Throwing caution to the wind!!!

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!

Postby martinkil » Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:35 pm

based on the official ratings and the prices I've had a FC - Battaash / Equilateral

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!

Postby martinkil » Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:42 pm

Another head bob went my way - I could get used to this :)

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!

Postby martinkil » Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:06 pm

My EW in the next is Magic Lily , and I've done a small R/fc with your Wasmya for a nice payout - I hope your one has it's bobbing head on!!

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!

Postby martinkil » Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:32 pm

My EW in the last is - Coeur De Lion - 14/1 - 5th in last years race off a 2lb higher rating when 7/1 co-fav - will be fitter than many with his winter campaign.

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!

Postby martinkil » Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:55 pm

My best start to Ascot week for a while :)

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
Contact:

Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!

Postby LoveWinners » Wed Jun 17, 2020 12:04 am

Nice one boss. That last race was nasty for watch for one of us and glorious for the other :) looking at the sectionals and the start (1st furlong sectional then overall finish time for top 4 ) of my nb is too frustrating but thats racing but 3/5 selections in the frame and a nightmare trip for another but scraped through the day.


onto day2 where i am not jumping for joy at the racing on offer but that wont stop me taking some shots again

100 - Zhui Feng
99.8 - Ouzo
99.5 - Maydanny
99.2 - Salayel


we kick of with another tight handicap and i do respect 2nd rated who could be the one but the price isnt what id look for. 4th rated is the one for me at 14/1.


225
Win O'Clock ew is my nb of the day.

300

100 - Japan
99.0 - Barney Roy
99.0 - Addeybb
98.2 - Headman
98.1 - Lord North
97.6 - Mehdaayih
90.3 - Bangkok

Lord North looks the value here , 8/1 for small win bet at the prices.

335

BELL ROCK is my ew nap of the day here although short this horse looks just the type for this event.

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!

Postby martinkil » Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:10 am

Nothing crawled off the page let alone jumped, so it will be minimum EW combi bets unless some inspiration is forthcoming!!

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!

Postby martinkil » Wed Jun 17, 2020 12:05 pm

a bit speculative here, but in the 1.15 the bottom weight Johnston/Fanning - Smile A Mile - at 40/1 1/5 first 6 BOG with skybet might be worth a little EW. Had a run on the AW in match when 2nd in a 31k race at wolves. Has Zhui Feng on the stands side rails to pull that group along.

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!

Postby martinkil » Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:14 pm

Nice winner with Lord North there sir - well backed as well.

My speculative choice was way off the mark in the first (unlike your good 2nd) and for my other EW sel today I'll aim nearer the front if the market.
In the 4.40 I quite like - Alright Sunshine 9/1 (1/4 first 4 bookies) - progressive in handicaps last year and started this year in 101. Ran 5th btn a little over 7l in the group 3 Sagaro stakes (run this year at Newcastle AW) and has been raised 4lb to 105 - it was a good run against solid yardsticks and has a good chance to get placed at least here today.

Daznvern
Posts: 59
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 5:32 pm

Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!

Postby Daznvern » Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:20 pm

LoveWinners wrote:This is less than ideal to lace up the betting boots but its bloody royal ascot so bollocks to it ,lets try to smash some profits and if it fails well we know how wonderful hindsight is.


Im not entirely sure the best approach TBH so maybe ill draw from the old original power ratings add in some intuition so basically a mixed bag and adjust as the days go by.

115 Buckingham Palace Handicap

We kick off with the ultra competitive 24 runner 7f handicap.

ratings
100 - Kaeso
99.8 - Cliffs Of Capri
99.7 - Ebury
99.6 Mutamaasik 9/1 bog
99.5- Flaming Spear
99.5 - Daarik
99.5 Glen Shiel

99.1 Firmament
99.1 Motakhayyel
99.0 Greenside

I would like to find a runner who will be somewhere in the middle 8 stalls and 4th rated slots in well in this race and think looks the ideal type for this particular assignment. Its always hard to know what horses are well in but this one clearly is due to looking like holding just enough back for himself until things look to be going wrong, the will to win the last small field 7f race was what i liked as cruised into it got headed and battled back, now a huge field is the unknown but i feel it will be the making of him if fit? he will be able to travel into it and get serious latter in the race than last time, and the likely bunch at the furlong pole and still on the bridle hopefully the mental toughness already shown will be a asset and be bang there at the finish. A worry is that jim has likely chosen a similar unexposed typed in Motakhayyel and im a little surprised but then again the power ratings had a conversion to a 6(lbs) spread so its not like id be super confident about anything here, Top rated should run well although slammed by the likely fav Daarik Lto is be inclined to believe he will get MUCH closer tomorrow although the fav could also step up on that performance but i would be surprised if lass than 3L isn't closed between them.



Wheres these power ratings from?


Return to “Race Discussion”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests