I follow this board with great interest and respect all the posters for sharing their ideas and selections, I use the data on Patternform for develop some betting strategies for the UK racing, takes a bit of time to process the numbers, and I am now using the data to develop an approach to the Irish Racing, I thought I would post the selections I am getting in order to track how they perform
Monday 12 November 2018
13:20 Thurl Bellgrove 101.39%
13:55 Thurl Jake Peter 122.61%
15:00 Thurl Fintown Boy 102.24%
15:35 Thurl Whoyakodding 109.27%
There are 4 selections today, I have developed a 'Confidence' level for each runner and have included these, basically the higher the percentage the greater the chance of winning compared to the rest of the field in the race
I'll also post the SR & PL as I go, in order to monitor the performance of the approach
BWCIRE
Re: BWCIRE
Sorry for the delay Cat - you next post should be fine
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Re: BWCIRE
martinkil wrote:Sorry for the delay Cat - you next post should be fine
Thank you Martin, I'll keep posting
Catspajamas
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Re: BWCIRE
Wednesday 14 November 2018
12:20 Fairy Thecraicisninety 100%
12:20 Fairy Moonball 100%
12:50 Fairy Lord In Red 100%
13:25 Fairy Thekingofconnemara 100%
13:25 Fairy Night Sir 100%
13:55 Fairy Batts Rock 125%
14:30 Fairy Monbeg Worldwide 143%
15:35 Fairy Cant Be Done 120%
Stats to date:
Days 1
Win 2
BETS 2
SR% 50.00%
ROI% 41.55%
PL +1.66
12:20 Fairy Thecraicisninety 100%
12:20 Fairy Moonball 100%
12:50 Fairy Lord In Red 100%
13:25 Fairy Thekingofconnemara 100%
13:25 Fairy Night Sir 100%
13:55 Fairy Batts Rock 125%
14:30 Fairy Monbeg Worldwide 143%
15:35 Fairy Cant Be Done 120%
Stats to date:
Days 1
Win 2
BETS 2
SR% 50.00%
ROI% 41.55%
PL +1.66
Catspajamas
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Re: BWCIRE
Thursday 15 November 2018 - (Selections 11 Races 6)
TIME COURSE HORSE
12:50 Clon Salty Boy 195.52%
13:25 Clon Bridge Native 100.00%
13:55 Clon Small World 118.63%
14:30 Clon Chambord Du Lys 121.16%
14:30 Clon Capital Force 100.00%
15:00 Clon Kemboy 100.00%
15:00 Clon A Toi Phil 111.07%
15:00 Clon Rashaan 86.96%
15:35 Clon Camelia De Cotte 130.90%
15:35 Clon Dinaria Des Obeaux 98.84%
15:35 Clon Youcantcallherthat 100.00%
The 15:00 looks very competitive, hence could make a case for most runners in this race, though Clonmel looks quite competitive throughout the card today, so looks a challenge to to make the selections
One other stands out for me, though I'll not include this in the stats
13:55 Clon Time For Mabel
Stats
Days 2
Win 3
Bets 12
SR% 25.00%
ROI% -2.15%
Profit -0.26
TIME COURSE HORSE
12:50 Clon Salty Boy 195.52%
13:25 Clon Bridge Native 100.00%
13:55 Clon Small World 118.63%
14:30 Clon Chambord Du Lys 121.16%
14:30 Clon Capital Force 100.00%
15:00 Clon Kemboy 100.00%
15:00 Clon A Toi Phil 111.07%
15:00 Clon Rashaan 86.96%
15:35 Clon Camelia De Cotte 130.90%
15:35 Clon Dinaria Des Obeaux 98.84%
15:35 Clon Youcantcallherthat 100.00%
The 15:00 looks very competitive, hence could make a case for most runners in this race, though Clonmel looks quite competitive throughout the card today, so looks a challenge to to make the selections
One other stands out for me, though I'll not include this in the stats
13:55 Clon Time For Mabel
Stats
Days 2
Win 3
Bets 12
SR% 25.00%
ROI% -2.15%
Profit -0.26
Catspajamas
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Re: BWCIRE
Friday 16 November 2018
21:00 Dund Wavepoint
Only one selection tonight
Stats
Days 3
Win 6
Bets 23
SR% 26.09%
AWO 3.64
ROI% -9.79%
Profit -2.25
I have included Average Winning Odds - AWO - as ways to relate this to the SR%, at the moment the AWO is not high enough to get this in to profit, so either the AWO needs to increase or the SR%, though 26.09% is quite respectable if the AWO can increase
21:00 Dund Wavepoint
Only one selection tonight
Stats
Days 3
Win 6
Bets 23
SR% 26.09%
AWO 3.64
ROI% -9.79%
Profit -2.25
I have included Average Winning Odds - AWO - as ways to relate this to the SR%, at the moment the AWO is not high enough to get this in to profit, so either the AWO needs to increase or the SR%, though 26.09% is quite respectable if the AWO can increase
Catspajamas
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Re: BWCIRE
Saturday 17 November 2018
12:35 Punch Ben Dundee 100.00%
12:35 Punch Mall Dini 125.71%
12:35 Punch Scoir Mear 97.14%
14:55 Punch Paris Texas 100.00%
14:55 Punch A Place Apart 94.74%
14:55 Punch Due Reward 100.00%
Days 4
Win 6
Bets 24
SR% 25.00%
AWO 3.64
ROI% -13.55%
Profit -3.25
12:35 Punch Ben Dundee 100.00%
12:35 Punch Mall Dini 125.71%
12:35 Punch Scoir Mear 97.14%
14:55 Punch Paris Texas 100.00%
14:55 Punch A Place Apart 94.74%
14:55 Punch Due Reward 100.00%
Days 4
Win 6
Bets 24
SR% 25.00%
AWO 3.64
ROI% -13.55%
Profit -3.25
Catspajamas
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Re: BWCIRE
Sunday 18 November 2018
12:05 Punch Hurricane Darwin 101.46%
12:15 Cork Bantiss Jack 103.68%
12:35 Punch Jetez 107.78%
12:45 Cork Laverteen 107.36%
13:05 Punch Cecil Corbett 108.45%
13:20 Cork All The Chimneys 101.72%
13:40 Punch Nick Lost 126.07%
13:55 Cork Damut 101.58%
14:15 Punch Wicklow Brave 103.13%
14:30 Cork Definite Income 103.57%
14:50 Punch Los Alamos 114.03%
15:05 Cork Blast Of Koeman 102.67%
15:20 Punch Gigiplan Two Seven 113.72%
15:40 Cork Macs Legend 124.51%
15:55 Punch Mt Leinster 105.01%
Days 5
Win 7
Bets 30
SR% 23.33%
AWO 4.00
ROI% -11.40%
Profit -3.42
12:05 Punch Hurricane Darwin 101.46%
12:15 Cork Bantiss Jack 103.68%
12:35 Punch Jetez 107.78%
12:45 Cork Laverteen 107.36%
13:05 Punch Cecil Corbett 108.45%
13:20 Cork All The Chimneys 101.72%
13:40 Punch Nick Lost 126.07%
13:55 Cork Damut 101.58%
14:15 Punch Wicklow Brave 103.13%
14:30 Cork Definite Income 103.57%
14:50 Punch Los Alamos 114.03%
15:05 Cork Blast Of Koeman 102.67%
15:20 Punch Gigiplan Two Seven 113.72%
15:40 Cork Macs Legend 124.51%
15:55 Punch Mt Leinster 105.01%
Days 5
Win 7
Bets 30
SR% 23.33%
AWO 4.00
ROI% -11.40%
Profit -3.42
Catspajamas
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Re: BWCIRE
Wednesday 21 November 2018
17:30 Dundalk Hasselnott 150%
18:00 Dundalk Dream Sleep 150%
19:00 Dundalk Modern Love 100%
19:30 Dundalk Ar Saoirse 100%
20:00 Dundalk Brave Display 150%
These are the early declarations, in the event of any NR's at 11 AM I'll aim to update the selections
Stats
Days 6
Win 8
Bets 45
SR% 17.78%
AWO 4.12
ROI% -30.38%
Profit -13.67
AWO has increased slightly but SR% decreased, hence PL still negative, Longest Loosing Run (LLR) so far is 11, I have tweaked the selection criteria slightly so will see how this performs
17:30 Dundalk Hasselnott 150%
18:00 Dundalk Dream Sleep 150%
19:00 Dundalk Modern Love 100%
19:30 Dundalk Ar Saoirse 100%
20:00 Dundalk Brave Display 150%
These are the early declarations, in the event of any NR's at 11 AM I'll aim to update the selections
Stats
Days 6
Win 8
Bets 45
SR% 17.78%
AWO 4.12
ROI% -30.38%
Profit -13.67
AWO has increased slightly but SR% decreased, hence PL still negative, Longest Loosing Run (LLR) so far is 11, I have tweaked the selection criteria slightly so will see how this performs
Catspajamas
Re: BWCIRE
These all look great selections if you ever use SpeedRatings.com then you may want to look at dundalk it is a free service on Wednesdays only.
What filters do use use for dundalk I use nassandnavan but could use some advice on other Irish courses
What filters do use use for dundalk I use nassandnavan but could use some advice on other Irish courses
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