Saturday 4th July

[Devasteve]

Getting no luck at present, but that’s the way it goes!

Epsom 15.00 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (93.0) 10f – 16 Run (15 at best)

Last year: 374 (92.8) gd – 11 ran
Mountain Angel 11/4 F 5-9-4 (101) Dr 6 by 1 l from Jazeel 7/1 4-8-8 (91) Dr 8
Mr Scaramanga 33/1 5-8-0 (83) Dr 5 was 1.75l 3rd

Tinandali 4-9-8 (102) Dr 9 (101.0)
’19 record: 1/0/4 ’20 record: 0/1/2
22/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/89.1) 10f gd Ayr 9-7 7/1 2/9 0.75 l off 100 – 95.0
chased leaders, led over 1f out, headed towards finish
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (12 days);
Minus: course (?); up 1lb (wt); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: transfer from Dermot Weld where he won over 8/10f ; hcap debut for current yard at Ayr 12 days ago, where he might have just needed the run; however, promising jockey and might be thereabout despite the high weight.
Ironclad 4-8-6 (86) Dr 2 (95.0)
’19 record: 2/1/6
20/07/19 Cl 3 Hcap (91/85.0) 10f gd Nwmkt 9-2 9/2 1/5 0.75 l off 81 – 73.0
tracked leader, led entering the final furlong, ridden and ran on
Plus: going (W); distance (W); down 16lbs (wt); drop in trip;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class; 334-day break;
Verdict: showed improvement to win at Beverley and on hcap debut at Newmarket; however, subsequent start over 12f at Kempton seemed to stretch him; has a lengthy break to overcome, and needed the first few races last season.
Johnny Drama 5-9-3 (97) Dr 8 (113.6)
’19 record 2/2/7 ‘20 record: 0/0/1
12/10/19 Cl 2 Hcap (187/100.9) 10.5f sf York 8-13 2/1 F 2/7 3 l off 99 – 102.6
behind, headway over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong, not pace to challenge
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); recent run (15 days); down 2lbs (OR); drop in trip; first-time tongue-tie;
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: won twice for Ger Lyons last season before transferring to his current yard where he made the frame on two occasions; season debut in Duke of Edinburgh stakes at Ascot, but not for the first time suggested he doesn’t get 12f, will strip fitter today and is fitted with a first-time tongue-tie.

The key trends for this are normally 4/5yo who‘ve had a recent run, although this year that may not be as important. They’re normally towards the top of the betting, and most are low drawn, certainly less than 10. Of my top five trends there nothing that passes on all, so maybe this will be a year when they all fail! Of the three I think have the best chance, I’m prepared to take Ironclad on as he hasn’t had a race and he might just be a little short of fitness, although he is the kind of improver who usually wins. I’m very wary of Tinandali, as O’Meara does so well with this type, but on this occasion I’m looking for the tongue-tie to do the trick for Johnny Drama who’s also Irish-bred like 11 of the last 17 winners. So it’s Johnny Drama from Tinandali with Ironclad filling out the frame.

Epsom 17.35 Cl 3 93 (88.8) 7f gd – 16 Run (15 at best)

Last year – (Cl 2) 311 (90.7) 7f gd – 12 ran
Corazon Espinada 7/1 4-8-13 (82) Dr 2 by 0.05 l from Hateya 9/2 4-9-11 (94) Dr 1
Alemaratalyoum 14/1 5-9-11 (94) Dr 5 was 0.6 l 4th

Muntadab 8-8-13 (87) Dr 6 (99.4)
’19 record: 0/1/6 ’20 record: 0/3/4
01/07/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/86.2) 7f gd Muss 9-2 15/8 F 2/6 0.02 l off 87 – 84.4
led, ridden and headed inside final 2f, chased leader, ridden and rallied inside final furlong, led close home, caught post
Plus: class (W+); going (F); distance (W); from run lto (3 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: didn’t win last years, but has been in fine shape and only just denied three days ago at Musselburgh; can return quickly and in with a chance.
Hateya 5-9-7 (95) Dr 5 (101.1)
’19 record: 0/4/7 ‘20 record: 0/1/4
04/06/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/91.7) 7f gd/fm Newmkt 9-7 18/1 4.12 1.75 l off 95 – 94.1
close up, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent race (21 days); down 2 classes;
Minus:
Verdict: 7f at Epsom suits, but only ran only once over the distance last season when just denied off 1lb less; promising return at Newmarket and then went to listed class lto, must have a chance today.

It seems my pair are attracting all the attention, but I can’t help that and I going for Hateya from Muntadab.