must say its be rather enjoyable using the old power ratings to find some value plays this week, Until next time....

[LoveWinners]

well i have my nephew and niece coming for lunch today so will be fairly quick although food is in the over so not too much of a panic

as its eclipse day i had a deep look with the old power rating last night so thought id post up here with a few bets ive already had and why?

My nap is enable in the big one as no matter how i spin this its still value odds imo.
my nb is Liberty Beach in the charge as mentioned this in the ascot part of thread for different reasons this is a solid win option today unlike last time.


115

100 - Risk Of Thunder
97- Significantly
96.8 - Macho Pride 9/1

i dont like this race or many like it with this shape but i bet the 3rd rated each way here for value and still as big as 9/1 remains one id be happy to still put up here, the fav is strong on ratings though but value ew on 3rd is the way to go imo.


2:25
100 - Cross Counter
96 - Dashing Willoughby
96 - Withhold

Cross counter is a clear play on ratings but i chose to not play here as i simply never get this horse right so even if 6lb clear id swerve it tbh.


300
100- Dark Vision
99.8 - Montatham
98.3 - Mutasaamy
98.2 - Acquitted
98.0 - Marronnier
97.7 - Gallipoli 28/1
97.2 - Via Serendipity


the top 2 have a nice break on the numbers for such a race but it doesn't reflect the sheer % they take out of the book so i was looking for value against them.. now the trouble was the 3rd and 4th rated i would have slightly shorter but not enough for me to part with my money and i want a decent price one here and landed on Gallipoli who is available at 28/1 ew.