Advanced Analytics

It appears that some posters want to put selections up without any reasoning. This is the forum where they can be posted. "Selection only" post found elsewhere will be deleted
LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
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Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:22 pm

Long time no post...Now my medical condition is somewhat on the improve :) i will be posting up selections that my predictive model throws up for consideration, Until i manage to correctly convert the ratings to value pricing it will be a simple consideration and not bet recommendation because betting without even a ballpark figure of value of runners data points is like pissing in the wind :lol:


This model is based on a very simple set of data from patternform and the racing post. The model should 'learn on the job' and improve as the data is recorded and make adjustments although as it stands i will have to enter some information manually but the recommendations will be to bet to win (BTW) , bet to place (BTP) , Bet to win and place (BTWP) dutch, lay (i will simply look for top 2 in betting for recording purpose as there is just too many per day for comfort) or Pass based on actual total score. This isn't ideal as the recommendations should be on perceived value vs market but its based on historical end total scores but for the purpose of a live trial while my health is steady i feel it will add some value to the forum, Atleast i hope so.



Brighton
13:35 BTW Saint Helena and EDGE 1 UNIT
14:10 BTP Groundnut 1 UNIT
14:40 BTWP Baltic Prince 0.5 Unit each
15:10 Dutch Papou Tony, Ixelles Diamond and Lutine Charlie 1 Unit total
15:45 LAY Marie Of Lyon (3/1 favorite) 1 UNIT
16:15 BTP Kilim 1 UNIT
16:45 BTP Spiritual Star and Appease 0.5 Units each
17:17 Dutch Sandfrankskipsgo,Pearl Noir and Zipedeedodah 1 Unit total

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:44 pm

Carlisle

13:45 Dutch Whipphound, Yes You , Passionatta 2.5 Units total
14:20 BTWP Mcvicar 1 Unit each
14:50 Pass
15:20 BTW Book of Dreams 1 unit
15:55 LAY Powerful Society 1 unit
16:25 Dutch Redarna,Specialv and Gilmer 1 unit
16:55 BTW Relevant 1.5 Units
17:25 Dutch Toboggans Fire, Polar Forest. Topamichiand Abushamah 1.5 Units

LoveWinners
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Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:57 pm

worcester

14:00 BTW Abbeygrey 1 unit
14:30 BTW Dotties Dilema 1 unit
15:00 Pass
15:30 Pass
16:05 BTW Hatcher 1.5 units
16:35 PAss
17:05 Dutch Banditry and Prendergast Hill 1 unit

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:24 pm

Galway
14:25 BTP The Major General 1 unit
14:55 BTW Suncroft 1 unit
15:25 BTW Contingency 1 unit
16:00 BTP Youngnedofthehill and Kilcaragh Boy 0.5 pt each
16:30 Pass

Pass the rest of meeting

tafflizgreg
Posts: 167
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2015 10:49 am

Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby tafflizgreg » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:35 pm

Some good selections shame they lays cost you

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:40 pm

sorry for the unintended delay, yes the lays cost us dearly but no harm done. lets see what today brings us?

DP
13:45 BTWP Lex Talionis 1 unit each
14:15 BTP Mischief Maisy 0.5 units
14:50 BTWP Secret Approach 0.75 units each
15:20 BTWP Ashjan 1 unit each
15:55 Dutch Bold Sky and Tranquil Magic 1 unit total
16:25BTWP both Dinnies Vinnie and Wilde n Wide 0.5 units each both
17:00 BTW Roseriver Has

Newbury
13:20 miss ( too late posting)
13:50 BTW Beshaayir 2 units BTP and Foreseeable Future 1 unit
14:25 BTW Lethal Lunch 1 unit
14:55 Dutch Danehill Kodiac and Eye of The Storm 1 unit total
15:30 BTP Knight To Behold 0.75 units
16:00 Dutch Tabarrak , Second Thought and Urban Fox 3 units
16:35 Miss
17:05 BTWP Breden and Red Royalist 1 units each for both

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:51 pm

N/A
14:00 ?Miss
14:35 BTW Braqueur Dor 1.5 units and BTP Dharoos 1 unit
15:05 BTW Amour de Nuit 1.5 units
15:40 miss
16:10 BTP Iniesta 1 Unit
16:45 BTW Gingili 1 unit
17:15 BTW Point Of Principle 2 Units

tafflizgreg
Posts: 167
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2015 10:49 am

Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby tafflizgreg » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:39 pm

love winners some top picks today missed them unfortunately but will be keeping my eyes out for em now

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:14 pm

thank you tafflizgreg , had a decent return yesterday that pushed the second day passed the +25 unit mark just using betfair sp's (incl 5% commission rate) which is nice to see after getting killed by 2 winning lay bets on the first day. we shall see how it gets on in the future?


Catterick
14:25 BTP Altered Method 0.75 Units
15:00 BTP Tunes Of Glory 0.75 Units
15:35 BTP Undercover Brother 1 Uint
16:10 Pass
16:45 BTW Je Suis Charlie 2 Units
17:20 Pass
17:55 Dutch Jack Nevison and Bernies Boy 2 units
18:25 Dutch Melaniemillie,Blue Jacket and Donnellys Rainbow 2.5 units

Navan
13:50 BTWP Asbury Boss 0.5 Units each
14:20 BTW Fiesole 1 Unit
14:55 Pass
15:50 Dutch Meadow Cross, Better Back Bob and The Trigger 3 UNITS
16:05 BTW Call The Taxie 1.5 Units and BTP Star Counsel 0.75 Units
16:40 BTW Katnap 3 Units
17:10 BTP Ballinlina Boy 1 Unit


Newbury
13:15 BTWP Fennaan and Gronkowski 1 unit each both
13:45 BTWP Capital Flight 1 Unit each
14:15 Dutch Secret Number , Fabricate and Dylan Mouth 1.5 unit total
14:50 BTW Invincible Army 1 Unit
15:25 BTWP Teodoro and First Flight 1 unit each both
16:00 BTWP Hit The Bid 1.5 units both
16:35 BTW Weekender 2 units and BTP Youre Hired
17:05 Dutch Killay and Katheefa 2.5 Units

Newmarket
13:25 BTW Hadith 1 Unit
14:00 BTW The Statesman 1 Unit
14:35 BTWP Langlauf and Tarte Tropezienne 1 unit each both
15:10 BTWP Sternrubin 1 unit each
15:45 BTP Speed Craft 0.5 Units
16:20 BTWP Medieval 1 unit each
16:55 BTWP Open Wide 1 uit each
17:30 BTP Shenanigans 2 units

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:51 pm

and this evenings races , a little earlier than ideal but i have to go out this afternoon and likely not returning before the first race.

Wolverhampton
17:40 Dutch Elusivity and Lady Joanna Vassa 1.5 units total
18:10 Dutch Treaty Of Rome, Lord Cooper and The Amber Fort 1.75 unit total
18:40 BTWP Logi 1 Unit each
19:10 BTWP Highland Mary 2 units each and Mirek 0.75 units
19:40 MIss
20:10 Dutch Fleeting Visit and Gavlar 3 Units
20:40 BTW The Way You Dance 2 Units and BTP Captain Swift 1 unit
21:10 BTW Jumping Around 2 units


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