This is less than ideal to lace up the betting boots but its bloody royal ascot so bollocks to it ,lets try to smash some profits and if it fails well we know how wonderful hindsight is.
Im not entirely sure the best approach TBH so maybe ill draw from the old original power ratings add in some intuition so basically a mixed bag and adjust as the days go by.
115 Buckingham Palace Handicap
We kick off with the ultra competitive 24 runner 7f handicap.
ratings
100 - Kaeso
99.8 - Cliffs Of Capri
99.7 - Ebury
99.6 Mutamaasik 9/1 bog
99.5- Flaming Spear
99.5 - Daarik
99.5 Glen Shiel
99.1 Firmament
99.1 Motakhayyel
99.0 Greenside
I would like to find a runner who will be somewhere in the middle 8 stalls and 4th rated slots in well in this race and think looks the ideal type for this particular assignment. Its always hard to know what horses are well in but this one clearly is due to looking like holding just enough back for himself until things look to be going wrong, the will to win the last small field 7f race was what i liked as cruised into it got headed and battled back, now a huge field is the unknown but i feel it will be the making of him if fit? he will be able to travel into it and get serious latter in the race than last time, and the likely bunch at the furlong pole and still on the bridle hopefully the mental toughness already shown will be a asset and be bang there at the finish. A worry is that jim has likely chosen a similar unexposed typed in Motakhayyel and im a little surprised but then again the power ratings had a conversion to a 6(lbs) spread so its not like id be super confident about anything here, Top rated should run well although slammed by the likely fav Daarik Lto is be inclined to believe he will get MUCH closer tomorrow although the fav could also step up on that performance but i would be surprised if lass than 3L isn't closed between them.
Throwing caution to the wind!!!
-
- Posts: 1198
- Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
- Location: Paraguay
- Contact:
-
- Posts: 1198
- Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
- Location: Paraguay
- Contact:
Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!
150 Queen Anne Stakes
Ratings
100 - Mustashry
98.7 - Circus Maximus
98.3 - Fox Chairman
98.2 - Mohaather 12/1 bog
98.0 - Plumatic
97.8 - Turjomaan
97.8 Roseman
97.45 - Billesdon Brook
96.7 Terebellum
96.7 Duke Of Hazzard
96.6 Skardu #
Rest 96.4- 94.9
I sat looking at this race for quite a while the other day and came to the conclusion i want to take this fav on tomorrow. Its a combination of things really but its not from a biased POV and to make sure i looked through my betting records and im in profit backing the horse so that reassured me im not taking it on just coz. The price vs probability (even while lacking confidence in anything in current betting terms) and i think my estimates could be a few lbs off and still be the correct decision, i created a book for example and played a few scenarios out to see how this could be? i could simply bet 5 runners who ar 14/1 - 33/1 and still get a better price...I wouldnt but if those horses are Skardu ,Mustashry ,Space Traveller, Roseman and Plumatic for example i'd rather do so than simply back the fav in this at the price so that reaffirms it for me.
im going to go for a flyer here in the 4th rated here at the prices as i just feel this horse has plenty more to offer as a 4 yr old and i think this will be run at a searching pace which could just well be the the answer to a very interesting race.
Ratings
100 - Mustashry
98.7 - Circus Maximus
98.3 - Fox Chairman
98.2 - Mohaather 12/1 bog
98.0 - Plumatic
97.8 - Turjomaan
97.8 Roseman
97.45 - Billesdon Brook
96.7 Terebellum
96.7 Duke Of Hazzard
96.6 Skardu #
Rest 96.4- 94.9
I sat looking at this race for quite a while the other day and came to the conclusion i want to take this fav on tomorrow. Its a combination of things really but its not from a biased POV and to make sure i looked through my betting records and im in profit backing the horse so that reassured me im not taking it on just coz. The price vs probability (even while lacking confidence in anything in current betting terms) and i think my estimates could be a few lbs off and still be the correct decision, i created a book for example and played a few scenarios out to see how this could be? i could simply bet 5 runners who ar 14/1 - 33/1 and still get a better price...I wouldnt but if those horses are Skardu ,Mustashry ,Space Traveller, Roseman and Plumatic for example i'd rather do so than simply back the fav in this at the price so that reaffirms it for me.
im going to go for a flyer here in the 4th rated here at the prices as i just feel this horse has plenty more to offer as a 4 yr old and i think this will be run at a searching pace which could just well be the the answer to a very interesting race.
-
- Posts: 1198
- Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
- Location: Paraguay
- Contact:
Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!
335 King's Stand Stakes
Ratings
100 - Battaash
94 - Glass Slippers
92.8 - Liberty Beach 12/1 bog
92.3 - Equilateral
92.0 - Kurious
92.0 - Shades Of Blue
No Surprises here but im happy to play 3rd rated Liberty Beach ew here, Its always hard to take a stand against a dominant horse but this horse was unlucky here last year as was on the wrong side of the track and i mark that performance up a few lbs. Now hasnt bettered that performance since in my eyes but the shape of this race could be perfect as even though this shouldnt on paper be a burn up i actually think there might be a few that chance their arm and make this one and if so i feel the runner could go well if that happens so at the price i'd take the chance.
Ratings
100 - Battaash
94 - Glass Slippers
92.8 - Liberty Beach 12/1 bog
92.3 - Equilateral
92.0 - Kurious
92.0 - Shades Of Blue
No Surprises here but im happy to play 3rd rated Liberty Beach ew here, Its always hard to take a stand against a dominant horse but this horse was unlucky here last year as was on the wrong side of the track and i mark that performance up a few lbs. Now hasnt bettered that performance since in my eyes but the shape of this race could be perfect as even though this shouldnt on paper be a burn up i actually think there might be a few that chance their arm and make this one and if so i feel the runner could go well if that happens so at the price i'd take the chance.
-
- Posts: 1198
- Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
- Location: Paraguay
- Contact:
Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!
410 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes Nap Wasmya 8/1
This is the one i selected as the strongest for the day due to my feelings about this horse running on quicker ground, steps up to a mile , toungue strap applied and dettori up. 8/1 seem generous strong ew play. 5/1 and id still strongly consider it
This is the one i selected as the strongest for the day due to my feelings about this horse running on quicker ground, steps up to a mile , toungue strap applied and dettori up. 8/1 seem generous strong ew play. 5/1 and id still strongly consider it
-
- Posts: 1198
- Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
- Location: Paraguay
- Contact:
Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!
440 Ascot Stakes
Smart Champion is my NB for day 1
Looks the type to get better with age and is unexposed and 12/1 looks worth a ew play for 5 places 1/5.
good luck to fellow forum members and hope you are lucky with yours.
Smart Champion is my NB for day 1
Looks the type to get better with age and is unexposed and 12/1 looks worth a ew play for 5 places 1/5.
good luck to fellow forum members and hope you are lucky with yours.
Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!
In the first I'm EW with - Cliffs of Capri -
best of luck to us both
best of luck to us both
Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!
We should have had faith in Jim's judgement. Anyway I placed, and have an EW double with Roseman in the next 1/5 odd first 4
Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!
I see your - Mohaather - has been backed off the boards 12-1 down to 5-1 general now
-
- Posts: 1198
- Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
- Location: Paraguay
- Contact:
Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!
yes markets made adjustments closer to what i would have had and the fav drifted around where id have had also so just need the results to improve boss
Re: Throwing caution to the wind!!!
Roseman scraped home 4th which was good enough - nice place double 20/5 and 14/5.
I also backed the fav based on my new "Market Order" card. Circus Maximus had been fav just twice in it's life - and won both times, so when it went fav close to the off I had a little on the nose - scraped home on the nod - must be my lucky day.
I also backed the fav based on my new "Market Order" card. Circus Maximus had been fav just twice in it's life - and won both times, so when it went fav close to the off I had a little on the nose - scraped home on the nod - must be my lucky day.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests