Sunday 5th July

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Sunday 5th July

Postby Devasteve » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:13 am

Well I managed to get a winner yesterday, even if it was a favourite, things are looking up!

Sandown 15.00 Cl 2 Hcap 187 (95.9) 8f gd – 11 Run (10 at best)
3yo = 9lbs wfa allowance

Last year: 462 (96.7) gd/fm – 13 ran
Mojito 4/1 F 5-9-1 (108) Dr 1 by 1.25 l from Escobar 12/1 5-9-5 (98) Dr 9
Via Serendipity 8/1 5-9-4 (97) Dr 6 was 3.1 l 6th

Montatham 4-9-3 (100) Dr 6 (113.2)
’19 record: 2/1/5 ’20 record: 1/1/2
17/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (485/103.4) 8f gd Ascot 8-12 8/1 2.23 1.25 l off 97 – 102.2
raced centre to near side, held up, headway centre of group chasing leaders over 2f out, kept on disputing 2nd over 1f out, plugged on inside final furlong
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (18 days);
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs (wt); up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: still improving and followed up Cl 2 win at Newmarket with a battling 2nd in the Hunt Cup; meets Dark Vision on 6lbs better terms and that might be enough to swing it.
Dark Vision 4-9-9 (106) Dr 9 (112.5)
‘19 record: 0/2/11 ’20 record: 1/1/2
17/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (485/103.4) 8f gd Ascot 9-1 15/2 1/23 1.25 l off 100 – 107.5
held up in rear in centre, headway going well when not clear run and switched left 2f out, ran on to lead inside final furlong, soon clear
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (18 days);
Minus: course; up 9lbs (wt); up 6lbs (OR);
Verdict: changed animal this year and after narrowly being beaten at Newcastle on his return, showed he had what it takes to win when taking the Hunt Cup in fine style; raised 6lbs for that, but likely needs a breather before taking the next step in his career.

It hard to oppose the first two home in the Royal Hunt Cup as they look to be some way ahead of the rest. Mutasaamy may well improve further back on turf and the 3yo Acquitted is interesting if he can prove that Ascot was a fluke. However, nobody has form in the book like Dark Vision and Montatham and this time I fancy Montatham may be better at the weights though there won’t be much in it.

Haydock 15.15 Cl 2 Hcap 374 (98.9) 12f sf – 18 Run (16 at best)

Last year: 622 (97.9) gd/fm – 17 ran
Kelly’s Dino 14/1 6-8-12 (97) Dr 19 by 1 l from Lucius Tiberius 14/1 4-9-2 (101) Dr 1
Indianapolis 14/1 4-8-10 (95) Dr 2 was 3.75 l 4th

Indianapolis 5-9-4 (99) Dr 9 (105.9)
’19 record: 2/2/7 ’20 record: 0/0/2
19/6/20 Cl 2 Hcap (388/99.7) 12f sf Ascot 9-4 7/1 5/14 7.8 l off 99 – 90.1
chased leader, ridden 3f out, lost 2nd 2f out, faded inside final furlong.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (16 days);
Minus: going;
Verdict: finished 4th in last year’s renewal off 95 and went on to win 2 of his last 3 starts; looked to need his first 2 races although was drawn the wrong side at Ascot; interesting with visor replacing cheekpieces.
Deja 5-9-10 (105) Dr 13 (104.2)
’19 record: 1/0/2 ’20 record: 0/1/1
19/6/20 Cl 2 Hcap (388/99.7) 12f sf Ascot 9-5 9/1 2/14 0.5 l off 100 – 100.2
not that well away, took 2f until prominent on inside, switched left and went 2nd 2f out, edged left over 1f out, led entering final furlong, headed 100yds out, held close home
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (16 days);
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs (wt); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: This will only be 8th start in 4years, so he hasn’t been that easy to train, even if he has won 4 of them, one of several coming from the Duke of Edinburgh when caught late by Scarlet Dragon winning for the first time in 4 years; given how fragile he’s been I’m not sure he can improve to win this.
Ranch Hand 4-9-4 (99) Dr 12 (103.4)
’19 record: 3/0/6 ’20 record: 0/0/1
17/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (226/100.8) 14f gd Ascot 9-4 5/1 6/16 7 l off 99 – 93.4
wore hood to post, tracked leaders on outside, pushed along 3f out, ridden 2f out, weakened inside final furlong
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (18 days); drop in trip;
Minus:
Verdict: won over 14f here on sf last season, but didn’t appear to appear the 18f of the Cesarewitch, looked in need of the run at Ascot and will likely strip fitter today, though whether the drop to 12f will suit is a matter for conjecture
Le Don De Vie 4-9-6 (101) Dr 19 (102.9)
’19 record: 3/0/5 ’20 record: 0/1/1
19/6/20 Cl 2 Hcap (388/99.7) 12f sf Ascot 9-6 11/1 4/14 5.5 l off 101 – 94.9
held up towards rear, switched left over 2f out, headway over 1f out, went 4th entering final furlong, kept on
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (F); form run lto (16 days);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: transfer from Balding’s yard mid-season last year and has yet to win over 12f, another who was close up in the Duke Of Edinburgh and like Indianapolis runs on the same terms.
The Trader 4-9-0 (95) Dr 1 (101.2)
’19 record: 0/3/11 ’20 record: 1/0/1
06/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/97.1) 12f gd Nwmkt 8-7 6/1 1/8 2.75 l off 89 – 87.2
made all, ridden 4 lengths clear entering final furlong, ran on
Plus: class (W); distance (W); form run lto (29 days);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 7lbs (wt); up 6lbs (OR);
Verdict: failed to score last year, although wasn’t tried at 12f till late; led all the way to score at Newmarket to open this season, but doubt he can do that here from stall 1.

As difficult as ever, and besides these one can make a case for Laffy and Babbo’s Boy, though I can’t see Scarlet Dragon completing the double as he hadn’t won since his 3yo days before coming late to snatch it from Deja. I’m a little worried whether Deja can make it with the extra weight and whether the drop back in trip will suit the likely favourite Ranch Hand. The Trader too, is passed over even though he represents the Johnston yard. I’m going to go with the other two that finished close up in the Duke of Edinburgh and try again off the same weights. I’m intrigued by the fitting of blinkers on Indianapolis and think he might well improve on last year’s fourth place finish, while Le Don De Vie might just edge out Ranch Hand.

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