Advanced Analytics

It appears that some posters want to put selections up without any reasoning. This is the forum where they can be posted. "Selection only" post found elsewhere will be deleted
LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:51 pm

good
BTWP Berkshire Spirit 1 unit each
BTWP Maggie Jonks 1 unit each
BTW Me Too Nagasaki 2.25 units
BTW Billesdon Bess 2 units
Dutch Graceland and Notice 2.5 units
Dutch Bahamian Sunrise and Nezar 1.5 units
BTW Jashma 2 units


Red
BTP Ray Purchase 0.75 units
Dutch Dream of Delphi and Milan Reef 2.5 units
BTW Al Hajar 3 units and BTP Farhh Away 1 unit
BTWP Muzaawel 1 unit each
BTWP Bronze Beau and Flach City 0.75 units each for both
BTW Fort Bastion 3.5 units and BTWP Fidelma Moon 0.75 units each
BTWP Desert Ruler 2 units each
BTWP Bogsnog 0.5 units

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:12 pm

sligo
BTw Golden Flowerpower 1 unit
BTW La Bella Vida 1 unit
BTW Presenting Mahler 3 units
BTW Coeur Joyeux 1 unit
BTW Some Drama 0.75 units
BTWP Mic Milano 0.75 units each
BTWP Paudi The Punter 0.75 units eacch

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
Contact:

Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:18 pm

perth
BTWP Rose Tree 1 unit each
BTW Barrys Jack 1 unit
BTWP Akkadian Empire 0.75 units
BTW Carrigdhoun 0.75 units
Dutch Sun Cloud and Tawseef 1.5 units
BTW Landmeafortune 2 units

kmoulds
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2016 4:47 pm

Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby kmoulds » Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:57 pm

Hi Will you be posting today as I have free afternoon

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby shakeshuck » Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:42 am

LoveWinners wrote:I.m doing much better now although still getting used to the fact i will never be 100% again but who is these days? How are you? still grabbing some profits I hope :)


I had a hospital visit and as such am now a few components short since last time we spoke. :!:
I also took a step back from the nags for a while, but have recently been playing with them again. Been trying out some modern techie approaches, but not found anything useful from that yet.

I agree with you about having to put a value on these selections of yours, but I'm not sure how to go about it. The common approach is to allocate a chance of winning against each horse in the race and calculate a price from that, then bet if the real price is 'value', but I'm not convinced that's the right way to do it.
To me, if a horse came out as (say) a 20% chance, would I think the bet was the same regardless of whether the price was 5/1 or 20/1? Of course not, especially as the Betfair price is considered realistic on average.
I think the BF price is relevant, and should be included in the calculation for working out the horse's estimated chance; but *how* to do that I have no idea.

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:38 pm

hi, sorry kmoulds i was unable to post yesterday due to being kept in under observation again which was a waste of time and resources, i have given up trying to argue the point although i am yet to be proven wrong yet :roll:


Dundalk
17:30 btwp Richard Strauss 0.75 unit
18:00 Dutch Check Your Pockets , City Ballerina and My Mystique 1.5 units
18:30 dutch Baroness and Palariva 1 unit
19:00 dutch Darkolva , Tooreen Katie and Beat Of My Heart 1 unit
19:30 btw Moviesta 3 units and btwp Have A Nice Day 0.5 units each
20:00 btwp War Decree 1 unit each
20:30 dutch Felix Mendelssohn , Spruce Meadows and Mountain Rock 1.5 units
21:00 BTWP Six Silver Lane and Ben Rumson

Gowran P
14:15 BTWP Storm Rising 0.5 units
14:50 BTW Iolani 1 unit
15:25 BTP Theatre Run 1 unit
16:00 BTW Mystic Theatre 2 units
16:35 BTWP Eiri Na Casca and Bye Bye O Bye 1 unit each both
miss
17:40 btwp Diamond Hill 0.75 units


Haydock
13:40 btwp Regal Mirage 1 unit each
14:10 btwp Buonarroti and King Of Scotland 1 unit each both
14:45 btw Kendergarten Kop 0.75 units
15:20 btw Maybride 2 unis
15:55 btw Porchy Party 1 unit
16:30 dutch orsinio and uber cool 1.5 units
17:05 dutch spring offensive , chosen character and magic city 1 unit
17:35 dutch Nazzaa , Stoneboat Bill and Hajaam 1.5 units

Newcastle
17:45 BTWP Clenymistra and Pioneertown 1 unit each both
18:15 BTWP Auspicion 3 units each and Rashfords Double 1.5 units each
18:45 Dutch Mamdood Newmarket Warrior and Briyouni 3 units
19:15 btwp Portledge 2 units each
19:45 BTWP B Fifty Two and Athollblair Boy 1 unit each both
2015 BTWP Broctune Papa Gio and Gun Case 0.75 units each both
20:45 BTWP Coviglia 1 unit each
21:15 btwp Imperial Legend 2 units each

Newmarket
13:50 BTWP La Figlia and Lincoln Rocks 1 unit each both
14:25 BTWP Elbereth 1.5 units each
15:00 BTWP Juliet Capulet 1unit each
15:35 BTW Beat The Bank 3 units
16:10 btw Coat Of Arms 1 unit
16:45 btwp Connecticut 1 unit
17:20 btwp Chiefofchiefs 2 units each

Worcester
1400 btw Indian Voyage 0,75 units
14:35 btw Kelvingrove 0.75 units
15:10 btw Double Treasure 1 unit
15:45 BTW Apple Of Our Eye 3 units
16:20 btw Kalimantan 2 units
16:55 btwp Phoebus Lescribaa 1 unit each

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
Contact:

Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:47 pm

miss
17:55 BTW New Millennium 3 units



Hi SS , sorry to hear you have had a rough time also, well we are still here so thats the important thing :)

Yes i agree there needs much more work and its nowhere near the power ratings i produced but im not to concerned yet as i feel there can be some adjustments which is ideal to continue to work on a little project 8-)


glad you are getting back into things and shall keep an eye out for your posts when im on the forum side and not the main site running the numbers , although that is near 15 hours a day :lol:

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby shakeshuck » Fri Sep 29, 2017 1:47 pm

Now that's what I call commitment. :)

kmoulds
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2016 4:47 pm

Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby kmoulds » Fri Sep 29, 2017 2:49 pm

A couple of nice winners so far sorry to hear of your problems i was wondering how you come up with the scoring for each race ? it must be quite time consuming .

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
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Re: Advanced Analytics

Postby LoveWinners » Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:30 am

sorry for my delayed absence, time to get back to work...


Newmarket
12:35 BTW Porth Swtan 2units
110 BTWP Medalla De Oro 1 unit each
145 BTW One Minute 2 units
220 BTW Consequences 1 unit
255 BTW Donnachies Girl 1 unit
330 BTW Graceful Lady 1 unit
405 BTW Swiss Storm 3 units and BTWP Salt Whistle Bay 1 unit each

Uttoxeter
Miss
135 BTWP Huntsman Son 1 unit
210 BTWP Darloa 3 units each
miss
320 BTW Ephraim 3 units
355 Dutch Timon's Tara and tara mist 1.5 units

wetherby
1250 BTWP Knight Commander 3 units each
miss
200 BTW Malaya 5 units
235 BTW Zamdy Man 2 units
310 BTW Aristo Du Plessis 3 units


shall try to get back online later for this evening cards


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