Advanced Analytics

It appears that some posters want to put selections up without any reasoning. This is the forum where they can be posted. "Selection only" post found elsewhere will be deleted
LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Sun Sep 24, 2017 12:37 pm

well fridays good results were soon wiped out but a disastrous saturday which saw some aggressive staking (looks like sunday is going to be the same) that will be curbed in the future by adding a correct value for each total but being results orientated should be avoided as much as possible as if it would have been a great day then nothing is said but as in the OP i do believe a value conversion is needed but we are just not at that point yet. Lets see what today brings?

Naas
14:00 BTP James Cook 3 units
14:30 BTWP Ballet Shoes 1 units each
Miss
15:30 BTW Would You Believe 2 Units
16:00 BTW Quiet Reflection 5 Units
16:30 BTWP Spirit Quartz 0.75 units each
Miss
17:30 BTW Pincheck 2.5 Units



Plumpton
13:50 BTW Gibson Park 2 Units
14:20 Dutch Free Stone Hill and East Indies 2.5 Units
14:50 Miss
15:20 Dutch Jumping Jack and The Raven Master 2 Units
15:50 BTW Holly Bush Henry 1.5 units and BTP Mercers Court 0.75 units
16:20 Dutch Ramore Will and Vital Evidence 3 units
16:50 BTWP Too Many Diamonds and Rob Robin 1 unit each for both

Uttoxeter
13:40 Dutch Western Jo , Brass Monkey and Aristocracy 2.5 Units
14:10 BTW Whoshotwho 3 units
14:40 BTWP Vivas and Crookstown 1.5 units each for both
15:10 Dutch Knight Commander and Maximus Maridius 3 Units
15:40 BTWP Midnight Cowboy and Exitas 1 unit each for both
16:10 BTWP Khismet 1 unit each
16:40 BTWP Yourholidayisover and Whats Up Rory 1 unit each for both
17:10 BTWP Wells Gold and Mole trap 1.5 units each for both

dannyboy65
Posts: 78
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:47 pm

Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby dannyboy65 » Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:51 pm

Nice thread, I wonder what it would be like minus the lays and dutches.

LoveWinners
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:05 pm

thank you dannyboy, I think with just 4 days of the posting only its too early to say as previously its all worked out just fine over the period i tested but its always tough to say where and when an edge will evaporate, profited over 27 units today so a nice little comeback but its all rather meaningless at this stage but will not take long to see if an edge is found unlike low selection methods that contain too much noise in the data to rely upon.

as to your Query there have been 71 races invested with a total outlay of 141 units and a profit of +36.29 for a +25.74% return. This is far bigger thn it should be with the sheer volume and full 5% commission take out , if it stayed at that point i would simply drop the lays and dutch bets and plan where ill be retiring :lol: it would be impossible to keep those numbers up or anywhere near them and i would be happy around 3% return for the volume being analysed and even that may be ambitious as beating the bfsp over the long run is insanely difficult and it has stood the test of time for the accuracy of its model being a near perfect indicator of a horses chance of winning which is easy shown by looking at the break down of odds v winners in each group but no point mentioning that basic point on a forum as im sure its well known to everyone who visits here by now. Now of course we would ideally be simply trying to beat the actual price of the sp to show our profit but its simply not at that point yet.

if we then add in the lays

bets - p/l
2 (- 5.57)

Dutch bets
bets - pl - stakes
22 ( -11.89) 43.75


now if we look stakes 186.75 , pl +18.83 for a return of 10.08% which is much more realistic and still shows its ahead of the sp for now.


Thank you for your interest

tafflizgreg
Posts: 167
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2015 10:49 am

Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby tafflizgreg » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:51 pm

good results but I think Saturdays are allways tuff days so many competitive races

LoveWinners
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Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Sun Sep 24, 2017 8:27 pm

hello tafflizzgreg, Whilst its true its more competitive we should remember that we are rewarded more lucratively when we hit a good one, it all (or at least should) works round in the end. I guess the argument should be are we ever willing to take higher volatility for the reward? thats something i feel is a personal problem to solve as individuals i feel its the sheer dent it can put in a bank in a singular unit of time (daily) that will be in effect with this thread but im sure once we see large enough data then we shall see it doesnt really matter as i would bet it will see its largest winning days and losing days on saturdays not because the edge changes but the sheer amount of units one has to invest in a single day.


This can be used as anyone see's fit and is free source we should have open debates about anything whether individually we feel something is good or more important bad about the selections/thread.


Thank you for your input

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:26 pm

Kempton
13:50 BTP Iconic Knight 2 Units
14:25 BTP Harbour knights 0.75 Unit
14:55 BTWP Oasis Spear 0.5 Units Each
15:30 BTP Murasaki .075 Units
16:05 BTWP Poyle Charlotte 0.5 UNits Each
16:35 BTWP Naadirr and Tropics 1 unit each for both
17:05 BTWP Finelcity and Ventura Blues 1 unit each for both
17:35 BTWP Tailors Row and Peace And Plenty 0.75 units each for both

Leicester
14:00 Dutch Queen Of Kalahari and Hippeia 2.5 units
14:35 BTWP Kings Academy 1.5 units each
15:05 Lay Beachcomber Bay 1 unit
15:40 BTWP Somewhere Secret 1.5 units each both
16:15 BTWP Towie 1.5 units each both
16:45 BTW Royal Melody 1 unit
17:15 BTW Waves 1 Unit
17:45 BTWP Gatilo and Know The Truth 0.73 units each both

Roscommon
13:45 BTW Sirjack Thomas 1 unit
14:15 BTWP Dasheen and Keep believing 0.75 units each for both
14:50 MISS
15:20 Dutch Siempre Amigos and Lost History 2 units
15:55 BTW Montanna belle 3 units
16:30 Miss
17:00 BTP Statistical 1 unit
17:30 Miss

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby shakeshuck » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:00 pm

Hi LW,

It's nice to have you posting on here again. I hope any problems you were having are on the mend, and look forward to future insights. :)

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Tue Sep 26, 2017 12:50 pm

hello SS , long time no chat. I.m doing much better now although still getting used to the fact i will never be 100% again but who is these days? How are you? still grabbing some profits i hope :)



shall do chelmsford later

Bev
14:10 BTW Requinto Dawn 3 units
14:45 BTW Weellan 2 Units
15:15Dutch Chaplin Bay and The Stalking Moon 1.25 Units
15:50 BTW Alpha Delphini 2 units BTP Ornate 1 unit
16:25 BTWP Chiswick Bey 1 unit each
16:55 BTW River Icon 2 units
17:25 BTWP Royal Holiday and Im Super Too 0.75 units each for both

Ling
14:00 BTWP Pepper Street 1 unit each
14:35 BTWP Gripper 1 unit each
15:05 BTWP See And Be Seen and Meetings Man 0.75 units each both
15:40 BTW Adulate 1 unit
16:15 Miss
16:45 Dutch Easy Code, First Experience and Manangatang 3 units
17:15 Dutch Ask The Guru and Evening starlight 2 units
17:45 BTWP Silver Dixie 0.75 units each

War
13:50 Sword Of Fate BTWP 1 unit
14:25 Btw Dotties Dilema 1.5 units
14:55 BTW Lee Side Lady 1 unit
Miss
16:05 BTWP Fool To Cry 1 unit each
16:35 dutch Strongly Suggested, Lost Legend and Danandy 3 unit

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:22 pm

Tip
14:50 BTW A Likely Story 1 unit
15:20 BTWP Harbour Approach 1 unit each
15:55 BTW Blue Petal 1 unit
16:30 BTWP Path Of Silver 2 units each
17:00 BTW Longing 3 units
17:30 BTWP Ruby Quest and Punches Pious 0.75units each both

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Tue Sep 26, 2017 4:38 pm

chelmsford
17:40 BTWP Touch The Clouds 2 units each and Lesanti 1 unit each
18:10 BTWP Mr Potter
18:40 BTW Marchingontogether 2 units and BTP Equitant 1 unit
19:10 Dutch Best Example and Send Up 3 units
19:40 Dutch Bint Dandy and Harba 1.25 units
20:10 Dutch Considered Opinion and Wedding Photo 1.5 units
20:40 BTWP Annie Salts 1 unit each
21:10 BTWP Doctor Parkes 1.5 units each


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